Exam 5: Uncertainty and Consumer Behavior

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Individuals who fully insure their house and belongings against fire

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Scenario 5.3: Wanting to invest in the computer games industry, you select Whizbo, Yowzo and Zowiebo as the three best firms. Over the past 10 years, the three firms have had good years and bad years. The following table shows their performance: Scenario 5.3: Wanting to invest in the computer games industry, you select Whizbo, Yowzo and Zowiebo as the three best firms. Over the past 10 years, the three firms have had good years and bad years. The following table shows their performance:    -Refer to Scenario 5.3. Where is the highest expected revenue, based on the 10 years' past performance? -Refer to Scenario 5.3. Where is the highest expected revenue, based on the 10 years' past performance?

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Consider the following statements when answering this question; I. Without fire insurance, the expected value of home ownership for a risk averse homeowner is $W. Insurance companies are willing to sell this homeowner a policy that guarantees the homeowner a wealth of $W. II. In a neighborhood where the price of houses are identical, the probability of a fire is identical, and the value of damage done by fires is identical, the risk premium for an insurance policy that repays all the cost of the fire damage does not vary across homeowners.

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Assume that one of two possible outcomes will follow a decision. One outcome yields a $75 payoff and has a probability of 0.3; the other outcome has a $125 payoff and has a probability of 0.7. In this case the expected value is

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Which of the following assets is almost riskless?

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Scenario 5.10: Hillary can invest her family savings in two assets: riskless Treasury bills or a risky vacation home real estate project on an Arkansas river. The expected return on Treasury bills is 4 percent with a standard deviation of zero. The expected return on the real estate project is 30 percent with a standard deviation of 40 percent. -Refer to Scenario 5.10. If Hillary invests 30 percent of her savings in the real estate project and the remainder in Treasury bills, the expected return on her portfolio is:

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The indifference curves of two investors are plotted against a single budget line. Indifference curve A is shown as tangent to the budget line at a point to the left of indifference curve B's tangency to the same line.

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The information in the table below describes choices for a new doctor. The outcomes represent different macroeconomic environments, which the individual cannot predict.Table 5.3 The information in the table below describes choices for a new doctor. The outcomes represent different macroeconomic environments, which the individual cannot predict.Table 5.3    -Refer to Table 5.3. Rank the doctor's job choices in order, least risky first. -Refer to Table 5.3. Rank the doctor's job choices in order, least risky first.

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Scenario 5.4: Suppose an individual is considering an investment in which there are exactly three possible outcomes, whose probabilities and pay-offs are given below: Scenario 5.4: Suppose an individual is considering an investment in which there are exactly three possible outcomes, whose probabilities and pay-offs are given below:    The expected value of the investment is $25. Although all the information is correct, information is missing. -Refer to Scenario 5.4. What is the variance of the investment? The expected value of the investment is $25. Although all the information is correct, information is missing. -Refer to Scenario 5.4. What is the variance of the investment?

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Scenario 5.10: Hillary can invest her family savings in two assets: riskless Treasury bills or a risky vacation home real estate project on an Arkansas river. The expected return on Treasury bills is 4 percent with a standard deviation of zero. The expected return on the real estate project is 30 percent with a standard deviation of 40 percent. -Refer to Scenario 5.10. Hillary's indifference curves showing her preferences toward risk and return can be shown in a diagram. Expected return is plotted on the vertical axis and standard deviation of return on the horizontal axis. Although her indifference curves are upward sloping and bowed downward, their slope is very gradual (they are almost horizontal). These indifference curves reveal that Hillary is:

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Scenario 5.10: Hillary can invest her family savings in two assets: riskless Treasury bills or a risky vacation home real estate project on an Arkansas river. The expected return on Treasury bills is 4 percent with a standard deviation of zero. The expected return on the real estate project is 30 percent with a standard deviation of 40 percent. -Refer to Scenario 5.10. Hillary's indifference curves showing her preferences toward risk and return can be shown in a diagram. Expected return is plotted on the vertical axis and standard deviation of return on the horizontal axis. Although her indifference curves are upward sloping and bowed downward, their slope is very gradual (they are almost horizontal). With these indifference curves Hillary will invest:

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Scenario 5.10: Hillary can invest her family savings in two assets: riskless Treasury bills or a risky vacation home real estate project on an Arkansas river. The expected return on Treasury bills is 4 percent with a standard deviation of zero. The expected return on the real estate project is 30 percent with a standard deviation of 40 percent. -Refer to Scenario 5.10. If Hillary invests 30 percent of her savings in the real estate project and remainder in Treasury bills, the standard deviation of her portfolio is:

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Connie's utility depends upon her income. Her utility function is U = I1/2. She has received a prize that depends on the roll of a pair of dice. If she rolls a 3, 4, 6 or 8, she will receive $400. Otherwise she will receive $100. a. What is the expected payoff from this prize? [Hint: The probability of rolling a 3 is 1/18, the probability of rolling a 4 is 3/36, the probability of rolling a 6 is 5/36, and the probability of rolling an 8 is 5/36.] b. What is the expected utility from this prize? c. Connie is offered an alternate prize of $169 (no dice roll is required). Will she accept the alternate prize or roll the dice? d. What is the minimum payment that Connie will accept to forego the roll of the dice?

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In figure below, what is true about the two jobs? In figure below, what is true about the two jobs?

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Describe Larry, Judy and Carol's risk preferences. Their utility as a function of income is given as follows Larry: UL(I) = 10 Describe Larry, Judy and Carol's risk preferences. Their utility as a function of income is given as follows Larry: U<sub>L</sub>(I) = 10    . Judy: U<sub>J</sub> (I) = 3I<sup>2</sup>. Carol: U<sub>C</sub> (I) = 20I. . Judy: UJ (I) = 3I2. Carol: UC (I) = 20I.

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Upon graduation, you are offered three jobs. Upon graduation, you are offered three jobs.   Rank the three job offers in terms of expected income, from the highest to the lowest. Rank the three job offers in terms of expected income, from the highest to the lowest.

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Scenario 5.5: Engineers at Jalopy Automotive have discovered a safety flaw in their new model car. It would cost $500 per car to fix the flaw, and 10,000 cars have been sold. The company works out the following possible scenarios for what might happen if the car is not fixed, and assigns probabilities to those events: Scenario Probability Cost A. No one discovers flaw .15 $0 B. Government fines firm .40 $10 million (no lawsuits) C. Resulting lawsuits are lost .30 $12 million (no government fine) D. Resulting lawsuits are won .15 $2 million (no government fine) -Refer to Scenario 5.5. Which of the following statements is true?

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Scenario 5.3: Wanting to invest in the computer games industry, you select Whizbo, Yowzo and Zowiebo as the three best firms. Over the past 10 years, the three firms have had good years and bad years. The following table shows their performance: Scenario 5.3: Wanting to invest in the computer games industry, you select Whizbo, Yowzo and Zowiebo as the three best firms. Over the past 10 years, the three firms have had good years and bad years. The following table shows their performance:    -Refer to Scenario 5.3. The expected revenue from all three companies combined is -Refer to Scenario 5.3. The expected revenue from all three companies combined is

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What form of irrational behavior can cause asset price bubbles?

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Scenario 5.8: Risk-neutral Icarus Airlines must commit now to leasing 1, 2, or 3 new airplanes. It knows with certainty that on the basis of business travel alone, it will need at least 1 airplane. The marketing division says that there is a 50% chance that tourism will be big enough for a second plane only. Otherwise, tourism will be big enough for a third plane. This, plus revenue information, yields the following table: Planes Tourism Revenue Expected Leased Light Heavy Profit 2 $90 million $30 million $60 million 3 $10 million $140 million $75 million -Refer to Scenario 5.8. The value to Icarus Airlines of complete information is

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