Exam 8: Predictive Modeling and Analysis

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential new drug.The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000.The current market size is estimated to be around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year.The market share Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25 percent each year for the next 4 years.A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150.A discount rate of 8 percent is assumed. $\begin{array}{l}\text { Dresden Pharmaceuticals }\\\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Data } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Market Size } & 3,000,000 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue (\$) } & 420 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost (\$) } & 150 \\\hline \text { Discount Rate ( per cent) } & 8 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Project Costs } & \\\hline \text { R\&D (\$) } & 875,000,000 \\\hline \text { Clinical Trials (\$) } & 145,000,000 \\\hline & \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ -Which of the following is the root cause for the newsvendor problem?

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Sheila joined Simsin Tradings at the age of 36 with a starting salary of $75,000.She expects a salary increase of 5 percent every year.Her retirement plan requires her to pay 9 percent of her salary, while the company matches it at 32 percent.She expects an annual return of 7 percent on her retirement portfolio.Using a predictive model for Sheila's first five years, calculate the following, assuming that the salary increases at the same rate every year, and the return of interest does not change. Retirement Plan Model for Sheila Data Retirement Contribution ( percent of salary) Employer Match 9 percent Annual Salary Increase 32 percent Annual Return on Investment 5 percent 7 percent -________ are mathematical functions used in predictive analytical models which define phenomena that increase at a specific rate, and is represented by the formula y = axᵇ

Discuss how overbooking decisions are made by service businesses.

Two-way data tables can evaluate only one output variable.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Below is the profit model spreadsheet for the Lazarus Shoe Company producing their latest model of shoes for the month of January. $\begin{array} { | l | l | } \begin{array} { l } \text { Profit Model for Lazarus } \\\text { Shoe Company for } \\\text { January }\end{array} & ( \text { All cost in \$) } \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Unit Price } & 47 \\\hline \text { Unit Cost } & 22 \\\hline \text { Fixed Cost for Production } 350,000 \\\hline \text { Demand } & 40,000 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Model } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Unit Price } & 47 \\\hline \text { Quantity Sold } & 38,000 \\\hline \text { Revenue } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Unit Cost } & 22 \\\hline \text { Quantity Produced } & 38,000 \\\hline \text { Variable Cost } & \\\hline \text { Fixed Cost } & 300,000 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Profit } & \\\hline\end{array}$ -Calculate the revenue for units sold.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential new drug.The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000.The current market size is estimated to be around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year.The market share Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25 percent each year for the next 4 years.A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150.A discount rate of 8 percent is assumed. $\begin{array}{l}\text { Dresden Pharmaceuticals }\\\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Data } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Market Size } & 3,000,000 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue (\$) } & 420 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost (\$) } & 150 \\\hline \text { Discount Rate ( per cent) } & 8 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Project Costs } & \\\hline \text { R\&D (\$) } & 875,000,000 \\\hline \text { Clinical Trials (\$) } & 145,000,000 \\\hline & \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ -Calculate the projected profit for the third year.

Which of the following is necessary to calculate the variable cost of production for the company to develop a profit model?

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential new drug.The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000.The current market size is estimated to be around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year.The market share Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25 percent each year for the next 4 years.A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150.A discount rate of 8 percent is assumed. $\begin{array}{l}\text { Dresden Pharmaceuticals }\\\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Data } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Market Size } & 3,000,000 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue (\$) } & 420 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost (\$) } & 150 \\\hline \text { Discount Rate ( per cent) } & 8 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Project Costs } & \\\hline \text { R\&D (\$) } & 875,000,000 \\\hline \text { Clinical Trials (\$) } & 145,000,000 \\\hline & \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ -Which of the following conditions is a solution to the newsvendor problem, where Q is the quantity to be purchased, and D is demand?

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Sheila joined Simsin Tradings at the age of 36 with a starting salary of $75,000.She expects a salary increase of 5 percent every year.Her retirement plan requires her to pay 9 percent of her salary, while the company matches it at 32 percent.She expects an annual return of 7 percent on her retirement portfolio.Using a predictive model for Sheila's first five years, calculate the following, assuming that the salary increases at the same rate every year, and the return of interest does not change. Retirement Plan Model for Sheila Data Retirement Contribution ( percent of salary) Employer Match 9 percent Annual Salary Increase 32 percent Annual Return on Investment 5 percent 7 percent -In Excel's Trendline tool, the value of the________ gives the measure of fit of the line to the data.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Sheila joined Simsin Tradings at the age of 36 with a starting salary of $75,000.She expects a salary increase of 5 percent every year.Her retirement plan requires her to pay 9 percent of her salary, while the company matches it at 32 percent.She expects an annual return of 7 percent on her retirement portfolio.Using a predictive model for Sheila's first five years, calculate the following, assuming that the salary increases at the same rate every year, and the return of interest does not change. Retirement Plan Model for Sheila Data Retirement Contribution ( percent of salary) Employer Match 9 percent Annual Salary Increase 32 percent Annual Return on Investment 5 percent 7 percent -Which of the following is true of linear functions used in predictive analytical models?

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential new drug.The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000.The current market size is estimated to be around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year.The market share Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25 percent each year for the next 4 years.A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150.A discount rate of 8 percent is assumed. $\begin{array}{l}\text { Dresden Pharmaceuticals }\\\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Data } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Market Size } & 3,000,000 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue (\$) } & 420 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost (\$) } & 150 \\\hline \text { Discount Rate ( per cent) } & 8 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Project Costs } & \\\hline \text { R\&D (\$) } & 875,000,000 \\\hline \text { Clinical Trials (\$) } & 145,000,000 \\\hline & \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ -Calculate the annual revenue for the fourth year.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Below is a room overbooking model spreadsheet for the Metza, a hotel chain.The hotel has 425 rooms priced at $180 per day each, and is usually fully booked.Reservations can be cancelled any time before 5:00 p.m.with no penalty.The hotel estimates an average overbooking cost of $150.Customer demand is set at 400 with an average cancellation of 20. Aotel Overbooking Model for the Metza group of hotels 1 2 3 Data 4 5 Rooms Available 425 6 Price per room \ 180 7 Overbooking Cost \ 150 8 9 10 11 Reservation Limit 425 12 Customer Demand 400 13 Reservation Made 14 Cancellations 20 15 Customer Arrivals 16 Overbooked Customers -Calculate the customer arrivals at the Metza.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Sheila joined Simsin Tradings at the age of 36 with a starting salary of $75,000.She expects a salary increase of 5 percent every year.Her retirement plan requires her to pay 9 percent of her salary, while the company matches it at 32 percent.She expects an annual return of 7 percent on her retirement portfolio.Using a predictive model for Sheila's first five years, calculate the following, assuming that the salary increases at the same rate every year, and the return of interest does not change. Retirement Plan Model for Sheila Data Retirement Contribution ( percent of salary) Employer Match 9 percent Annual Salary Increase 32 percent Annual Return on Investment 5 percent 7 percent -What will be the amount of employee contribution to retirement plan when Sheila is aged 38?

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). In the spreadsheet below, there is data on the price, demand, quantity produced, and cost for an item.There are also different "what if" values that can help a manager to calculate costs and revenue with variability in demand. $\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | } \hline 1 & \text { A } & \text { B } & \text { C } \\\hline \hline & \text { Profit Model } & & \\\hline 3 & & & \\\hline 3 & \text { Data } & & \begin{array} { l } \text { What-If Demand } \\\text { Values }\end{array} \\\hline 4 & & & 20,000 \\\hline 5 & \text { Unit Price (\$) } & 50 & 40,000 \\\hline 6 & \text { Unit Cost (\$) } & 25 & 55,000 \\\hline 7 & \text { Fixed Cost (\$) } & 550,000 & 60,000 \\\hline 8 & \text { Demand } & 60,000 & 65,000 \\\hline 9 & \text { Quantity Produced } & 55,000 & \\\hline 10 & & & \\\hline\end{array}$ -From the "what if" values, calculate the net profit when the demand is 65,000.

How can managers judge the validity of a model?

Troista Mobile Accessories sells mobile apps on their Web site.If a customer spends on average, $12 per visit and visits the Web site 20 times each year, what is the average nondiscounted gross profit during a customer's lifetime? Given that Troista makes a margin of 60 percent on the average bill, with 25 percent of customers not returning each year.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Below is a room overbooking model spreadsheet for the Metza, a hotel chain.The hotel has 425 rooms priced at $180 per day each, and is usually fully booked.Reservations can be cancelled any time before 5:00 p.m.with no penalty.The hotel estimates an average overbooking cost of $150.Customer demand is set at 400 with an average cancellation of 20. Aotel Overbooking Model for the Metza group of hotels 1 2 3 Data 4 5 Rooms Available 425 6 Price per room \ 180 7 Overbooking Cost \ 150 8 9 10 11 Reservation Limit 425 12 Customer Demand 400 13 Reservation Made 14 Cancellations 20 15 Customer Arrivals 16 Overbooked Customers -Calculate the net revenue.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Dresden Pharmaceuticals has decided to go ahead and start clinical trials on a potential new drug.The total R&D costs are estimated to reach around $875,000,000 with clinical trials mounting to $145,000,000.The current market size is estimated to be around 3,000,000 and is expected to grow at 4 percent every year.The market share Dresden hopes to capture in the first year is 7 percent, and is projected to grow by 25 percent each year for the next 4 years.A monthly prescription is anticipated to generate revenue of $420 while incurring variable costs of $150.A discount rate of 8 percent is assumed. $\begin{array}{l}\text { Dresden Pharmaceuticals }\\\begin{array} { | l | l | } \hline \text { Data } & \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Market Size } & 3,000,000 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) revenue (\$) } & 420 \\\hline \text { Unit (monthly Rx) cost (\$) } & 150 \\\hline \text { Discount Rate ( per cent) } & 8 \\\hline & \\\hline \text { Project Costs } & \\\hline \text { R\&D (\$) } & 875,000,000 \\\hline \text { Clinical Trials (\$) } & 145,000,000 \\\hline & \\\hline\end{array}\end{array}$ -Calculate the market share percentage in the third year.

In Excel's Risk Solver Platform, a parameter is a set of outputs in a model.

Use the table below to answer the following question(s). Sheila joined Simsin Tradings at the age of 36 with a starting salary of $75,000.She expects a salary increase of 5 percent every year.Her retirement plan requires her to pay 9 percent of her salary, while the company matches it at 32 percent.She expects an annual return of 7 percent on her retirement portfolio.Using a predictive model for Sheila's first five years, calculate the following, assuming that the salary increases at the same rate every year, and the return of interest does not change. Retirement Plan Model for Sheila Data Retirement Contribution ( percent of salary) Employer Match 9 percent Annual Salary Increase 32 percent Annual Return on Investment 5 percent 7 percent -In ________ functions, represented by y = abˣ, y rises or falls at constantly increasing rates.