Exam 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: I'm sure Jim is attending the antiwar rally. Most Liberals are attending it.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she thinks Michel is a great singer is because she's tone-deaf."

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. February 2 is Groundhog Day. If the groundhog sees his shadow, there'll be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, spring is right around the corner.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Less than twenty-four hours after seeing the movie Glade's Corner, which depicts the brutal knifeslaying of an elderly man by teenagers, fifteen-year-old Mark Striker attempted to kill his sixty five- year-old great uncle. His weapon: a knife.

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Would you assess Juanita's argument as stronger, weaker, or neither if you knew that she had made a B in each of her previous courses and not just that she has a B average?

Rachael has been hired by Mane, a fitness company, to see if their new fitness program is an effective method of reducing weight. She recruits 500 overweight people between the ages of 45-60 and randomly assigns them two groups. Group A consists of people who take part in Mane's fitness program for 5 hours a week, while group B consists of people who will undertake cardio and weight training, also 5 times a week. Both groups are instructed to maintain a balanced diet during the course of the experiment. After 3 months, Rachael finds that group A members have lost 10 percent of body fat, while group B members have lost 3 percent of body fat. Identify the target population.

When an experiment displays an outcome that is statistically significant at the .05 level, it means that

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband. What causal claim (if any) is stated or implied in Lin's conclusion?

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Mónica is an excellent Spanish classical dancer. With a bit of practice, she'd probably be a fine flamenco dancer as well.

When we say that the number is "statistically significant," which of these is closest to what we mean?

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Would Juanita's argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if we knew that the new course will be in psychology?

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Mr. Smythe has closed each of the last four contracts with France International. Seems to me he'd be likely to do well with the rest of our overseas deals.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Cheryl and her new acquaintance, Ted, have just walked into Target when she spots her former boyfriend, Lemmy. "Oh, for crying out loud," Cheryl thinks. "Why would he come into Target, of all places? I'm sure I must be being punished for something I did."

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Hamilton City was considering annexing a portion of land adjacent to the city limits where construction of a subdivision was planned. To determine what the residents of the town thought about this annexation and about municipal growth in general, the city council had a poll taken. One thousand of the city's fifteen thousand registered voters were randomly selected and asked three questions: (1) Do you favor no growth, modest growth, or accelerated growth for Hamilton City? (2) Do you favor annexation of the eight-hundred-acre Osborne parcel north of town and its planned subdivision? (3) Should the city enter into agreements with developers promising to supply city services, such as sewers and street maintenance, in return for the added tax revenue the developer's projects will produce? The results of this survey were taken to be the "official" opinion of the voters of Hamilton City.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Washburn has read that it is good to include cabbage in one's diet. He doesn't care much for cabbage, but he likes brussels sprouts. Since the latter look like small cabbages, he assumes that their nutritional benefits will be about the same as those of cabbage.

A) Provide an informal analysis of the following passage; or B) in analyzing the passage, do the following: a. Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b. Identify what kind of study it is. c. Describe the control and experimental groups. d. State the difference in effect (or cause) between control and experimental groups. e. Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it, including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f. State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. Do sudden heart attacks increase with vigorous exercise? A community-based study investigated this issue and discovered that persons who habitually exercised vigorously had a reduced risk of sudden cardiac death as compared with persons who only occasionally exercised vigorously. One hundred thirty-three married men who experienced out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were chosen for the study. They were classified according to their usual amount of activity and the amount of activity at the time of the cardiac arrest. All appeared healthy prior to the heart attacks. The benefits outweighed the risks for men at the upper levels of habitual high-intensity activity. Their overall risk was 40 percent of that of sedentary men. -Adapted from "Stress and Health Report," N. T. Enloe Memorial Hospital Stress and Health Center, Chico, California

In a prospective observational study, the members of the experimental group are exposed to the suspected causal agent by the investigators.

In prospective observational studies, we use "d" to stand for

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason she's not wearing that bracelet is because it reminds her of an old girlfriend."

Rank the following analogical arguments: a. Look, our stereo is a Panasonic and so is our TV, and we've never had any trouble with either of them. Let's get the Panasonic answering machine. Why take chances? b. Look, our stereo is Japanese and so is our TV, and we've never had any trouble with either of them. Let's get the Japanese answering machine. Why take chances? c. Look, Frank's answering machine is a Panasonic and so is Heather's, and they both say they've never had trouble with them. Let's get the Panasonic answering machine. Why take chances?