Question 1

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the fifth year?

Accepted Answer

A) approximately 76% 
B) approximately 99.83% 
C) approximately 11.08% 
D) approximately 88.92% 
A) approximately 76% 
B) approximately 99.83% 
C) approximately 11.08% 
D) approximately 88.92%

Question 2

In Crystal Ball,uncertain inputs are called forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 3

Which of the following contains the Trials Tab that allows an individual to choose the number of times that Crystal Ball generates assumptions for the assumption cells in the model and recalculates the entire spreadsheet?

Accepted Answer

A) the Correlation matrix in the More Tools group 
B) the Run preferences item from the Run group 
C) the Custom item from the Assumptions group 
D) the Cell Preferences tab on the main ribbon 
A) the Correlation matrix in the More Tools group 
B) the Run preferences item from the Run group 
C) the Custom item from the Assumptions group 
D) the Cell Preferences tab on the main ribbon

Question 4

Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
Captain Jack Automobiles launched a new car and tabulated the below data for the new launch.   The project manager identified the following distributions and parameters for these variables:
Market size: normal with a mean of 2,000,000 units and a standard deviation of 400,000 units
R&D costs: uniform between $639,000,000 and $781,000,000
Test Drives: lognormal with mean of $160,000,000 and standard deviation $16,000,000
Annual market growth factor: triangular with minimum = 2%,maximum = 6%,and most likely = 3%
Annual market share growth rate: triangular with minimum = 15%,maximum = 25%,and most likely = 20%
Use 5,000 trials to generate the simulation model using Crystal Ball.
-The individual using Crystal Ball to simulate the given data should treat the cell containing the value of market size as a(n)________.

Accepted Answer

A) forecast 
B) decision 
C) assumption 
D) run preference 
A) forecast 
B) decision 
C) assumption 
D) run preference

Question 5

In the data table generated along with the tornado chart,the tool examines values ________.

Accepted Answer

A) 10% away from the downside and evaluates the selected forecast holding the other forecasts constant 
B) 12.5% away from the downside and evaluates the selected forecast holding all the other forecasts constant 
C) 12.5% away from the upside and evaluates the selected forecast while holding all other variables constant 
D) 10% away from the base case and evaluates the selected forecast while holding all other variables constant 
A) 10% away from the downside and evaluates the selected forecast holding the other forecasts constant 
B) 12.5% away from the downside and evaluates the selected forecast holding all the other forecasts constant 
C) 12.5% away from the upside and evaluates the selected forecast while holding all other variables constant 
D) 10% away from the base case and evaluates the selected forecast while holding all other variables constant

Question 6

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball for the cumulative net profit of a particular year,you intend to find the cumulative profit for a given probability value.In this scenario,you should ________.

Accepted Answer

A) enter the probability value in the left range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
B) enter the probability value in the right range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
C) first anchor the right grabber at infinity and then enter the probability value in the Certainty box 
D) first anchor the left grabber at infinity and then enter the probability value in the Certainty box 
A) enter the probability value in the left range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
B) enter the probability value in the right range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
C) first anchor the right grabber at infinity and then enter the probability value in the Certainty box 
D) first anchor the left grabber at infinity and then enter the probability value in the Certainty box

Question 7

Use the data set shown below to answer the following question(s).   The demand at the ticket booking center can be modeled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 220.Assume that each reservation has a constant probability of p = 0.02 of being cancelled.Use Crystal Ball functions for the model.
-For the data given above,which of the following calculates the number of customer arrivals?

Accepted Answer

A) Reservation limit - Reservations made 
B) Reservation limit - Cancellations 
C) Cancellations + Reservations made 
D) Reservations made - Cancellations 
A) Reservation limit - Reservations made 
B) Reservation limit - Cancellations 
C) Cancellations + Reservations made 
D) Reservations made - Cancellations

Question 8

Explain the procedure associated with Decision Table tool in Crystal Ball.

Accepted Answer

The Decision Table tool is useful to ide

Question 9

In Crystal Ball,the Correlation Matrix tool allows an individual to define correlations between groups of assumptions in a model.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 10

In Crystal Ball,a tornado chart differs from a sensitivity chart in that the tornado chart ________.

Accepted Answer

A) is used only for normally distributed data 
B) is used only for uniformly distributed data 
C) analyzes sample statistics empirically by repeatedly sampling the data and creating distributions of the statistics 
D) tests each assumption independently while freezing the other variables at their base values 
A) is used only for normally distributed data 
B) is used only for uniformly distributed data 
C) analyzes sample statistics empirically by repeatedly sampling the data and creating distributions of the statistics 
D) tests each assumption independently while freezing the other variables at their base values

Question 11

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball,you intend to find the percentage of risk that the forecast over the specified period of time will not be positive.In this scenario,you should ________.

Accepted Answer

A) enter the number 0 in the left range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
B) enter the number 0 in the right range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
C) first anchor the right grabber at infinity and then enter 0 in the Certainty box 
D) first anchor the left grabber at infinity and then enter 0 in the Certainty box 
A) enter the number 0 in the left range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
B) enter the number 0 in the right range box of the forecast chart and press the enter key 
C) first anchor the right grabber at infinity and then enter 0 in the Certainty box 
D) first anchor the left grabber at infinity and then enter 0 in the Certainty box

Question 12

Use the data set shown below to answer the following question(s).   The demand at the ticket booking center can be modeled by a Poisson distribution with a mean of 220.Assume that each reservation has a constant probability of p = 0.02 of being cancelled.Use Crystal Ball functions for the model.
-For the data given above,identify the Crystal Ball function that models the number of cancellations.

Accepted Answer

A) CB.Poisson(0.02,Reservation limit) 
B) CB.Binomial(0.02,Reservation limit) 
C) CB.Poisson(0.02,Customer demand) 
D) CB.Binomial(0.02,Reservations made) 
A) CB.Poisson(0.02,Reservation limit) 
B) CB.Binomial(0.02,Reservation limit) 
C) CB.Poisson(0.02,Customer demand) 
D) CB.Binomial(0.02,Reservations made)

Question 13

List the steps used in Crystal Ball to run a Monte Carlo Simulation.

Accepted Answer

The steps are shown below: 
• Develop th

Question 14

Describe the procedure used to define assumptions in Crystal Ball.

Accepted Answer

To define assumptions in Crystal Ball,fi

Question 15

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the third year?

Accepted Answer

A) approximately 76% 
B) approximately 99.83% 
C) approximately 0.76% 
D) approximately 0.24% 
A) approximately 76% 
B) approximately 99.83% 
C) approximately 0.76% 
D) approximately 0.24%

Question 16

The Chart Bins in Crystal Ball helps in the extraction of ________.

Accepted Answer

A) the generated assumptions and forecast values for each simulation trial 
B) the intervals in the forecast chart along with their probability and frequency of occurrence 
C) percentiles 
D) the Scatter Charts that show correlations,dependencies,and other relationships between pairs of variables plotted against each other 
A) the generated assumptions and forecast values for each simulation trial 
B) the intervals in the forecast chart along with their probability and frequency of occurrence 
C) percentiles 
D) the Scatter Charts that show correlations,dependencies,and other relationships between pairs of variables plotted against each other

Question 17

Use the data set shown below to answer the following question(s).     For this Newsvendor model,fit a distribution with Crystal Ball and use the Decision Table tool for analysis.Use 5,000 trials for the simulation.
-For the given Newsvendor model,which of the following is defined as the decision variable?

Accepted Answer

A) Demand with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
B) Purchase quantity with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
C) Surplus quantity with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
D) Profit with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
A) Demand with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
B) Purchase quantity with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
C) Surplus quantity with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60 
D) Profit with lower bound 50 and upper bound 60

Question 18

What are the assumptions an analytical approach makes to develop the project management models?

Accepted Answer

In the analytical approach,the probabili

Question 19

Briefly describe the procedure to run a simulation.

Accepted Answer

Prior to running a simulation,you need t

Question 20

In Crystal Ball,the ________ tool provides a priori sensitivity information about the impact of each model variable on a target forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) Tornado Chart 
B) Correlation Matrix 
C) Batch Fit 
D) Bootstrap 
A) Tornado Chart 
B) Correlation Matrix 
C) Batch Fit 
D) Bootstrap

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the fifth year?

In Crystal Ball,uncertain inputs are called forecasts.

Which of the following contains the Trials Tab that allows an individual to choose the number of times that Crystal Ball generates assumptions for the assumption cells in the model and recalculates the entire spreadsheet?

In the data table generated along with the tornado chart,the tool examines values ________.

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball for the cumulative net profit of a particular year,you intend to find the cumulative profit for a given probability value.In this scenario,you should ________.

Explain the procedure associated with Decision Table tool in Crystal Ball.

In Crystal Ball,the Correlation Matrix tool allows an individual to define correlations between groups of assumptions in a model.

In Crystal Ball,a tornado chart differs from a sensitivity chart in that the tornado chart ________.

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball,you intend to find the percentage of risk that the forecast over the specified period of time will not be positive.In this scenario,you should ________.

List the steps used in Crystal Ball to run a Monte Carlo Simulation.

Describe the procedure used to define assumptions in Crystal Ball.

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the third year?

The Chart Bins in Crystal Ball helps in the extraction of ________.

What are the assumptions an analytical approach makes to develop the project management models?

Briefly describe the procedure to run a simulation.

In Crystal Ball,the ________ tool provides a priori sensitivity information about the impact of each model variable on a target forecast.

Data and Business Decisions

Descriptive Statistics and Data Analysis

Probability Concepts and Distributions

Sampling and Estimation

Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Forecasting

Introduction to Statistical Quality Control

Building and Using Decision Models

Decisions, uncertainty, and Risk

Queues and Process Simulation Modeling

Linear Optimization

Integer, nonlinear, and Advanced Optimization Methods

Filters

Exam 10: Decision Models With Uncertainty and Risk

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the fifth year?

In Crystal Ball,uncertain inputs are called forecasts.

Which of the following contains the Trials Tab that allows an individual to choose the number of times that Crystal Ball generates assumptions for the assumption cells in the model and recalculates the entire spreadsheet?

In the data table generated along with the tornado chart,the tool examines values ________.

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball for the cumulative net profit of a particular year,you intend to find the cumulative profit for a given probability value.In this scenario,you should ________.

Explain the procedure associated with Decision Table tool in Crystal Ball.

In Crystal Ball,the Correlation Matrix tool allows an individual to define correlations between groups of assumptions in a model.

In Crystal Ball,a tornado chart differs from a sensitivity chart in that the tornado chart ________.

In a forecast chart provided by Crystal Ball,you intend to find the percentage of risk that the forecast over the specified period of time will not be positive.In this scenario,you should ________.

List the steps used in Crystal Ball to run a Monte Carlo Simulation.

Describe the procedure used to define assumptions in Crystal Ball.

What are the chances that Captain Jack Automobiles will show a cumulative net profit in the third year?

The Chart Bins in Crystal Ball helps in the extraction of ________.

What are the assumptions an analytical approach makes to develop the project management models?

Briefly describe the procedure to run a simulation.

In Crystal Ball,the ________ tool provides a priori sensitivity information about the impact of each model variable on a target forecast.

Data and Business Decisions

Descriptive Statistics and Data Analysis

Probability Concepts and Distributions

Sampling and Estimation

Hypothesis Testing and Statistical Inference

Regression Analysis

Forecasting

Introduction to Statistical Quality Control

Building and Using Decision Models

Decisions, uncertainty, and Risk

Queues and Process Simulation Modeling

Linear Optimization

Integer, nonlinear, and Advanced Optimization Methods

Filters