Exam 12: Simulation

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Numerical values that appear in the mathematical relationships of a model and are considered known and remain constant over all trials of a simulation are

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Simulation is a trial-and-error approach to problem solving.

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In comparing different policies using simulation, one should use the same set of random numbers whenever possible.

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Common features of simulations--generating values from probability distributions, maintaining records, recording data and summarizing results--led to the development of

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Estimates of the financial information for a new product show the following information: Units Sold Probability Fixed cost \ 8,000 600 .35 Variable cost \ 6/ unit 800 .45 Revenue \ 22/ unit Use the random numbers .51, .97, .58, .22, and .16 to simulate five trials. What is the net profit for each trial?

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A table of uniformly distributed random numbers should be read

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Trials of a simulation show what would happen when values of the probabilistic input change.

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The process of determining that the computer procedure that performs the simulation calculations is logically correct is called

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How are both analysts and managers involved in the validation process?

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A simulation model used in situations where the state of the system at one point in time does not affect the state of the system at future points in time is called a

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The time required to set up lighting for a portrait studio is uniformly distributed between 12 and 20 minutes. Use the following random numbers to generate the setup time for 10 customers. .27 .53 .06 .92 .16 .74 .06 .29 .82 .23

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In order to verify a simulation model

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Validation determines that the computer procedure is operating as it is intended to operate.

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As the owner of a rent-a-car agency you have determined the following statistics: Potential Rentals Daily Probability Rental Duration Probability 1 10 1 day .50 2 .15 2 day .30 3 .20 3 days .15 4 .30 4 days .05 The gross profit is $40 per car per day rented. When there is demand for a car when none is available there is a goodwill loss of $80 and the rental is lost. Each day a car is unused costs you $5 per car. Your firm initially has 4 cars. a.Conduct a 10-day simulation of this business using Row #1 below for demand and Row #2 below for rental length. Row \#1: 63 88 55 46 55 69 13 17 36 81 Row \#2: 59 09 57 87 07 92 29 28 64 36 b.If your firm can obtain another car for $200 for 10 days, should you take the extra car?

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The drying rate in an industrial process is dependent on many factors and varies according to the following distribution. Minutes Relative Frequency 3 .14 4 .30 5 .27 6 .18 7 .11 a.Compute the mean drying time. b.Using these random numbers, simulate the drying time for 12 processes..33 .09 .19 .81 .12 .88 .53 .95 .77 .61 .91 .47 c.What is the average drying time for the 10 processes you simulated?

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The number of units expected to be sold is uniformly distributed between 300 and 500. If r is a random number between 0 and 1, then the proper expression for sales is

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A value for probabilistic input from a discrete probability distribution

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Using the spreadsheet below, give the cell address which would have the formula shown. Cell Formula Belongs in Cell =(18,\ \ 10:\ \ 12,2) =(23,\ \ 11:\ \ 14,2) =1(\ \ 16-19) =(27,\ \ 10:\ \ 12,2) =(18:27)  Using the spreadsheet below, give the cell address which would have the formula shown.  \begin{array}{|l|l|} \hline{\text { Cell Formula }} & \text { Belongs in Cell } \\ \hline=\mathrm{VLOOKUP}(\mathrm{B} 18, \$ \mathrm{~B} \$ 10: \$ \mathrm{C} \$ 12,2) & \\ \hline=\mathrm{VLOOKUP}(\mathrm{D} 23, \$ \mathrm{~F} \$ 11: \$ \mathrm{G} \$ 14,2) & \\ \hline=\mathrm{K} 19^{*}(\$ \mathrm{I} \$ 16-\mathrm{I} 19) & \\ \hline=\mathrm{VLOOKUP}(\mathrm{H} 27, \$ \mathrm{~B} \$ 10: \$ \mathrm{C} \$ 12,2) & \\ \hline=\mathrm{AVERAGE}(\mathrm{L} 18: \mathrm{L} 27) & \\ \hline \end{array}

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How can historical information be used to create discrete probability distributions?

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Verification is the process of ensuring that the simulation model provides an accurate representation of the real system.

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