Exam 13: Decision Analysis

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Why perform sensitivity analysis? Of what use is sensitivity analysis where good probability estimates are difficult to obtain?

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A payoff table is given as State of Nature Decision 250 750 500 300 -250 1200 500 500 600 a.What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b.What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? c.What decision should be made under minimax regret? d.If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3, respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value? e.What is the EVPI?

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