Question 1

Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because

Accepted Answer

A) short-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts. 
B) short-term forecasts have more standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts. 
C) long-term forecasts have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts. 
D) long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts. 
A) short-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts. 
B) short-term forecasts have more standard deviation of error relative to the mean than long-term forecasts. 
C) long-term forecasts have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts. 
D) long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts. D

Question 2

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

Accepted Answer

A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality. B

Question 3

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
 $\begin{array}{|l|c|}
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the trend component of Holt's model for period 0?

Accepted Answer

A) -2.5 
B) 10.3 
C) 2.5 
D) 6.4 
A) -2.5 
B) 10.3 
C) 2.5 
D) 6.4 B

Question 4

Most firms that employ forecasting do not maintain any estimates of forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error?

Accepted Answer

A) MDE 
B) MKE 
C) MAD 
D) MES 
A) MDE 
B) MKE 
C) MAD 
D) MES

Question 6

Leaders in many supply chains have started moving

Accepted Answer

A) toward independent forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
B) toward consecutive forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
C) toward sequential forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
D) toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
A) toward independent forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
B) toward consecutive forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
C) toward sequential forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand. 
D) toward collaborative forecasting to improve their ability to match supply and demand.

Question 7

Scenario 7.3
The Entrepreneurship professor had a habit of oversupplying extra credit opportunities for his class each semester and his colleagues delighted in trying to forecast his class enrollment from one semester to the next.The forecasts for one colleague,along with the actual class enrollment,appear in the table.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Period } & \text { Actual } & \text { Forecast } \
\hline 1 & 173 & 166.7 \
\hline 2 & 177 & 183 \
\hline 3 & 180 & 174.7 \
\hline 4 & 151 & 163.2 \
\hline 5 & 168 & 155.6 \
\hline 6 & 184 & 187.6 \
\hline 7 & 198 & 192.9 \
\hline 8 & 191 & 194.6 \
\hline 9 & 167 & 149.8 \
\hline 10 & 177 & 195.2 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-Calculate the MAD for this scenario.

Accepted Answer

A) 10.04 
B) 8.99 
C) 10.40 
D) 9.25 
A) 10.04 
B) 8.99 
C) 10.40 
D) 9.25

Question 8

Scenario 7.4 - Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-Develop forecasts for June through October using these techniques: moving average of two period,simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.8,and Holt's method.For the exponential smoothing model assume that the forecast for May is the actual demand for May.Comment on the use of these three methods to generate a forecast in this situation.

Accepted Answer

The moving average of two periods result

Question 9

The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt's Model)forecast method is appropriate when

Accepted Answer

A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend but no seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
A) demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B) demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C) demand has observable trend but no seasonality. 
D) demand has no observable level or seasonality.

Question 10

What is the forecast for June using Holt's model with an alpha of 0.1 and a beta of 0.2?

Accepted Answer

A) 69,612 
B) 69,121 
C) 70,082 
D) 70,499 
A) 69,612 
B) 69,121 
C) 70,082 
D) 70,499

Question 11

Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as

Accepted Answer

A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods. 
A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods.

Question 12

Mature products with stable demand

Accepted Answer

A) are usually easiest to forecast. 
B) are usually hardest to forecast. 
C) cannot be forecast. 
D) do not need to be forecast. 
A) are usually easiest to forecast. 
B) are usually hardest to forecast. 
C) cannot be forecast. 
D) do not need to be forecast.

Question 13

For pull processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 14

The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is

Accepted Answer

A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal. 
A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal.

Question 15

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

Accepted Answer

A) 78,666 
B) 642 
C) 462 
D) 66,768 
A) 78,666 
B) 642 
C) 462 
D) 66,768

Question 17

The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

Accepted Answer

A) level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B) level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C) (level + trend)× seasonal factor. 
D) level × (trend + seasonal factor). 
A) level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B) level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C) (level + trend)× seasonal factor. 
D) level × (trend + seasonal factor).

Question 18

A static method of forecasting

Accepted Answer

A) assumes that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B) assumes that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed. 
C) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D) All of the above are true. 
A) assumes that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B) assumes that the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed. 
C) the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D) All of the above are true.

Question 19

________ forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. ).

Accepted Answer

A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation 
A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation

Question 20

Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g. ,the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. )to make a forecast are known as

Accepted Answer

A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods. 
A) qualitative forecasting methods. 
B) time series forecasting methods. 
C) causal forecasting methods. 
D) simulation forecasting methods.

Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the trend component of Holt's model for period 0?

Most firms that employ forecasting do not maintain any estimates of forecast error.

Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error?

Leaders in many supply chains have started moving

The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt's Model)forecast method is appropriate when

What is the forecast for June using Holt's model with an alpha of 0.1 and a beta of 0.2?

Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as

Mature products with stable demand

For pull processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.

The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

A static method of forecasting

________ forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. ).

Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g. ,the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. )to make a forecast are known as

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters

Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

Scenario 7.1 - Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the trend component of Holt's model for period 0?

Most firms that employ forecasting do not maintain any estimates of forecast error.

Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error?

Leaders in many supply chains have started moving

The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt's Model)forecast method is appropriate when

What is the forecast for June using Holt's model with an alpha of 0.1 and a beta of 0.2?

Forecasting methods that use historical demand to make a forecast are known as

Mature products with stable demand

For pull processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.

The measure of forecast error where the average absolute error of each forecast is shown as a percentage of demand is

In adaptive forecasting,the estimates of level,trend,and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

The multiplicative form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

A static method of forecasting

________ forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. ).

Forecasting methods that assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment (e.g. ,the state of the economy,interest rates,etc. )to make a forecast are known as

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters