Exam 21: Operational Decison-Making Tools: Transportation and Transshipment Models

(Use the following information for the next five problems.) The owner of Koffi, the sole coffee house located in a resort area, wants to develop a forecast based on the relationship between tourism and coffee drinks sold. He has generated the following data over the past 12 months: The data from using Data Analysis on Excel is as follows: -What is the forecasted number of coffee drinks sold if the number of tourists is 25 (thousand)? a. 128 b. 138 c. 148 d. 158 Ans. C

Explain the difference between qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods.

A gradual, long-term up or down movement of demand over time is referred to as a trend.

Forecasts based on mathematical formulas are referred to as qualitative forecasts.

The _________________ forecast method consists of an exponential smoothing forecast with a trend adjustment factor added to it.

Because of heightened competition resulting from globalization most companies find little strategic value in long-range forecasts.

Linear regression relates two variables using a linear model.

Given the demand and forecast values below, the naïve forecast for September is

________________ demand is a key to providing good-quality service.

The average, absolute difference between the forecast and demand is a popular measure of forecast error.

The mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD) measures the absolute error as a percentage of

A large positive cumulative error indicates that the forecast is probably

Forecasting customer demand is often a key to providing good quality service.

A forecasting model has produced the following forecasts: The mean absolute percent deviation (MAPD) for the end of May is

Forecast methods based on judgment, opinion, past experiences, or best guesses are known as ___________ methods.

Many companies are shifting from long-term to short-term forecasts for strategic planning.

The Delphi method generates forecasts based on informed judgments and opinions from knowledgeable individuals.

One way to deal with the bullwhip effect is to develop and share the forecasts with other supply chain members.

Regression is used for forecasting when there is a relationship between the dependent variable, demand, and one or more independent (explanatory) variables.

The trend toward continuous replenishment in supply chain design has shifted the need for accurate forecasts from long-term to short-term.