Exam 10: Forecasting Techniques
Exam 1: Introduction to Business Analytics50 Questions
Exam 2: Analytics on Spreadsheets52 Questions
Exam 3: Visualizing and Exploring Data50 Questions
Exam 4: Descriptive Statistical Measures79 Questions
Exam 5: Probability Distributions and Data Modeling50 Questions
Exam 6: Sampling and Estimation59 Questions
Exam 7: Statistical Inference50 Questions
Exam 8: Predictive Modeling and Analysis64 Questions
Exam 9: Regression Analysis50 Questions
Exam 10: Forecasting Techniques55 Questions
Exam 11: Simulation and Risk Analysis50 Questions
Exam 12: Introduction to Data Mining53 Questions
Exam 13: Linear Optimization50 Questions
Exam 14: Applications of Linear Optimization62 Questions
Exam 15: Integer Optimization50 Questions
Exam 16: Nonlinear and Non-Smooth Optimization66 Questions
Exam 17: Optimization Models with Uncertainty50 Questions
Exam 18: Decision Analysis50 Questions
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If the actual value of a time series at time t and the forecast value for time t is denoted by At and Ft respectively, then the formula for the mean absolute deviation over a range of forecasted values is ________.
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(Multiple Choice)
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Correct Answer:
A
Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The value of k is set at 3.(Hint: Optimize α value.)
Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85
-What is the formula used to calculate the value of bt in the linear trend equation Ft₊k = at + btk while using double exponential smoothing?
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(Multiple Choice)
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Correct Answer:
D
Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner)
Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200
-Which of the following equations is the trend line equation for the given data?
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(Multiple Choice)
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Correct Answer:
C
Use the data shown below to answer the following question(s).
The table below is the data set of the Shiller Real Home Price Index for the years 1946-1956.
Year Real Home Price Index 1946 106.5058955 1947 109.3296707 1948 101.2225795 1949 100.0466076 1950 105.8948393 1951 103.8986687 1952 103.9743275 1953 114.7133093 1954 114.199126 1955 115.4621261 1956 115.3166155
-Setting k = 3, determine the value of root mean square of errors.
(Essay)
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Explain the different types of Holt-Winters models used in forecasting.
(Essay)
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The data for the number of hand-held gaming devices sold for the past 5 weeks are 15 units, 20 units, 25 units, 30 units, and 17 units respectively.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects; thus, a moving average model would be appropriate.Setting k = 3 the three-period moving average forecast for week 6 is ________.
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below provides the sales data for JD Inc.for the year 1998.Given: α = 0.2, β = 0.15, and γ = 0.05 (Hint: Classify the data into quarters for the following question(s).)
Umbrella Sales of JD Inc. Year Month Units 1 Jan 3980 1 Feb 4000 1 Mar 4740 1 April 4720 1 May 4920 1 Jun 5140 1 July 4640 1 Aug 4520 1 Sep 4480 1 Oct 4690 1 Nov 4210 1 Dec 4418
-What will be the predicted sales for umbrellas for the month of February of the next quarter?
(Multiple Choice)
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The actual value of the time series at time t and the forecast value for time t is denoted by At and Ft respectively.What is the formula used for calculating the mean absolute percentage error over a range of forecasted values?
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and β = 0.15 (Hint: Use XLMiner)
Year Units sold in thousands 1981 888 1982 900 1983 1000 1984 1200 1985 1100 1986 1300 1987 1250 1988 1150 1989 1100 1990 1200
-Using the double exponential smoothing, calculate the value of the mean absolute deviation for the given data.
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below provides the sales data for JD Inc.for the year 1998.Given: α = 0.2, β = 0.15, and γ = 0.05 (Hint: Classify the data into quarters for the following question(s).)
Umbrella Sales of JD Inc. Year Month Units 1 Jan 3980 1 Feb 4000 1 Mar 4740 1 April 4720 1 May 4920 1 Jun 5140 1 July 4640 1 Aug 4520 1 Sep 4480 1 Oct 4690 1 Nov 4210 1 Dec 4418
-Using an appropriate Holt-Winters trend model, calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error for the given data.
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The value of k is set at 3.(Hint: Optimize α value.)
Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85
-What is the difference between the forecasted and the actual value for the 3ʳᵈ week?
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table below provides the sales data for JD Inc.for the year 1998.Given: α = 0.2, β = 0.15, and γ = 0.05 (Hint: Classify the data into quarters for the following question(s).)
Umbrella Sales of JD Inc. Year Month Units 1 Jan 3980 1 Feb 4000 1 Mar 4740 1 April 4720 1 May 4920 1 Jun 5140 1 July 4640 1 Aug 4520 1 Sep 4480 1 Oct 4690 1 Nov 4210 1 Dec 4418
-Calculate the value of the mean square error using an appropriate Holt-Winters trend model for the given data.
(Multiple Choice)
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If a time series has seasonality but no trend, the most appropriate model used for forecasting is the Holt-Winters multiplicative model.
(True/False)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and γ = 0.05.(Hint: Use XLMiner).
Year Units sold in thousands 1 750 2 823 3 1034 4 1945 5 1556 6 1300 7 1346 8 1150 9 967 10 1200
-If the given time series has a trend and seasonality, the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series is the ________ model.
(Multiple Choice)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and γ = 0.05.(Hint: Use XLMiner).
Year Units sold in thousands 1 750 2 823 3 1034 4 1945 5 1556 6 1300 7 1346 8 1150 9 967 10 1200
-Calculate the value of the mean absolute percentage error using the Holt-Winters no-trend model for the given data.
(Multiple Choice)
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A cyclical effect is one that repeats at fixed intervals of time, typically a year, month, week, or day.
(True/False)
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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks.The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects.The value of k is set at 3.(Hint: Optimize α value.)
Week Units sold 1 88 2 44 3 54 4 65 5 72 6 85
-Which of the following is the value of the root mean square error for the given data?
(Multiple Choice)
4.8/5
(42)
Use the data given below to answer the following question(s).
The worldwide sales of cars from 1981-1990 are shown in the table below.Given: α = 0.2 and γ = 0.05.(Hint: Use XLMiner).
Year Units sold in thousands 1 750 2 823 3 1034 4 1945 5 1556 6 1300 7 1346 8 1150 9 967 10 1200
-If the given time series has no trend and no seasonality, the most appropriate forecasting model to determine the forecast of the time series is the ________ model.
(Multiple Choice)
4.9/5
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