Exam 15: Time-Series Forecasting and Index Numbers

The ratios of "actuals to moving averages" (seasonal indexes)for a time series are presented in the following table as percentages. The final (completely adjusted)estimate of the seasonal index for Q1 is __________.

Analysis of data for an autoregressive forecasting model produced the following tables. The results indicate that __________.

A time series with forecast values and error terms is presented in the following table.The mean squared error (MSE)for this forecast is ___________.

The high and low values of the "ratios of actuals to moving average" are ignored when finalizing the seasonal index for a period (month or quarter)in time series decomposition.The rationale for this is to ________.

The long-term general direction of data is referred to as series.

Unweighted price indexes compare across the entire time period for which there is data.

In an autoregressive forecasting model,the independent variable(s)is (are)______.

A stationary time-series data has only trend but no cyclical or seasonal effects.

When forecasting with exponential smoothing,data from previous periods is _________.

When a trucking firm uses the number of shipments for January of the previous year as the forecast for January next year,it is using a naïve forecasting model.

Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for October made at the end of September in the following time series would be ____________.

The following graph of time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.

Jim Royo,manager of Billings Building Supply (BBS),wants to develop a model to forecast BBS's monthly sales (in $1,000's).He selects the dollar value of residential building permits (in $10,000)as the predictor variable.An analysis of the data yielded the following tables. Jim's calculated value for the Durbin-Watson statistic is 1.14.Using $\alpha$ = 0.05,the appropriate decision is: _________.

One of the ways to overcome the autocorrelation problem in a regression forecasting model is to increase the level of significance for the F test

Two popular general categories of smoothing techniques are averaging models and exponential models.

Using a three-month moving average,the forecast value for November in the following time series is ____________.

An exponential smoothing technique in which the smoothing constant alpha is equal to one is equivalent to a regression forecasting model.

In exponential smoothing models,the value of the smoothing constant may be any number between ___________.

The following graph of a time-series data suggests a _______________ trend.

Using 2011 as the base year,the 2010 value of the Paasche' Price Index is ______.