Exam 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Can I recommend a good mechanic? Sure-B&M Tuneup. I've been taking my car there for years, and I've never had a single complaint. Of course, I have an old Chevy, and you drive a Mazda-one of those rotary-engine jobs, isn't it?

In evaluating the following generalization(s), identify sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Seventy-two percent of those interviewed at a luncheon sponsored by the Camellia Chamber of Commerce favored local tax incentives to attract new businesses. Would this finding generalize to the Camellia population?

In the following passage, identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Would our professor's conclusion, "Sixteen percent of faculty nationwide deduct home office expenses on their federal income tax return," be more accurate if she restricted it to faculty in her own state? A college professor converted one room of her house into a home office and intended to deduct her expenses on her federal income tax return. She wondered how many other college faculty had done the same, thinking that the more who deducted home offices, the less likely her own return would be noticed by the IRS and hence the less likely she would be audited. So she decided to do her own informal survey of her colleagues to see how many of them had home offices. She sent out a questionnaire of three questions to all 1,200 instructors at her campus, and she received 950 responses. (Her promise to share the results of the survey apparently motivated faculty to respond.) As it turned out, 32 percent of her respondents answered yes to the question, "Do you maintain an office at home?" Half of these also answered yes to the question, "Do you deduct your home office expenses on your federal income tax return?" And 24 percent of the entire group of respondents answered yes to the question, "Is your campus office adequate?"

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Six months ago, several of Molly's friends joined the Trimtime Fitness Center. Each of them participated in Trimtime's weight-reduction and fitness regimen. All reported substantial weight reduction, and all are visibly slimmer. Molly is convinced. She joins Trimtime and enrolls in the same program, hoping and expecting to see the same results. She is especially delighted to learn that Trimtime had adjusted its program to make it even more effective in a shorter period of time.

With the same confidence level, a generalization from a larger sample will have

A) Provide an informal analysis of the following passage; or B) in analyzing the passage, do the following: a. Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b. Identify what kind of study it is. c. Describe the control and experimental groups. d. State the difference in effect (or cause) between control and experimental groups. e. Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it, including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f. State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. Does learning how to program a computer help first graders to think? Douglas H. Clements and Dominic F.Gullo of Kent State University randomly assigned eighteen first graders from a middle-class, Midwestern school system into two computer groups.The first group programmed an Apple II computer, using the computer language Logo, during two forty-minute sessions a week for twelve weeks.The other group received computer-based lessons in arithmetic and reading for the same time period.It was found that the children who programmed increased their scores on a creativity test in which they had to devise and draw pictures under time restraints and became better at identifying instances when they had not been given enough information to complete a simple task or understand how a magic trick is performed However, a number of other tests provided no evidence that the programming experience can improve overall thinking abilities.The investigation was reported in the Journal of Educational Psychology.-Adapted from Science News

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Studies indicate that older women who attempt weight training seem to be in better shape physically than those who don't. This is a good reason for older women to lift weights.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. A majority of Americans think that tobacco companies should be prohibited from advertising their products. In a survey of 1,213 adults, 86 percent said that prohibiting tobacco advertising would lower smoking rates. The results of the nationwide telephone survey, conducted by American Opinion Research, Inc., were published in this week's edition of Research Fact. Spokespersons for the American Tobacco Council had no immediate comment on the findings.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Oil will soon disappear because the supply is finite and most of it has been used."

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her arm developed a rash because she's allergic to the bracelet she was wearing."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. The car usually makes it over the hills between here and the lake without any trouble. The only time it makes any trouble is when we have to pull the boat and trailer; they must make too heavy a load for the car's small engine.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. According to a study published by Dr. William P. Newman III of Louisiana State University Medical Center in the New England Journal of Medicine, physicians in Bogalusa, Louisiana, conducted autopsies on thirty-five youngsters ranging in age from seven to twenty-four (the average age was eighteen) who had died mostly from accidents, homicides, or suicides. They found that all but six of the young people had fatty streaks on their aortas, the body's main artery. Fatty streaks are the earliest gross recognizable lesions of atherosclerosis (hardening of the arteries), according to Newman. Since there was a direct link between the number of fatty streaks and the cholesterol levels in the young people, Newman recommended that all schoolchildren be checked for high cholesterol levels.

In evaluating the following generalization(s), identify sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. "In a study done by a University of Pennsylvania psychologist, 29 suburban and 38 inner-city children from the Philadelphia area, ranging in age from 3 to 12 years, were asked to consume foods mixed with 'disgusting' substances, like apple juice stirred with a used comb or containing a dead grasshopper. Almost two-thirds of the children from 3 to 6 sipped juice in which a grasshopper floated. There were no differences between city and suburban children." -Published in Developmental Psychology Would it be safe to say, on the basis of this study, that the same percentage of all American children from ages three to six would be willing to sip juice in which a disgusting object floats? Explain.

A) Provide an informal analysis of the following passage; or B) in analyzing the passage, do the following: a. Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b. Identify what kind of study it is. c. Describe the control and experimental groups. d. State the difference in effect (or cause) between control and experimental groups. e. Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it, including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f. State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. In a study of telephone operators in North Carolina, Suzanne Haynes of the National Center for Health Statistics in Hyattsville, Maryland, compared 278 women who worked all day at video display terminals (VDTs) with 218 clerical workers in the same companies who did not use VDTs. Twice as many VDT users reported chest pains as clerical workers in the same companies-20 percent compared to 10 percent. Perhaps, Haynes commented, "VDTs can be the ultimate nonsupportive boss." -Adapted from Science News

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "They are not attending the concert because they are traveling that weekend."

Read and discuss the following report. In your discussion, identify the experimental and control groups, say whether there may be confounding variables in the study, and determine what the outcome probably was. (What does "no statistically significant difference" probably mean as it is used near the end of the report?) "A report released today said that a small, controlled study found magnets were no more effective than sham devices in treating chronic lower back pain." "But researchers note in the Journal of the American Medical Association that the negative result from an experiment with just 20 patients doesn't rule out the possibilities that magnets can help lower back pain or that magnet therapy can really work. Such therapy has gained enormous popularity in recent years, despite little scientific evidence that the treatments work to relieve pain, improve circulation, or offer any other health benefits. Celebrities, scores of books, and hundreds of Web sites promote the treatments, even though the Food and Drug Administration forbids any healing benefits to be claimed for them. By some estimates, more than $5 billion worth of therapeutic magnets have been sold worldwide. A number of formal experiments, several supported by the National Institutes of Health, are under way to test magnets on a variety of painful chronic conditions. The latest study, carried out by Dr. Edward Collacott of the Veterans Affairs Medical Center in Prescott, Arizona, and colleagues, is thought to be the first published experiment to use active and inactive magnets for more than a single episode of treatment, and for longer than 45 minutes. All the patients in the study group had lower back pain, including the deformation of at least one articulating part of a vertebra. They had experienced pain in the same area of the back for an average of 19 years. Each patient wore a flexible, rubberlike device for a total of six hours a day, three days a week, for two weeks. Each used an active bipolar magnet and an identical-looking, de-magnetized device for one week, but neither the patients nor the doctors treating them knew which therapy was being used. The patients were questioned about their pain using a standardized questionnaire for pain measurement. Doctors also examined the patients more formally to determine the range of motion in the lower spine. At the end of the study, the researchers found 'no statistically significant difference' between patients when they'd been wearing the real magnets or shams. Collacott and his coauthors said more studies should be done to verify their results. This was a pilot study and was not intended to prove or disprove the effectiveness of magnet therapy in general. Additional studies using different magnets, treatment times, and patient populations are needed." -Scripps Howard News Service

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: Researchers at Moros University believed that there was a link between sleep and athletic performance. They performed an experiment in which 300 marathoners between the ages of 17 and 27 were randomly assigned to group A and group A.The researchers concluded through this experiment that lack of sleep significantly impairs athletic performance.[ This is a fictitious experiment.] B.Members who belonged to group A were instructed to sleep for 4 hours a day, while people in group B were instructed to sleep for 8 hours a day.Both groups were instructed to follow similar diets.For two weeks, the members of both groups were asked to run two miles every day, and their lactic acid levels were measured while they ran.The researchers found that members of group A were three times more likely to have a higher lactic acid buildup in their muscles than group B members.Group A members also took twice as long to clear the lactic acid buildup than members of group

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Clark said gun control should not be blamed in situations when the user abuses the weapon. "A gun is an inanimate object," he said. "A plane is an inanimate object, but look at how many people are killed by them and they're not illegal." Clark said that he was raised on a ranch and has "run around with guns since I was big enough to carry them." He added that he has never shot anybody as a result of growing up around guns.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. In an experiment, ten randomly selected women age 45-50 rated thirty randomly selected men of the same age as to attractiveness on a scale of 1 -5. The men were rated on the basis of identical frontal face photographs. Researchers then compared the annual income of the men with their ranks. It was found that the higher a man's annual income, the higher his average "handsomeness rating." Do good looks enhance income? Or does income enhance looks (e.g. through orthodonture, hair styling, etc.)? The researchers said they did not know. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. If we don't know yet what subject she will take, would her argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if her previous six courses had been in four different subjects rather than two?