Exam 10: Decision Models With Uncertainty and Risk

Use the data set shown below to answer the following question(s). For this Newsvendor model,fit a distribution with Crystal Ball and use the Decision Table tool for analysis.Use 5,000 trials for the simulation. -Using Crystal Ball for the data set shown above,identify the purchase quantity that provides the largest average profit.

Explain instances where we have to use the Bootstrap tool in Crystal Ball.

What is bootstrapping in Crystal Ball?

In the analytical approach,if more than one critical path exists in a project management model,the path with the ________ is used.

In the analytical approach,the probabilities of completing the project within a certain time are computed assuming that ________.

In Crystal Ball,uncertain inputs are called ________.

Determine the approximate cumulative profit that Captain Jack Automobiles is likely to realize with a probability of 0.20 in the third year.

With the inherent uncertainty in sales forecasts,________ is an appropriate tool to analyze cash budgets.

From the forecast charts for accepting 210 reservations,using the above data,there is about a(n)________ chance of overbooking at least one customer.

Define risk and risk analysis.

If a simulation has multiple related forecasts,the ________ feature in Crystal Ball allows an individual to superimpose the frequency data from selected forecasts on one chart in order to compare differences and similarities that might not be apparent.

Use the data set shown below to answer the following question(s). The demand at the ticket booking center can be modeled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 220.Assume that each reservation has a constant probability of p = 0.02 of being cancelled.Use Crystal Ball functions for the model. -For the data given above,which of the following Crystal Ball functions determines the customer demand?

The ________ in Crystal Ball is used to define an assumption based on the empirical distribution of the data.

An individual using Crystal Ball can choose to use the same sequence of random numbers for generating the random variates in the assumption cells.The above mentioned function can be found in the ________.

The spider chart shows the results as rates of change; ________.

For the given data set,the probability of a positive NPV value over the five years is ________.

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball for the cumulative net profit of a particular year,you intend to find the chances that the forecast value will show a cumulative profit in that particular year.In this scenario,you should ________.

Explain how to fit distributions with Crystal Ball.

________ is the probability of occurrence of an undesirable outcome.

Prior to running the simulation,using the Tornado Chart tool in Crystal Ball,for assumptions,creates two charts; a tornado chart and a ________.