Exam 5: Discrete Probability Distributions

TABLE 5-8 Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the corresponding profits are presented in the following table. Probability Taste Design A Design B 0.2 more conservative 180 520 0.5 no change 230 310 0.3 more liberal 350 270 -Referring to Table 5-8, if you decide to choose Design A for 90% of the production lines and Design B for the remaining production lines, what is the coefficient of variation of your investment?

TABLE 5-8 Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the corresponding profits are presented in the following table. Probability Taste Design A Design B 0.2 more conservative 180 520 0.5 no change 230 310 0.3 more liberal 350 270 -Referring to Table 5-8, if you decide to choose Design A for half of the production lines and Design B for the other half, what is your expected profit?

The local police department must write, on average, 5 tickets a day to keep department revenues at budgeted levels. Suppose the number of tickets written per day follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 6.5 tickets per day. Interpret the value of the mean.

TABLE 5-9 A major hotel chain keeps a record of the number of mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. In a recent year, the hotel chain had 4.06 mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. Assume that the number of mishandled bags has a Poisson distribution. -Referring to Table 5-9, what is the probability that in the next 1,000 customer, the hotel chain will have no more than three mishandled bags?

TABLE 5-11 Subscribers to Investment Advice White Letters perform security transactions at the rate of five trades per month. Assume that one of the subscribers performs transactions at this rate and the probability of a transaction for any two months is the same and the number of transactions in one month is independent of the number of transactions in another month. -Referring to Table 5-11, what is probability that exactly ten security transactions will be conducted in one month?

If the covariance between two investments is zero, the variance of the sum of the two investments will be equal to the sum of the variances of the investments.

TABLE 5-8 Two different designs on a new line of winter jackets for the coming winter are available for your manufacturing plants. Your profit (in thousands of dollars) will depend on the taste of the consumers when winter arrives. The probability of the three possible different tastes of the consumers and the corresponding profits are presented in the following table. Probability Taste Design A Design B 0.2 more conservative 180 520 0.5 no change 230 310 0.3 more liberal 350 270 -Referring to Table 5-8, if you decide to choose Design A for half of the production lines and Design B for the other half, what is the risk of your investment?

TABLE 5-7 There are two houses with almost identical characteristics available for investment in two different neighborhoods with drastically different demographic composition. The anticipated gain in value when the houses are sold in 10 years has the following probability distribution: Returns Probability Neighborhood A Neighborhood B .25 -\ 22,500 \ 30,500 .40 \ 10,000 \ 25,000 .35 \ 40,500 \ 10,500 -Referring to Table 5-7, what is the standard deviation of the value gain for the house in neighborhood A?

TABLE 5-7 There are two houses with almost identical characteristics available for investment in two different neighborhoods with drastically different demographic composition. The anticipated gain in value when the houses are sold in 10 years has the following probability distribution: Returns Probability Neighborhood A Neighborhood B .25 -\ 22,500 \ 30,500 .40 \ 10,000 \ 25,000 .35 \ 40,500 \ 10,500 -Referring to Table 5-7, what is the total variance of value gain if you invest in both houses?

TABLE 5-7 There are two houses with almost identical characteristics available for investment in two different neighborhoods with drastically different demographic composition. The anticipated gain in value when the houses are sold in 10 years has the following probability distribution: Returns Probability Neighborhood A Neighborhood B .25 -\ 22,500 \ 30,500 .40 \ 10,000 \ 25,000 .35 \ 40,500 \ 10,500 -Referring to Table 5-7, what is the expected value gain for the house in neighborhood A?

The probability that a particular brand of smoke alarm will function properly and sound an alarm in the presence of smoke is 0.8. You have 5 such alarms in your home and they operate independently. Which of the following distributions would you use to determine the probability that all of them will function properly in case of a fire?

TABLE 5-7 There are two houses with almost identical characteristics available for investment in two different neighborhoods with drastically different demographic composition. The anticipated gain in value when the houses are sold in 10 years has the following probability distribution: Returns Probability Neighborhood A Neighborhood B .25 -\ 22,500 \ 30,500 .40 \ 10,000 \ 25,000 .35 \ 40,500 \ 10,500 -Referring to Table 5-7, what is the variance of the gain in value for the house in neighborhood B?

TABLE 5-2 A certain type of new business succeeds 60% of the time. Suppose that 3 such businesses open (where they do not compete with each other, so it is reasonable to believe that their relative successes would be independent). -Referring to Table 5-2, the probability that all 3 businesses succeed is ________.

TABLE 5-5 From an inventory of 48 new cars being shipped to local dealerships, corporate reports indicate that 12 have defective radios installed. -Referring to Table 5-5, what is the probability out of the 8 new cars it just received that, when each is tested, no more than half of the cars have defective radios?

A stock analyst was provided with a list of 25 stocks. He was expected to pick 3 stocks from the list whose prices are expected to rise by more than 20% after 30 days. In reality, the prices of only 5 stocks would rise by more than 20% after 30 days. If he randomly selected 3 stocks from the list, he would use what type of probability distribution to compute the probability that all of the chosen stocks would appreciate more than 20% after 30 days?

TABLE 5-5 From an inventory of 48 new cars being shipped to local dealerships, corporate reports indicate that 12 have defective radios installed. -Referring to Table 5-5, what is the probability out of the 8 new cars it just received that, when each is tested, at most three of the cars have nondefective radios?

TABLE 5-9 A major hotel chain keeps a record of the number of mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. In a recent year, the hotel chain had 4.06 mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. Assume that the number of mishandled bags has a Poisson distribution. -Referring to Table 5-9, what is the probability that in the next 1,000 customers, the hotel chain will have no more than two or at least eight mishandled bags?

The number of 911 calls in Butte, Montana, has a Poisson distribution with a mean of 10 calls a day. The probability of seven or eight 911 calls in a day is ________.

TABLE 5-9 A major hotel chain keeps a record of the number of mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. In a recent year, the hotel chain had 4.06 mishandled bags per 1,000 customers. Assume that the number of mishandled bags has a Poisson distribution. -Referring to Table 5-9, what is the probability that in the next 1,000 customers, the hotel chain will have at least two mishandled bags?

The Poisson distribution can be used to model a continuous random variable.