Exam 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. SUSANVILLE-Fewer than 20 percent of college professors consider themselves shy, according to a new study by two psychologists. "We were surprised by this result because other studies have reported that almost 50 percent of adult Americans think of themselves as shy," said Elliot Smalley, professor at Colusa State University. "College professors are sometimes thought to be an introverted lot, and so we expected perhaps a majority to think of themselves as shy," he said. Smalley and his associate, John Mahmoud, interviewed 150 college professors who were identified by administrators at twenty-five American universities as typical faculty. The universities were selected by a random procedure from a list of American colleges and universities, Smalley said.

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Every time I play tennis my wrist hurts for several days afterward. If my doctor can't help me figure what to do about it, I may have to give up the game.

Make this inductive (statistical) syllogism into a strong argument by supplying an appropriate premise or conclusion: Rayyan must have the book "No Place for Animals." Most animal rightists do.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Mr. Naphal has read in an authoritative science report that a dye commonly injected into Florida oranges is carcinogenic. He resolves not only to avoid Florida oranges until he learns that they no longer are dyed with the same chemical, but also to avoid California oranges and all grapefruit as well.

Mark buys a pair of running shoes that is said to improve the user's speed. When he uses these shoes, he runs faster than he usually does. "It works!" he tells his friend. What type of argument or pattern of reasoning has Mark employed?

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. ATLANTA (UPI)-A long-term federal study by the National Centers for Disease Control of 13 million U.S. births shows increases in the rate of eleven different types of birth defects, including a 17.5 percent yearly average increase in patent ductus arteriosus and a 10.8 percent increase for ventricular septal defects, over a fourteen-year period. The study was conducted by the Birth Defects Monitoring Program of the CDC, which collected its data from hospitals across the country. From 1970 to 1983, over 13 million births were monitored. [An adaptation]

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Do potassium supplements lower blood pressure? Evidence that they might comes from a recent experiment in which male volunteers with high systolic blood pressure were randomly divided into four groups. Three of the groups were given daily supplements containing varying amounts of potassium (500, 100, and 1500 mgs). Men in the fourth group were not given potassium supplements. The men were free otherwise to eat what they wanted. It was found that the higher the potassium dose, the lower the average blood pressure. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

Johnson is hired by a company to see if a new product, Topocal, will cause hair to grow on the heads of bald men. He recruits one thousand bald men and randomly divides them into two groups: Five hundred men (group A) rub Topocal on their scalps each day; the other five hundred (group B) rub a standard skin lotion on their scalps each day. After two months, Johnson checks to see what the results have been. He finds that there has been hair growth in 7 percent of group A and in 2 percent of group B.What is the population?

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Paul Tullius kept records for over a year about his cholesterol levels and his intake of fats and carbohydrates. He found that his cholesterol levels seemed to be influenced very little by the amount of fat he ate, but varied directly with his consumption of carbohydrates. The more of the latter he ate, the higher his cholesterol went. Conversely, when he cut back on the carbs, his cholesterol level dropped back below his usual numbers. He concluded that it was carbs that caused his cholesterol levels to be so high for several years. [This is a fictitious experiment.]

Gwen plays basketball and soccer and has won many awards for the two sports. She thinks she should learn a new sport. She expects to be good at it, given her performance in the other sports. If we don't know which sport she would undertake, would her argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if she had excelled in four sports, rather than two?

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Parker recommends the latest Larry McMurtry novel to Moore. Moore decides not to bother, since every other novel Parker has recommended turned out to be a dud, in Moore's opinion.

Lin sends away for a hot-cold serving tray she has seen advertised. The tray is promised to keep hot dishes hot and cold dishes cold without electricity. Lin tries it out by placing a pan of hot beans on it. They stay hot throughout dinner. "It works," she tells her husband. What kind of causal claim is this?

Evaluate the following analogical argument: When Halley's comet appeared a few years ago, there was an upsurge in the number of suicides across the country. The same thing happened when the Hale-Bopp comet appeared in 1997. I'll bet the next appearance of a visible comet will produce a rash of suicides.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: I like Fuji apples; I'll bet Fuji pears are good too.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "My printer won't work because it's not properly hooked up to my computer."

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: William Elliott, a University of Chicago physician, has found a link between diagonal creases in earlobes and risk of heart disease. He investigated twenty-seven groups of people, each group containing two pairs of individuals matched for age, sex, and race: one pair with established coronary heart disease and another pair of healthy people. A single member of each pair also had creased earlobes. After eight years, a significantly greater number of people with ear creases had died of heart disease, whether or not they were known to have heart disease at the start of the study. Elliott, who reported his findings at a meeting of the American Federation for Clinical Research, encourages other physicians to monitor patients with earlobe creases for symptoms of heart disease. -Adapted from Science News

Rachael has been hired by Mane, a fitness company, to see if their new fitness program is an effective method of reducing weight. She recruits 500 overweight people between the ages of 45-60 and randomly assigns them two groups. Group A consists of people who take part in Mane's fitness program for 5 hours a week, while group B consists of people who will undertake cardio and weight training, also 5 times a week. Both groups are instructed to maintain a balanced diet during the course of the experiment. After 3 months, Rachael finds that group A members have lost 10 percent of body fat, while group B members have lost 3 percent of body fat. Identify the sample.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Noting that recent scientific research suggests that a daily glass of wine or two might be good for the heart, Mr. Laub decides to tank up. "Why in hell not," he says. "If one glass of wine is good for you, most likely five or six is really good for you."

Evaluate the following analogical argument: "He won the Silver Medal of Honor, has a Purple Heart, and was an Eagle Scout. I find it difficult to believe that it was he who committed the robbery."

A) Provide an informal analysis of the following passage; or B) in analyzing the passage, do the following: a. Identify the causal hypothesis at issue. b. Identify what kind of study it is. c. Describe the control and experimental groups. d. State the difference in effect (or cause) between control and experimental groups. e. Identify any problems in either the study or the report of it, including but not necessarily limited to uncontrolled variables. f. State the conclusion you think is warranted by the report. In a study designed to test some of the effects of marijuana on the performance of difficult tasks, Jerome A.Yesavage of Stanford University and his colleagues recruited ten experienced private pilots and trained them on a computerized flight-simulator landing task.All subjects had smoked marijuana at some time in the past, though none of them were daily users.None smoked marijuana during the test period, except as required by the test.The test period began with a morning baseline flight, after which each subject smoked a marijuana cigarette containing 19 milligrams of tetrahydrocannabinol, the active agent in marijuana.The pilots repeated the landing task one, four, and twenty-four hours later.The worst performances compared with the baseline occurred one hour after smoking the cigarette.Twenty-four hours later, however, the pilots still experienced significant difficulty in aligning the computerized airplane and landing it in the center of the runway.According to the scientists, there were marked deviations from the proper angle of descent in the last six thousand feet of approach to the landing.The amount of marijuana smoked is comparable to a strong social dose, the researchers said.-Adapted from Science News