Exam 14: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,the Holt-Winters method for forecasting with smoothing constant of 0.8 for both level and trend will be used to forecast the wine sales.The forecast for 2014 is _______.

Instruction 14-5 A contractor developed a multiplicative time-series model to forecast the number of contracts in future quarters, using quarterly data on number of contracts during the three-year period from 2008 to 2010. The following is the resulting regression equation: $\log _ { 10 } \hat { Y } = 3.37 + 0.117 X - 0.083 Q _ { 1 } + 1.28 Q _ { 2 } + 0.617 Q _ { 3 }$ Where $\hat { Y }$ is the estimated number of contracts in a quarter. $X$ is the coded quarterly value with $X = 0$ in the first quarter of 2008 . $Q _ { 1 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the first quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 2 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the second quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. $Q _ { 3 }$ is a dummy variable equal to 1 in the third quarter of a year and 0 otherwise. -Referring to Instruction 14-5,in testing the coefficient of X in the regression equation (0.117),the results were a t-statistic of 9.08 and an associated p-value of 0.0000.Which of the following is the best interpretation of this result?

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,use the Holt-Winters method of fitting wine sales to compute the smoothed level and trend with a smoothing constant of 0.8 for both level and trend.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,a centred three-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The moving average for 2007 is _______.

The Laspeyres price index is an example of an unweighted aggregate price index.

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,a centred five-year moving average is to be constructed for the wine sales.The moving average for 2005 is _______.

Instruction 14-21 Given below are the average prices for three types of energy products in Australia from 2006 to 2010. Year Electricity Natural Gas Fuel Oil 2006 43.205 25.893 0.892 2007 16.959 28.749 0.969 2008 47.202 28.933 1.034 2009 48.874 29.872 0.913 2010 48.693 28.384 0.983 -Referring to Instruction 14-21,what is the unweighted price index for the group of three energy items in 2008 using 2006 as the base year?

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only 13 three-year moving averages.

Instruction 14-19 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-14,plot both the wine sales series and the series of Holt-Winters forecast for 2011 to 2014 using a smoothing constant of 0.2 for both level and trend.

The fairly regular fluctuations that occur within each year would be contained in the _______ component.

Which of the following terms describes the overall long-term tendency of a time series?

Instruction 14-3 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-3,exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to forecast wine sales.The forecast for 2011 is _______.

For a price index,it is preferable to select the base period in a period of economic stability.

Quantitative forecasting methods are highly subjective and judgmental.

Instruction 14-8 The number of cases of merlot wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Cases of Wine 2003 270 2004 356 2005 398 2006 456 2007 358 2008 500 2009 410 2010 376 -Referring to Instruction 14-8,construct a centred three-year moving average for the wine sales.

Instruction 14-21 Given below are the average prices for three types of energy products in Australia from 2006 to 2010. Year Electricity Natural Gas Fuel Oil 2006 43.205 25.893 0.892 2007 16.959 28.749 0.969 2008 47.202 28.933 1.034 2009 48.874 29.872 0.913 2010 48.693 28.384 0.983 -Referring to Instruction 14-21,what is the Laspeyres price index for the group of three energy items in 2009 for a family that consumed 15 units of electricity,24 units of natural gas and 200 units of fuel oil in 2006 using 2006 as the base year?

Instruction 14-1 The number of cases of chardonnay wine sold by a Barossa Valley Winery in an eight-year period follows. Year Coses of Wine 1991 270 1992 356 1993 398 1994 456 1995 438 1996 478 1997 460 1998 480 -Referring to Instruction 14-1,does there appear to be a relationship between year and the number of cases of wine sold?

Instruction 14-9 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1980. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1990 is coded as 0, 1991 is coded as 1, etc. SUMMAROUIPUT Regression Statistics MultipleR 0.604 R Square 0.365 Adjusted R Square 0.316 standard Error 4.800 Observations 17 Coeflients Intercept 31.2 Coded Year 0.78 -Referring to Instruction 14-9,the forecast for sales (in millions of dollars)in 2015 is _______

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only seven nine-year moving averages.

Instruction 14-4 The number of train passengers arriving in Adelaide on the Overland on six successive Mondays were: 60, 72, 96, 84, 36 and 48. -Referring to Instruction 14-4,the number of arrivals will be smoothed with a five-term moving average.The last smoothed value will be_______.