Exam 3: Decision Analysis

Mark M. Upp has just been fired as the university book store manager for setting prices too low (only 20 percent above suggested retail). He is considering opening a competing bookstore near the campus, and he has begun an analysis of the situation. There are two possible sites under consideration. One is relatively small, while the other is large. If he opens at Site 1 and demand is good, he will generate a profit of $50,000. If demand is low, he will lose $10,000. If he opens at Site 2 and demand is high he will generate a profit of $80,000, but he will lose $30,000 if demand is low. He also has decided that he will open at one of these sites. He believes that there is a 50 percent chance that demand will be high. He assigns the following utilities to the different profits: For what value of utility for $50,000, U(50000), will Mark be indifferent between the two alternatives?

Describe the utility curve of a risk seeker.

A rational decision maker must choose between two alternatives. Alternative 1 has a higher EMV than Alternative 2, but the decision maker chooses Alternative 2. What might explain why this occurs?

What makes the difference between good decisions and bad decisions?

Robert Weed is considering purchasing life insurance. He must pay a $180 premium for a $100,000 life insurance policy. If he dies this year, his beneficiary will receive $100,000. If he does not die this year, the insurance company pays nothing and Robert must consider paying another premium next year. Based on actuarial tables, there is a 0.001 probability that Robert will die this year. If Robert wishes to maximize his EMV, he would not buy the policy if the EMV were negative for him. He has determined that the EMV is, negative for him, but decides to purchase the insurance anyway. Why?

The ABC Co. is considering a new consumer product. They believe there is a probability of 0.4 that the XYZ Co. will come out with a competitive product. If ABC adds an assembly line for the product and XYZ does not follow with a competitive product, their expected profit is $40,000; if they add an assembly line and XYZ does follow, they still expect a $10,000 profit. If ABC adds a new plant addition and XYZ does not produce a competitive product, they expect a profit of $600,000; if XYZ does compete for this market, ABC expects a loss of $100,000. (a) Determine the EMV of each decision. (b) Determine the EOL of each decision. (c) Compare the results of (a) and (b). (d) Calculate the EVPI.

Before a marketing research study was done, John Colorado believed there was a 50/50 chance that his music store would be a success. The research team determined that there is a 0.9 probability that the marketing research will be favorable given a successful music store. There is also a 0.8 probability that the marketing research will be unfavorable given an unsuccessful music store. (a) If the marketing research is favorable, what is the revised probability of an unsuccessful music store? (b) If the marketing research is unfavorable, what is the revised probability of an unsuccessful music store?

All decisions that result in a favorable outcome are considered to be good decisions.

A decision table is sometimes called a payout table.

Orders for clothing from a particular manufacturer for this year's Christmas shopping season must be placed in February. The cost per unit for a particular dress is $20 while the anticipated selling price is $50. Demand is projected to be 50, 60, or 70 units. There is a 40 percent chance that demand will be 50 units, a 50 percent chance that demand will be 60 units, and a 10 percent chance that demand will be 70 units. The company believes that any leftover goods will have to be scrapped. How many units should be ordered in February?

In a decision problem where we wish to use Bayes' theorem to calculate posterior probabilities, we should always begin our analysis with the assumption that all states of nature are equally likely, and use the sample information to revise these probabilities to more realistic values.

Which of the following is the fourth step of the "Six Steps in Decision Making"?

The equally likely criterion is also called the ________ criterion.

Any problem that can be presented in a decision table can also be graphically portrayed in a decision tree.

Barbour Electric is considering the introduction of a new product. This product can be produced in one of several ways: (a) using the present assembly line at a cost of $25 per unit, (b) using the current assembly line after it has been overhauled (at a cost of $10,000) with a cost of $22 per unit; and (c) on an entirely new assembly line (costing $30,000) designed especially for the new product with a per unit cost of $20. Barbour is worried, however, about the impact of competition. If no competition occurs, they expect to sell 15,000 units the first year. With competition, the number of units sold is expected to drop to 9,000. At the moment, their best estimate is that there is a 40% chance of competition. They have decided to make their decision based on the first year sales. (a) Develop the decision table (EMV). (b) Develop a decision table (EOL). (c) What should they do?

Nick has plans to open some pizza restaurants, but he is not sure how many to open. He has prepared a payoff table to help analyze the situation. Nick believes there is a 40 percent chance that the market will be good, a 30 percent chance that it will be fair, and a 30 percent chance that it will be poor. A market research firm will analyze market conditions and will provide a perfect forecast (they provide a money back guarantee). What is the most that should be paid for this forecast?

The following payoff table provides profits based on various possible decision alternatives and various levels of demand. The probability of a low demand is 0.4, while the probability of a medium and high demand is each 0.3. (a) What decision would an optimist make? (b) What decision would a pessimist make? (c) What is the highest possible expected monetary value? (d) Calculate the expected value of perfect information for this situation.

The maximin decision criterion is used by pessimistic decision makers and minimizes the maximum outcome for every alternative.

The following figure illustrates a utility curve for someone who is a risk seeker.

Optimistic decision makers tend to ________.