Exam 14: Simulation Modeling

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Monte Carlo simulation was developed as a quantitative technique by the great mathematician John von Neumann during World War I.

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The advantage of simulation over queuing or waiting line models is that simulation allows us to relax our assumptions regarding arrival and service distributions.

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Table 14-2 A pharmacy is considering hiring another pharmacist to better serve customers. To help analyze this situation, records are kept to determine how many customers will arrive in any 10-minute interval. Based on 100 ten-minute intervals, the following probability distribution has been developed and random numbers assigned to each event. Table 14-2 A pharmacy is considering hiring another pharmacist to better serve customers. To help analyze this situation, records are kept to determine how many customers will arrive in any 10-minute interval. Based on 100 ten-minute intervals, the following probability distribution has been developed and random numbers assigned to each event.   -According to Table 14-2, the number of arrivals in any 10-minute period is between 6 and 10, inclusive. Suppose the next three random numbers were 20, 50, and 79, and these were used to simulate arrivals in the next three 10-minute intervals. How many customers would have arrived during this 30-minute time period? -According to Table 14-2, the number of arrivals in any 10-minute period is between 6 and 10, inclusive. Suppose the next three random numbers were 20, 50, and 79, and these were used to simulate arrivals in the next three 10-minute intervals. How many customers would have arrived during this 30-minute time period?

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A flow diagram is helpful in the logical coding procedures for programming a simulation process.

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A certain grocery store has created the following tables of intervals of random numbers with regard to the number of people who arrive at its three checkout stands ready to check out, and the time it takes to check out the individuals. Simulate the utilization rate of the three checkout stands over four minutes using the following random numbers for arrivals: 07, 60, 49, and 95. Use the following random numbers for service: 77, 76, 51, and 16. Describe the results at the end of the four-minute period. A certain grocery store has created the following tables of intervals of random numbers with regard to the number of people who arrive at its three checkout stands ready to check out, and the time it takes to check out the individuals. Simulate the utilization rate of the three checkout stands over four minutes using the following random numbers for arrivals: 07, 60, 49, and 95. Use the following random numbers for service: 77, 76, 51, and 16. Describe the results at the end of the four-minute period.

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The Monte Carlo simulation is used with variables that are probabilistic.

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The process of comparing a model to the real system that it represents to make sure it is accurate is called

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The wider the variation among results produced by using different sets of random numbers, the longer we need to run the simulation to obtain reliable results.

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Validation relates to building the right model.

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When using a random number generator, one should never start in the middle of the table of random numbers.

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While it is powerful, simulation is not considered to be a flexible quantitative analysis tool.

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Which of the following scenarios would require simulation for a queuing model?

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Table 14-1 A new young mother has opened a cloth diaper service. She is interested in simulating the number of diapers required for a one-year- old. She hopes to use this data to show the cost effectiveness of cloth diapers. The table below shows the number of diapers demanded daily and the probabilities associated with each level of demand. Table 14-1 A new young mother has opened a cloth diaper service. She is interested in simulating the number of diapers required for a one-year- old. She hopes to use this data to show the cost effectiveness of cloth diapers. The table below shows the number of diapers demanded daily and the probabilities associated with each level of demand.   -According to Table 14-1, if the random number 40 were generated for a particular day, what would the simulated demand be for that day? -According to Table 14-1, if the random number 40 were generated for a particular day, what would the simulated demand be for that day?

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Despite the power of simulation, less than 20% of the largest U.S. corporations use simulation in corporate planning.

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Table 14-4 Table 14-4     -According to Table 14-4, which presents a summary of the Monte Carlo output from a simulation of 200 runs, there are 5 possible values for the variable of concern. If random numbers between 01 and 100 are used to generate values, then a random draw of 72 would produce a variable value of ________. Table 14-4     -According to Table 14-4, which presents a summary of the Monte Carlo output from a simulation of 200 runs, there are 5 possible values for the variable of concern. If random numbers between 01 and 100 are used to generate values, then a random draw of 72 would produce a variable value of ________. -According to Table 14-4, which presents a summary of the Monte Carlo output from a simulation of 200 runs, there are 5 possible values for the variable of concern. If random numbers between 01 and 100 are used to generate values, then a random draw of 72 would produce a variable value of ________.

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Simulation models are useful for economic order quantity problems with probabilistic demand and lead time.

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Which of the following is not considered one of the 5 steps of Monte Carlo Simulation?

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Simulation models can be broken down into which of the following three categories?

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A certain grocery store has noted the following figures with regard to the number of people who arrive at its three checkout stands ready to check out, and the time it takes to check out the individuals. A certain grocery store has noted the following figures with regard to the number of people who arrive at its three checkout stands ready to check out, and the time it takes to check out the individuals.   Create an appropriate table of interval of random numbers for both variables. Create an appropriate table of interval of random numbers for both variables.

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Explain what is meant by a Monte Carlo simulation.

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