Exam 14: Introduction to Multiple Regression

TABLE 14-3 An economist is interested to see how consumption for an economy (in $ billions) is influenced by gross domestic product ($ billions) and aggregate price (consumer price index). The Microsoft Excel output of this regression is partially reproduced below. SUMMARY OUTPUT $\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT}$ Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.991 R Square 0.982 Adjusted R Square 0.976 Standard Error 0.299 Observations 10 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 33.4163 16.7082 186.325 0.0001 Residual 7 0.6277 0.0897 Total 9 34.0440 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -0.0861 0.5674 -0.152 0.8837 GDP 0.7654 0.0574 13.340 0.0001 Price -0.0006 0.0028 -0.219 0.8330 -Referring to Table 14-3, to test for the significance of the coefficient on aggregate price index, the p-value is

TABLE 14-3 An economist is interested to see how consumption for an economy (in $ billions) is influenced by gross domestic product ($ billions) and aggregate price (consumer price index). The Microsoft Excel output of this regression is partially reproduced below. $\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT}$ Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.991 R Square 0.982 Adjusted R Square 0.976 Standard Error 0.299 Observations 10 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 33.4163 16.7082 186.325 0.0001 Residual 7 0.6277 0.0897 Total 9 34.0440 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -0.0861 0.5674 -0.152 0.8837 GDP 0.7654 0.0574 13.340 0.0001 Price -0.0006 0.0028 -0.219 0.8330 -Referring to Table 14-3, to test whether gross domestic product has a positive impact on consumption, the p-value is

TABLE 14-10 You worked as an intern at We Always Win Car Insurance Company last summer. You notice that individual car insurance premiums depend very much on the age of the individual, the number of traffic tickets received by the individual, and the population density of the city in which the individual lives. You performed a regression analysis in EXCEL and obtained the following information: Regression Analysis Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.63 R Square 0.40 Adjusted R Square 0.23 Standard Error 50.00 Observations 15.00 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 5994.24 2.40 0.12 Residual 11 27496.82 Total 45479.54 oefficients Standard Error t Stat p-value Lower 99.0\% Upper 99.0 \% Intercept 123.80 48.71 2.54 0.03 -27.47 275.07 AGE -0.82 0.87 -0.95 0.36 -3.51 1.87 TICKETS 21.25 10.66 1.99 0.07 -11.86 54.37 DENSITY -3.14 6.46 -0.49 0.64 -23.19 16.91 -Referring to Table 14-10, to test the significance of the multiple regression model, what are the degrees of freedom?

When an additional explanatory variable is introduced into a multiple regression model, the adjusted r² can never decrease.

TABLE 14-6 One of the most common questions of prospective house buyers pertains to the average cost of heating in dollars (Y). To provide its customers with information on that matter, a large real estate firm used the following 4 variables to predict heating costs: the daily minimum outside temperature in degrees of Fahrenheit (X₁), the amount of insulation in inches (X₂), the number of windows in the house (X₃), and the age of the furnace in years (X₄). Given below are the EXCEL outputs of two regression models. Model 1 Regression Statistics R Square 0.8080 AdjustedR S quare 0.7568 Observations 20 ANOVA df SS MS F Signuficance F Regression 4 169503.4241 42375.86 15.7874 2.96869E-05 Residual 15 40262.3259 2684.155 Total 19 209765.75 Standard Lower Upper Coefficients Error t Stat p -value 90.0\% 90.0\% Intercept 421.4277 77.8614 5.4125 7.2-05 284.9327 557.9227 X 1 (Temperature) -4.5098 0.8129 -5.5476 5.58-05 -5.9349 -3.0847 X 2 (Insulation) -14.9029 5.0508 -2.9505 0.0099 -23.7573 -6.0485 X 3 (Windows) 0.2151 4.8675 0.0442 0.9653 -8.3181 8.7484 X 4 (Furnace Age) 6.3780 4.1026 1.5546 0.1408 -0.8140 13.5702 Model 2 Regression Statistics R Square 0.7768 Adjusted R Square 0.7506 Observations 20 ANOVA d f SS MS SS Significance F Regression 2 162958.2277 81479.11 29.5923 2.9036-06 Residual 17 46807.5222 2753.384 Total 19 209765.75 Standard Lower Upper Coefficients Error t Stat p -value 95\% 95\% Intercept 489.3227 43.982611.1253 3.17-09 396.5273 582.1180 X 1 (Temperature) -5.1103 0.6951-7.3515 1.13-06 -6.5769 -3.6437 X 2 (Insulation) -14.7195 4.8864-3.0123 0.0078 -25.0290 -4.4099 -Referring to Table 14-6, what can we say about Model 1?

TABLE 14-16 The superintendent of a school district wanted to predict the percentage of students passing a sixth-grade proficiency test. She obtained the data on percentage of students passing the proficiency test (% Passing), daily average of the percentage of students attending class (% Attendance), average teacher salary in dollars (Salaries), and instructional spending per pupil in dollars (Spending) of 47 schools in the state. Following is the multiple regression output with Y = % Passing as the dependent variable, X1 = % Attendance, X2 = Salaries and X3 = Spending: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.7930 R Square 0.6288 Adjusted R Square 0.6029 Standard Error 10.4570 Observations 47 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 7965.08 2655.03 24.2802 2.3853-09 Residual 43 4702.02 109.35 Total 46 12667.11 Coeffs Stnd Err t Stat p -value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept -753.4225 101.1149 -7.4511 2.88-09 -957.3401 -549.5050 \% Attend 8.5014 1.0771 7.8929 6.73-10 6.3292 10.6735 Salary 6.85-07 0.0006 0.0011 0.9991 -0.0013 0.0013 Spending 0.0060 0.0046 1.2879 0.2047 -0.0034 0.0153 -Referring to Table 14-16, there is sufficient evidence that instructional spending per pupil has an effect on percentage of students passing the proficiency test while holding constant the effect of all the other independent variables at a 5% level of significance.

TABLE 14-3 An economist is interested to see how consumption for an economy (in $ billions) is influenced by gross domestic product ($ billions) and aggregate price (consumer price index). The Microsoft Excel output of this regression is partially reproduced below. $\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT}$ Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.991 R Square 0.982 Adjusted R Square 0.976 Standard Error 0.299 Observations 10 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 2 33.4163 16.7082 186.325 0.0001 Residual 7 0.6277 0.0897 Total 9 34.0440 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -0.0861 0.5674 -0.152 0.8837 GDP 0.7654 0.0574 13.340 0.0001 Price -0.0006 0.0028 -0.219 0.8330 -Referring to Table 14-3, when the economist used a simple linear regression model with consumption as the dependent variable and GDP as the independent variable, he obtained an r2 value of 0.971. What additional percentage of the total variation of consumption has been explained by including aggregate prices in the multiple regression?

If a categorical independent variable contains 2 categories, then _____dummy variable(s) will be needed to uniquely represent these categories.

TABLE 14-10 You worked as an intern at We Always Win Car Insurance Company last summer. You notice that individual car insurance premiums depend very much on the age of the individual, the number of traffic tickets received by the individual, and the population density of the city in which the individual lives. You performed a regression analysis in EXCEL and obtained the following information: Regression Analysis Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.63 R Square 0.40 Adjusted R Square 0.23 Standard Error 50.00 Observations 15.00 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 5994.24 2.40 0.12 Residual 11 27496.82 Total 45479.54 oefficients Standard Error t Stat p-value Lower 99.0\% Upper 99.0 \% Intercept 123.80 48.71 2.54 0.03 -27.47 275.07 AGE -0.82 0.87 -0.95 0.36 -3.51 1.87 TICKETS 21.25 10.66 1.99 0.07 -11.86 54.37 DENSITY -3.14 6.46 -0.49 0.64 -23.19 16.91 -Referring to Table 14-10, the estimated average change in insurance premiums for every 10 additional tickets received is ______ .

TABLE 14-4 A real estate builder wishes to determine how house size (House) is influenced by family income (Income), family size (Size), and education of the head of household (School). House size is measured in hundreds of square feet, income is measured in thousands of dollars, and education is in years. The builder randomly selected 50 families and ran the multiple regression. Microsoft Excel output is provided below: Regression Stuistics Multiple R 0.865 R Square 0.748 Adjusted R Square 0.726 Standard Error 5.195 Observations 50 ANOVA d f S S M S F Significance F Regression 3605.7736 1201.9245 0.0000 Residual 1214.2264 26.3962 Total 49 4820.0000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -1.6335 5.8078 -0.281 0.7798 Income 0.4485 0.1137 3.9545 0.0003 Size 4.2615 0.8062 5.286 0.0001 School -0.6517 0.4319 -1.509 0.1383 -Referring to Table 14-4, what minimum annual income would an individual with a family size of 4 and 16 years of education need to attain a predicted 10,000 square foot home (House = 100)?

TABLE 14-11 A logistic regression model was estimated in order to predict the probability that a randomly chosen university or college would be a private university using information on average total Scholastic Aptitude Test score (SAT) at the university or college, the room and board expense measured in thousands of dollars (Room/Brd), and whether the TOEFL criterion is at least 550 (Toefl550 = 1 if yes, 0 otherwise.) The dependent variable, Y, is school type (Type = 1 if private and 0 otherwise). The Minitab output is given below: Logistic Regression Table Odds 95: CI Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper Constant -27.118 6.696 -4.05 0.000 SAT 0.015 0.004666 3.17 0.002 1.01 1.01 1.02 Toefl550 -0.390 0.9538 -0.41 0.682 0.68 0.10 4.39 Room/Brd 2.078 0.5076 4.09 0.000 7.99 2.95 21.60 Log-Likelihood = -21.883 Test that all slopes are zero: G = 62.083, DF = 3, P-Value = 0.000 Goodness-of-Fit Tests Method Chi-Square DF P Pearson 143.551 76 0.000 Deviance 43.767 76 0.999 Hosmer-Lemeshow 15.731 8 0.046 -Referring to Table 14-11, what is the estimated odds ratio for a school with an average SAT score of 1100, a TOEFL criterion that is not at least 550, and the room and board expense of 7 thousand dollars?

TABLE 14-17 The marketing manager for a nationally franchised lawn service company would like to study the characteristics that differentiate home owners who do and do not have a lawn service. A random sample of 30 home owners located in a suburban area near a large city was selected; 15 did not have a lawn service (code 0) and 15 had a lawn service (code 1). Additional information available concerning these 30 home owners includes family income (Income, in thousands of dollars), lawn size (Lawn Size, in thousands of square feet), attitude toward outdoor recreational activities (Attitude 0 = unfavorable, 1 = favorable), number of teenagers in the household (Teenager), and age of the head of the household (Age). The Minitab output is given below: Odds 95 \% CI Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper Constant -70.49 47.22 -1.49 0.135 Income 0.2868 0.1523 1.88 0.060 1.33 0.99 1.80 Lawn Size 1.0647 0.7472 1.42 0.154 2.90 0.67 12.54 Attitude -12.744 9.455 -1.35 0.178 0.00 0.00 326.06 Teenager -0.200 1.061 -0.19 0.850 0.82 0.10 6.56 Age 1.0792 0.8783 1.23 0.219 2.94 0.53 16.45 Log-Likelihood = -4.890 Test that all slopes are zero: G = 31.808, DF = 5, P-Value = 0.000 Goodness-of-Fit Tests Method Chi-Square DF P Pearson 9.313 24 0.997 Deviance 9.780 24 0.995 Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.571 8 1.000 -Referring to Table 14-17, there is not enough evidence to conclude that Income makes a significant contribution to the model in the presence of the other independent variables at a 0.05 level of significance.

TABLE 14-8 A financial analyst wanted to examine the relationship between salary (in $1,000) and 4 variables: age (X₁ = Age), experience in the field (X₂ = Exper), number of degrees (X₃ = Degrees), and number of previous jobs in the field (X₄ = Prevjobs). He took a sample of 20 employees and obtained the following Microsoft Excel output: $\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT}$ Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.992 R Square 0.984 Adjusted R Square 0.979 Standard Error 2.26743 Observations 20 ANOVA d f SS M S F Significance F Regression 4 4609.83164 1152.45791 224.160 0.0001 Residual 15 77.11836 5.14122 Total 19 4686.95000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -9.611198 2.77988638 -3.457 0.0035 Age 1.327695 0.11491930 11.553 0.0001 Exper -0.106705 0.14265559 -0.748 0.4660 Degrees 7.311332 0.80324187 9.102 0.0001 Prevjobs -0.504168 0.44771573 -1.126 0.2778 -Referring to Table 14-8, the analyst wants to use an F-test to test H₀ : ?₁ =?₂ =?₃ = ?₄ = 0. The appropriate alternative hypothesis is_____ .

TABLE 14-16 The superintendent of a school district wanted to predict the percentage of students passing a sixth-grade proficiency test. She obtained the data on percentage of students passing the proficiency test (% Passing), daily average of the percentage of students attending class (% Attendance), average teacher salary in dollars (Salaries), and instructional spending per pupil in dollars (Spending) of 47 schools in the state. Following is the multiple regression output with Y = % Passing as the dependent variable, X₁ = % Attendance, X₂ = Salaries and X₃ = Spending: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.7930 R Square 0.6288 Adjusted R Square 0.6029 Standard Error 10.4570 Observations 47 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 7965.08 2655.03 24.2802 2.3853-09 Residual 43 4702.02 109.35 Total 46 12667.11 Coeffs Stnd Err t Stat p -value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept -753.4225 101.1149 -7.4511 2.88-09 -957.3401 -549.5050 \% Attend 8.5014 1.0771 7.8929 6.73-10 6.3292 10.6735 Salary 6.85-07 0.0006 0.0011 0.9991 -0.0013 0.0013 Spending 0.0060 0.0046 1.2879 0.2047 -0.0034 0.0153 -Referring to Table 14-16, there is sufficient evidence that at least one of the explanatory variables is related to the percentage of students passing the proficiency test.

TABLE 14-16 The superintendent of a school district wanted to predict the percentage of students passing a sixth-grade proficiency test. She obtained the data on percentage of students passing the proficiency test (% Passing), daily average of the percentage of students attending class (% Attendance), average teacher salary in dollars (Salaries), and instructional spending per pupil in dollars (Spending) of 47 schools in the state. Following is the multiple regression output with Y = % Passing as the dependent variable, X₁ = % Attendance, X₂ = Salaries and X₃ = Spending: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.7930 R Square 0.6288 Adjusted R Square 0.6029 Standard Error 10.4570 Observations 47 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 7965.08 2655.03 24.2802 2.3853-09 Residual 43 4702.02 109.35 Total 46 12667.11 Coeffs Stnd Err t Stat p -value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept -753.4225 101.1149 -7.4511 2.88-09 -957.3401 -549.5050 \% Attend 8.5014 1.0771 7.8929 6.73-10 6.3292 10.6735 Salary 6.85-07 0.0006 0.0011 0.9991 -0.0013 0.0013 Spending 0.0060 0.0046 1.2879 0.2047 -0.0034 0.0153 -Referring to Table 14-16, the null hypothesis should be rejected at a 5% level of significance when testing whether daily average of the percentage of students attending class has any effect on percentage of students passing the proficiency test.

TABLE 14-4 A real estate builder wishes to determine how house size (House) is influenced by family income (Income), family size (Size), and education of the head of household (School). House size is measured in hundreds of square feet, income is measured in thousands of dollars, and education is in years. The builder randomly selected 50 families and ran the multiple regression. Microsoft Excel output is provided below: Regression Stuistics Multiple R 0.865 R Square 0.748 Adjusted R Square 0.726 Standard Error 5.195 Observations 50 ANOVA d f S S M S F Significance F Regression 3605.7736 1201.9245 0.0000 Residual 1214.2264 26.3962 Total 49 4820.0000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -1.6335 5.8078 -0.281 0.7798 Income 0.4485 0.1137 3.9545 0.0003 Size 4.2615 0.8062 5.286 0.0001 School -0.6517 0.4319 -1.509 0.1383 -Referring to Table 14-4, suppose the builder wants to test whether the coefficient on Income is significantly different from 0. What is the value of the relevant t-statistic?

TABLE 14-14 An econometrician is interested in evaluating the relation of demand for building materials to mortgage rates in Los Angeles and San Francisco. He believes that the appropriate model is Y = 10 + 5X₁ + 8X₂ where X₁ = mortgage rate in % X₂ = 1 if SF, 0 if LA Y = demand in $100 per capita -Referring to Table 14-14, the effect of living in San Francisco rather than Los Angeles is to increase the mean demand by an estimated ________.

TABLE 14-8 A financial analyst wanted to examine the relationship between salary (in $1,000) and 4 variables: age (X₁ = Age), experience in the field (X₂ = Exper), number of degrees (X₃ = Degrees), and number of previous jobs in the field (X₄ = Prevjobs). He took a sample of 20 employees and obtained the following Microsoft Excel output: $\text {SUMMARY OUTPUT}$ Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.992 R Square 0.984 Adjusted R Square 0.979 Standard Error 2.26743 Observations 20 ANOVA d f SS M S F Significance F Regression 4 4609.83164 1152.45791 224.160 0.0001 Residual 15 77.11836 5.14122 Total 19 4686.95000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p -value Intercept -9.611198 2.77988638 -3.457 0.0035 Age 1.327695 0.11491930 11.553 0.0001 Exper -0.106705 0.14265559 -0.748 0.4660 Degrees 7.311332 0.80324187 9.102 0.0001 Prevjobs -0.504168 0.44771573 -1.126 0.2778 -Referring to Table 14-8, the analyst wants to use a t test to test for the significance of the coefficient of X3. The p-value of the test is _____.

TABLE 14-16 The superintendent of a school district wanted to predict the percentage of students passing a sixth-grade proficiency test. She obtained the data on percentage of students passing the proficiency test (% Passing), daily average of the percentage of students attending class (% Attendance), average teacher salary in dollars (Salaries), and instructional spending per pupil in dollars (Spending) of 47 schools in the state. Following is the multiple regression output with Y = % Passing as the dependent variable, X₁ = % Attendance, X₂ = Salaries and X₃ = Spending: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.7930 R Square 0.6288 Adjusted R Square 0.6029 Standard Error 10.4570 Observations 47 ANOVA d f SS MS F Significance F Regression 3 7965.08 2655.03 24.2802 2.3853-09 Residual 43 4702.02 109.35 Total 46 12667.11 Coeffs Stnd Err t Stat p -value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept -753.4225 101.1149 -7.4511 2.88-09 -957.3401 -549.5050 \% Attend 8.5014 1.0771 7.8929 6.73-10 6.3292 10.6735 Salary 6.85-07 0.0006 0.0011 0.9991 -0.0013 0.0013 Spending 0.0060 0.0046 1.2879 0.2047 -0.0034 0.0153 -Referring to Table 14-16, what is the value of the test statistic when testing whether daily average of the percentage of students attending class has any effect on percentage of students passing the proficiency test?

TABLE 14-5 A microeconomist wants to determine how corporate sales are influenced by capital and wage spending by companies. She proceeds to randomly select 26 large corporations and record information in millions of dollars. The Microsoft Excel output below shows results of this multiple regression. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.830 R Square 0.689 Adjusted R Square 0.662 Standard Error 17501.643 Observations 26 ANOVA d f S S M S F Significance F Regression 2 15579777040 7789888520 25.432 0.0001 Residual 23 7045072780 306307512 Total 25 22624849820 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat p-value Intercept 15800.0000 6038.2999 2.617 0.0154 C apital 0.1245 0.2045 0.609 0.5485 W ages 7.0762 1.4729 4.804 0.0001 -Referring to Table 14-5, what fraction of the variability in sales is explained by spending on capital and wages?