Exam 16: Simulation

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To use Excel to generate a normally distributed random variable,you must know the mean and standard deviation of the distribution and have a random number between 0 and 1.

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True

Values for the probabilistic inputs to a simulation

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C

A value for probabilistic input from a discrete probability distribution

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B

Three airlines compete on the route between New York and Los Angeles.Stanton Marketing has performed an analysis of first class business travelers to determine their airline choice.Stanton has modeled this choice as a Markov process and has determined the following transition probabilities. Three airlines compete on the route between New York and Los Angeles.Stanton Marketing has performed an analysis of first class business travelers to determine their airline choice.Stanton has modeled this choice as a Markov process and has determined the following transition probabilities.     a.Show the random number assignments that can be used to simulate the first class business traveler's next airline when her last airline is A,B,and C. b.Assume the traveler used airline C last.Simulate which airline the traveler will be using over her next 25 flights.What percent of her flights are on each of the three airlines? Use the following random numbers,going from left to right,top to bottom.     SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS a.Show the random number assignments that can be used to simulate the first class business traveler's next airline when her last airline is A,B,and C. b.Assume the traveler used airline C last.Simulate which airline the traveler will be using over her next 25 flights.What percent of her flights are on each of the three airlines? Use the following random numbers,going from left to right,top to bottom. Three airlines compete on the route between New York and Los Angeles.Stanton Marketing has performed an analysis of first class business travelers to determine their airline choice.Stanton has modeled this choice as a Markov process and has determined the following transition probabilities.     a.Show the random number assignments that can be used to simulate the first class business traveler's next airline when her last airline is A,B,and C. b.Assume the traveler used airline C last.Simulate which airline the traveler will be using over her next 25 flights.What percent of her flights are on each of the three airlines? Use the following random numbers,going from left to right,top to bottom.     SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS

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Each simulation run provides only a sample of how the real system will operate.

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Validation determines that the computer procedure is operating as it is intended to operate.

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Common features of simulations--generating values from probability distributions,maintaining records,recording data and summarizing results--led to the development of

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When events occur at discrete points in time

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Simulation

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The number of units expected to be sold is uniformly distributed between 300 and 500.If r is a random number between 0 and 1,then the proper expression for sales is

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Which of the following statements is INCORRECT regarding the disadvantages of simulation?

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Trials of a simulation show what would happen when values of the probabilistic input change.

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The process of determining that the computer procedure that performs the simulation calculations is logically correct is called

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Simulation is a trial-and-error approach to problem solving.

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A simulation model uses the mathematical expressions and logical relationships of the

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Seventy-five percent of calls arriving at a help line can be handled by the person who answers the phone,but the remaining 25% of them will need to be referred to someone else.Assume that every call requires one minute of attention by the person who answers the phone (either to answer the question or to figure out how the referral should be handled).Calls that are referred need an additional amount of time,as given in the table below. Seventy-five percent of calls arriving at a help line can be handled by the person who answers the phone,but the remaining 25% of them will need to be referred to someone else.Assume that every call requires one minute of attention by the person who answers the phone (either to answer the question or to figure out how the referral should be handled).Calls that are referred need an additional amount of time,as given in the table below.    Callers are served on a first come,first served basis,and are put on hold until the line is free.Use the random numbers to simulate what happens to 10 callers.(Use the random numbers in order - from left to right,first row first - as you need them. )What percentage of your callers needs to be referred? Of those who had to be referred,what is the average referral time?   Callers are served on a first come,first served basis,and are put on hold until the line is free.Use the random numbers to simulate what happens to 10 callers.(Use the random numbers in order - from left to right,first row first - as you need them. )What percentage of your callers needs to be referred? Of those who had to be referred,what is the average referral time? Seventy-five percent of calls arriving at a help line can be handled by the person who answers the phone,but the remaining 25% of them will need to be referred to someone else.Assume that every call requires one minute of attention by the person who answers the phone (either to answer the question or to figure out how the referral should be handled).Calls that are referred need an additional amount of time,as given in the table below.    Callers are served on a first come,first served basis,and are put on hold until the line is free.Use the random numbers to simulate what happens to 10 callers.(Use the random numbers in order - from left to right,first row first - as you need them. )What percentage of your callers needs to be referred? Of those who had to be referred,what is the average referral time?

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If customer 2 has a service time of 1.6,and if customer 3 has an interarrival time of 1.1 and a service time of 2.3,when will customer 3's service be completed?

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Susan Winslow has two alternative routes to travel from her home in Olport to her office in Lewisburg.She can travel on Freeway 5 to Freeway 57 or on Freeway 55 to Freeway 91.The time distributions are as follows: Susan Winslow has two alternative routes to travel from her home in Olport to her office in Lewisburg.She can travel on Freeway 5 to Freeway 57 or on Freeway 55 to Freeway 91.The time distributions are as follows:    Do a five-day simulation of each of the two combinations of routes using the random numbers below.Based on this simulation,which routes should Susan take if her objective is to minimize her total travel time?   Do a five-day simulation of each of the two combinations of routes using the random numbers below.Based on this simulation,which routes should Susan take if her objective is to minimize her total travel time? Susan Winslow has two alternative routes to travel from her home in Olport to her office in Lewisburg.She can travel on Freeway 5 to Freeway 57 or on Freeway 55 to Freeway 91.The time distributions are as follows:    Do a five-day simulation of each of the two combinations of routes using the random numbers below.Based on this simulation,which routes should Susan take if her objective is to minimize her total travel time?

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For the past 50 days,daily sales of laundry detergent in a large grocery store have been recorded (to the nearest 10). For the past 50 days,daily sales of laundry detergent in a large grocery store have been recorded (to the nearest 10).     a.Determine the relative frequency for each number of units sold. b.Suppose that the following random numbers were obtained using Excel:     Use these random numbers to simulate 10 days of sales. a.Determine the relative frequency for each number of units sold. b.Suppose that the following random numbers were obtained using Excel: For the past 50 days,daily sales of laundry detergent in a large grocery store have been recorded (to the nearest 10).     a.Determine the relative frequency for each number of units sold. b.Suppose that the following random numbers were obtained using Excel:     Use these random numbers to simulate 10 days of sales. Use these random numbers to simulate 10 days of sales.

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Arrivals to a truck repair facility have an interarrival time that is uniformly distributed between 20 and 50 minutes.Service times are normally distributed with mean 30 minutes and standard deviation 10 minutes.Develop a spreadsheet model to simulate the arrival of 100 trucks.Collect information on the time the repair facility is idle and on the average waiting time for trucks.

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