Exam 14: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Instruction 14-6 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the four-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: $\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q _ { 1 } - 0.054 Q _ { 2 } + 0.098 Q _ { 3 }$ Where $X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2005 . $Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Instruction 14-6,to obtain a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2006 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?

In selecting an appropriate forecasting model,which of the following approaches is suggested?

Paasche price index is a form of unweighted aggregate price index.

Instruction 14-15 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-15,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.9 for both level and trend will be used to forecast the number of arrivals.The forecast for the seventh Monday is _______.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to forecast wine sales.The forecast for 2011 is _______.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to smooth the wine sales.The value of E₂,the smoothed value for 2004 is _______.

Instruction 14-15 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-15,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.3 for both level and trend will be used to forecast the number of arrivals.The forecast for the seventh Monday is_________.

Instruction 14-19 Business closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 were: 2005 10 2005 11 2007 13 2008 19 2009 24 2010 35 Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SIMMARY OUTIPU - Second-Order Mode Coefficients Intercept -5.77 X Variable 1 0.80 X Variable 2 1.14 SIMMARY OUTPUT - Fist-Order Model Coefficients Intercept -4.16 X Variable 1 1.59 -Referring to Instruction 14-19,the fitted values for the first-order autoregressive model are _______,_______,_______,_______ and _______.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.2 will be used to smooth the wine sales.The value of E₄,the smoothed value for 2006 is _______.

To assess the adequacy of a forecasting model,one measure that is often used is

When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing,

Instruction 14-2 The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first six months of last year. Month Complaints January 36 February 45 March 81 April 50 May 108 June 144 -Referring to Instruction 14-2,if a three-term moving average is used to smooth this series,what would be the second calculated value?

Instruction 14-19 Business closures in Perth from 2005 to 2010 were: 2005 10 2005 11 2007 13 2008 19 2009 24 2010 35 Microsoft Excel was used to fit both first-order and second-order autoregressive models, resulting in the following partial outputs: SIMMARY OUTIPU - Second-Order Mode Coefficients Intercept -5.77 X Variable 1 0.80 X Variable 2 1.14 SIMMARY OUTPUT - Fist-Order Model Coefficients Intercept -4.16 X Variable 1 1.59 -Referring to Instruction 14-19,the residuals for the first-order autoregressive model are _______,_______,_______,_______and _______.

Instruction 14-6 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the four-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: $\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q _ { 1 } - 0.054 Q _ { 2 } + 0.098 Q _ { 3 }$ Where $X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2005 . $Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Instruction 14-6,the best interpretation of the coefficient of Q₂ (-0.054)in the regression equation is:

A price index for a market basket of good,all weighted equally,is called a(n)

Instruction 14-4 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-4,the number of arrivals will be exponentially smoothed with a smoothing constant of 0.1.Then the forecast for the seventh Monday will be_______

The Holt-Winters method of forecasting includes future trend.

Which of the following terms describes the up and down movements of a time series that vary both in length and intensity?

Instruction 14-15 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-15,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.9 for both level and trend will be used to smooth the number of arrivals.The smoothed values of the level and trend for the second Monday are _______ and _______,respectively.

Instruction 14-6 A local store developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast its revenues in future quarters, using quarterly data on its revenues during the four-year period from 2005 to 2009. The following is the resulting regression equation: $\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 6.102 + 0.012 X - 0.129 Q _ { 1 } - 0.054 Q _ { 2 } + 0.098 Q _ { 3 }$ Where $X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2005 . $Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Instruction 14-6,to obtain a forecast for the third quarter of 2010 using the model,which of the following sets of values should be used in the regression equation?