Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

Jim Royo, manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS), wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's).He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable.An analysis of the data yielded the following tables: Using $\alpha$ = 0.05 the critical value of the Durbin-Watson statistic, d_L, is ___.

Using a three-month moving average, the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be ___.

A stationary time-series data has only trend but no cyclical or seasonal effects.

The following graph of time-series data suggests a ___ trend.

Autoregression is a multiple regression technique in which the independent variables are time-lagged versions of the dependent variable.

Weighted aggregate price indexes are also known as ___.

The long-term general direction of data is referred to as trend.

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: On this table, a is some nondisclosed value.The mean square error (MSE)is ______% of a.

The motivation for using an index number is to ___.

Forecast error is the difference between the value of the response variable and those of the explanatory variables.

One of the ways to overcome the autocorrelation problem in a regression forecasting model is to increase the level of significance for the F test

A time series with forecast values is presented in the following table: On this table, a is some nondisclosed value.The mean absolute deviation (MAD) Is ______% of a.

Using 2019 as the base year, the 2018 value of the Laspeyres Price Index is ___.

Mean error (ME)and mean absolute deviation (MAD)will have the same numerical value if all errors are positive.