Exam 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Haslett wanted to know what percentage of students at his college vote in local elections. He asked each of his professors (he was a political science major) to ask for a show of hands in his classes, so he could make a count. He found that 45 percent of the 120 classmates polled vote in local elections. He concludes that about 45 percent of the students at his college vote in those elections.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Wolfgang has been to America, once visiting New York and once visiting Columbus. (Why is it always "Columbus, Ohio"? Is there another sizable Columbus?) Now he has an opportunity to visit New Orleans. Wolfgang decides not to go. "Based on my experience, it will be awful-there'll be crime, violence, poverty, rude people, drug addicts-every kind of unpleasantness."

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.) Given the original circumstances, which of these conclusions would produce the strongest argument?

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. The price of a pack of cigarettes in Norway is $11.20, with taxes making up at least 70 percent of the total cost. Contrast that to the United States, where a pack sells for about $4 .50. That's why per capita consumption here is 2,200, whereas in Norway it is 700.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Thirty percent of American people ages nineteen to thirty-nine diet at least once a month, according to a news syndicate poll released last November. These findings are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of people listed in the Los Angeles telephone directory.

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband. Invent at least one plausible alternative explanation of the effect.

In evaluating the following generalization(s), identify sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Let's say that according to statewide studies done in Montana and Virginia, the infant mortality rate for these two states averaged 10.5 per thousand live births. Could this figure be generalized to the infant mortality rate in the United States? What factors might be relevant to the generalization?

In a retrospective observational study, none of the members of the control group show the effect of the cause being investigated.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Since the taxes [on cigarettes] have been going up in Canada, cigarette smoking has been going down, particularly among the young. The lesson here is plain: The best way to reduce smoking is simply to raise the price of cigarettes.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Hank Kingscote has won every one of his fifteen previous prizefights by knockouts. The chances are that the poor fellow who's going to fight him next will wind up stretched out on the canvas.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Stratton takes one look at his new teacher and concludes he is going to like the course. "You can just tell," he says to his girlfriend later, "it's gonna be a great course. The teacher brought up all these interesting subjects-and it was only the first day."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. My front door would creak every time I opened or shut it. I read in an old carpentry publication that the way to fix the problem is tighten the hinges and grease the screws. I did it, and it cured the problem.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. FRESNO-In a new study of dangerous Halloween pranks, Fresno State University sociologist Joel Best has documented the exact number of American children killed or seriously injured by anonymously given, booby-trapped Halloween treats. Best reviewed supposedly real Halloween horror stories appearing from 1958 to 2004 in the New York Times, the Chicago Tribune, the Los Angeles Times, and the Fresno Bee. He did not find a single case in which a Halloween treat anonymously given to a child caused serious harm. He concluded that the infamous Halloween sadist is an "urban myth." -Adapted from a McClatchy News Service release

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.) If Julia orders more expensive birds in the new order, her argument would

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. If you don't want your kids to smoke tobacco, keep them away from marijuana. It has been estimated that 75 percent of pot smokers do use other drugs, including tobacco.

The claim "Fluoridated water prevents tooth decay," if , implies that fluoridated water would prevent tooth decay in the majority of individuals who use it.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Don't buy any Australian wine. I've had Australian wine before and, believe me, you won't like it.

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: A study from the University of Health Sciences/Chicago Medical School suggests, says psychologist David E.Schotte, coauthor of the study, "that dieters have to learn to cope with stresses and emotional upsets in order to lose weight." Fifteen women who were frequent dieters and fifteen who dieted infrequently were all given a premeasured bag of popcorn, and then saw scenes from Halloween.After the screening, each bag was collected and reweighed.The habitual dieters ate more than twice as much popcorn as did the women who dieted infrequently.-Adapted from Sally Squires in the Washington Post

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. "I'm over seventy years old and got all of my natural teeth but one. The secret is to eat a dollop of raw veal bone marrow every day." -Attributed to Mrs. Keller [a "wise old woman of Ohio"] by Robert L. Tubbesing, Old Farmer's Almanac (1986)

Evaluate the following analogical argument: A conversation: "You going to vote for Spankey or Howard in the city council election?" "Howard. As far as I can make out, their experience is the same, and they both take about the same position on the issues. But Spankey was a student of mine. I caught him cheating once."