Question 1

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

Accepted Answer

A) level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B) level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C) (level + trend)× seasonal factor. 
D) level × (trend + seasonal factor). 
A) level × trend × seasonal factor. 
B) level + trend + seasonal factor. 
C) (level + trend)× seasonal factor. 
D) level × (trend + seasonal factor).

Question 2

What Excel function/feature should be used to minimize the mean squared error for an exponential smoothing model?

Accepted Answer

A) Solver 
B) =EXPON 
C) =ALPHA 
D) Goal seek 
A) Solver 
B) =EXPON 
C) =ALPHA 
D) Goal seek

Question 3

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

Accepted Answer

A) plan the service level. 
B) plan the level of available capacity and inventory. 
C) plan the level of productivity. 
D) plan the level of production. 
A) plan the service level. 
B) plan the level of available capacity and inventory. 
C) plan the level of productivity. 
D) plan the level of production.

Question 4

A static time-series method should be used when the estimates for level,seasonality and trend may be based solely on historical data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Accepted Answer

A) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
B) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal. 
A) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
B) mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal.

Question 6

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Accepted Answer

A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal. 
A) mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B) mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C) bias. 
D) the tracking signal.

Question 8

Explain the basic,six-step approach to help an organization perform effective forecasting.

Accepted Answer

The following basic,six-step approach he

Question 9

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Accepted Answer

A) aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B) disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C) short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D) long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts. 
A) aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B) disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C) short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D) long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts.

Question 10

The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

Accepted Answer

A) should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. 
B) should not include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. 
C) should only be used when there are no accurate estimates. 
D) should be missing the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. 
A) should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. 
B) should not include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error. 
C) should only be used when there are no accurate estimates. 
D) should be missing the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

Question 12

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation 
A) Qualitative 
B) Time-series 
C) Causal 
D) Simulation

Question 13

Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

Accepted Answer

A) scheduling. 
B) promotions. 
C) plant/equipment investment. 
D) purchasing. 
A) scheduling. 
B) promotions. 
C) plant/equipment investment. 
D) purchasing.

Question 14

The goal of any forecasting method is to

Accepted Answer

A) predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component. 
B) predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component. 
C) predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component. 
D) predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component. 
A) predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component. 
B) predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component. 
C) predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component. 
D) predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component.

Question 15

Scenario 7.2 - Gulab Greatness
Historical demand for gulab jamun from a sweet stall on Commercial Road is as displayed in the table.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \begin{array} { c } 
\text { Demand } \
\text { (orders) }
\end{array} \
\hline \text { January } & 66,753 \
\hline \text { February } & 67,686 \
\hline \text { March } & 68,641 \
\hline \text { April } & 68,979 \
\hline \text { May } & 69,278 \
\hline \text { June } & 69,577 \
\hline \text { July } & 69,602 \
\hline \text { August } & 70,348 \
\hline \text { September } & 70,806 \
\hline \text { October } & 71,011 \
\hline \text { November } & 71,819 \
\hline \text { December } & 72,752 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for July.What is the forecast if α = 0.4 and the forecast for May was 69,000?

Accepted Answer

A) 69,346 
B) 69,379 
C) 69,500 
D) 69,298 
A) 69,346 
B) 69,379 
C) 69,500 
D) 69,298

Question 16

The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

What is the mean absolute percentage error?

Accepted Answer

A) 5.24% 
B) 5.61% 
C) 5.40% 
D) 5.06% 
A) 5.24% 
B) 5.61% 
C) 5.40% 
D) 5.06%

Question 18

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

The =MAPE(array1,array2)function in Excel can calculate the mean absolute percent error of any two data arrays of the same size.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting)?

Accepted Answer

A) 0.955 
B) -3.188 
C) 1.004 
D) 2.623 
A) 0.955 
B) -3.188 
C) 1.004 
D) 2.623

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

What Excel function/feature should be used to minimize the mean squared error for an exponential smoothing model?

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

A static time-series method should be used when the estimates for level,seasonality and trend may be based solely on historical data.

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Explain the basic,six-step approach to help an organization perform effective forecasting.

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

The goal of any forecasting method is to

The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

What is the mean absolute percentage error?

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

The =MAPE(array1,array2)function in Excel can calculate the mean absolute percent error of any two data arrays of the same size.

What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting)?

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters

Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

What Excel function/feature should be used to minimize the mean squared error for an exponential smoothing model?

For push processes,a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

A static time-series method should be used when the estimates for level,seasonality and trend may be based solely on historical data.

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

The measure of how significantly a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Explain the basic,six-step approach to help an organization perform effective forecasting.

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

Personnel can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

The goal of any forecasting method is to

The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

What is the mean absolute percentage error?

Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts,as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

The =MAPE(array1,array2)function in Excel can calculate the mean absolute percent error of any two data arrays of the same size.

What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting)?

Understanding the Supply Chain

Achieving Strategic Fit in a Supply Chain

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to E-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in a Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Linking Product Availability to Profits

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters