Exam 14: Simulation Cdrom Modules

Using a standard approach to simulating random variables which follow Uniform Distribution UN [20,30] , what would be the simulated value if 30 is the two-digit random number picked from the random number table?

Simulating a discrete distribution with two events- $\mathrm{H}$ with probability 0.35 and $\mathrm{T}$ with probability 0.65 - using two-digit random numbers is usually done by associating a random number from 00 to 34 with $\mathrm{H}$ and 35 to 99 with $\mathrm{T}$ . A new analyst wants to associate 00 to 09 and 75 to 99 with $\mathrm{H}$ and the remaining random numbers with $\mathrm{T}$ . Which of the following is true?

In theory, the numbers on a random number table follow these properties: all numbers are equally likely, and if you take the numbers in a row only (left to right or right to left, but not top to bottom or across), no pattern appears in the sequence of numbers.

For simple waiting line systems, simulation makes it easier to find the operating characteristics than waiting line theory.

Time between failures of a critical machine follow normal distribution, with a mean of 30 hours and standard deviation of 5 hours. If the random normal deviate chosen from a table of normally distributed random numbers is 2.5 , the number of simulated hours before the next failure will be:

Aspects of validation include

Probabilistic simulation is akin to sampling, each run representing one sample.

In simulation several alternatives are evaluated, and one chooses the best among the alternatives evaluated.

In a normally distributed random number table, about half the numbers will be negative.

Daily demand for a product is described in the table below. Profit per unit sold is $\$ 10.00$ . Unmet demand costs are $\$ 5.00$ in goodwill. The demand is not carried forward. Excess stock is liquidated on a daily basis at a cost of $\$ 3.00$ per unit. That is, excess stock is not carried forward in stock. Orders have to be placed using a fixed policy of ordering $X$ number of units each day. Lead-time is 0 , but only one order can be placed each day. What should be the value of $\mathrm{X}$ in order to maximize profit? Try two "good" ordering policies (i.e. two order quantities), simulate the profit corresponding to the two policies for 10 days, and choose the best quantity.

Most practical applications of simulation can be solved using a paper and pencil approach.

The purpose of validation is to make sure that the computer program does what was intended to be done.

All deterministic simulations incorporate mechanisms for mimicking a random behavior of one or more variables.

Using excel, once we create a set of random numbers with the formula Rand(), then the numbers will remain the same even if we refresh the sheet.

The second step in simulation modeling is to

The first step in simulation modeling is to

Using the equation $T=-\frac{1}{\lambda} \ln (\cdot R N)$ large random numbers produce small time values.

There is a backyard lake in your house with a very odd-shaped boundary. You drew a computer map of it, enclosed it in a rectangle, and used simulation to estimate its surface area. You must have used

If you are interested in predicting the time of day a road block may occur, you would use

In a normally distributed random number table, about $33 \%$ of the numbers will be between -1 and +1 .