Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

The ratios of "actuals to moving averages" (seasonal indexes)for a time series are presented in the following table as percentages: The initial estimate of the seasonal index for Q₁ is ___.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables: The results indicate that ___.

Because seasonal effects can confound trend analysis, it is important to make sure that the data is free of seasonality prior to using regression models to analyze trend.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: If the mean absolute deviation (MAD)is 257, then a = ______.

Often, index numbers are expressed as ___.

Which of the following is not a component of time series data?

Using a three-month moving average (with weights of 5, 3, and 1 for the most current value, next most current value and oldest value, respectively), the forecast value for November in the following time series would be ___.

Fitting a linear trend to 36 monthly data points (January 2017 = 1, February 2017 = 2, March 2017 = 3, etc.)produced the following tables: The projected trend value for January 2020 is ___.

Two popular general categories of smoothing techniques are exponential models and logarithmic models.

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean error (ME)for this forecast is ___.

The following graph of a time-series data suggests a ___ trend.

Using a three-month moving average, the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be ___.

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean absolute deviation (MAD)for this forecast is ___.

The forecast value for August was 12 and the actual value turned out to be 5.Using exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = 0.20, the forecast value for September would be ___.

Autocorrelation in a regression forecasting model can be detected by the F test.

What is the forecast for the Period 7 using a 3-period moving average technique, given the following time-series data for six past periods?

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean squared error (MSE)for this forecast is ___.

Using 2019 as the base year, the 2018 value of the Paasche Price Index is ___.(Quantities are averages for the student body.)

Using a three-month moving average, the forecast value for November in the following time series would be ___.

Typically, the denominator used to calculate an index number is a measurement for the ___ period.