Exam 11: Performance Evaluation Revisited: a Balanced Approach

Evaluate the following analogical argument: Prostitution is legal in the Netherlands, and it doesn't seem to produce any terrible societal problems. I'll bet it would be the same in the United States.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. NEW YORK (AP)-Women who read "bodice-rippers," a sexy, violent genre of historical romance novel, have sex 74 percent more often than nonreaders, according to a survey by two psychologists from the Emory Medical School in Atlanta, who interviewed 72 middle-class women in Atlanta, an equal number of them housewives, working women, and college students. Women who read the romances reported making love an average of 3.04 times a week, compared to 1.75 for nonreaders.

Gwen plays basketball and soccer and has performed adequately in the two sports. She thinks she should learn a new sport. She expects to be adequate at it, given her performance in the other sports. Would her argument be stronger, weaker, or neither if she decided that she would undertake special training to excel at the new sport?

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "Her artistic immaturity makes her think that singers like Jeff are great artists."

Evaluate the following analogical argument: The thing that worries me is that we're going to get bogged down in Iraq just as we got bogged down in Vietnam. The situations are exactly the same: It's us against a poor nation that is determined to win and doesn't play by the rules our military thinkers understand.

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The lack of adequate public transport indirectly contributes to global warming."

Evaluate the following analogical argument: The Patriots easily made it into last year's Super Bowl. They'll have almost the same personnel next year, so I'm putting my money on the Patriots to be back next year.

Evaluate the following generalization(s), identifying sample, population, attribute of interest, and the extent to which the claims involved are knowable. Consider carefully the size and diversification of the sample and the extent to which the population differs or may differ from the sample; remember, what's important is that the sample be representative. Osteoporosis is a degeneration of bone tissue that afflicts between fifteen and twenty million Americans and leads to approximately 1.3 million bone fractures every year. The condition is found mainly among women. A conference sponsored by the National Institutes of Health in 1994 reported that calcium was one of the "mainstays of prevention and management of osteoporosis." In a localized study designed to help predict the future incidence of osteoporosis in women in a midwestern community, a county hospital did a survey on calcium intake. It selected five hundred women at random and asked them to keep a record of their food and dietary supplements for one month. The data were analyzed to determine the amounts of calcium each woman received. It was determined that 85 percent of the surveyed women received less calcium than the recommended amount of 1,000 to 1,500 milligrams per day. County medical authorities concluded that about 85 percent of the community's women were getting less than the recommended intake of calcium. They also concluded that local medical facilities would soon see an increase in the number of cases of osteoporosis as the calcium deficiency showed its effects. Given just the information presented here, how much confidence would you have in these conclusions?

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. "After four years as an associate and brokerage manager with the New York life insurance consulting firm Kramer-Helgans, Sharon Brick noticed that she was being taken more seriously. It wasn't just because she'd done a great job, says Brick. She had changed her hair color from a dull brown to a lighter, more flattering sandy blond. Several months later, Brick was offered a partnership in the firm." -Working Woman

Is the following a physical causal explanation or behavioral causal explanation? "The reason I can't get my printer to work is because I'm a mechanical idiot."

Rachael has been hired by Mane, a fitness company, to see if their new fitness program is an effective method of reducing weight. She recruits 500 overweight people between the ages of 45-60 and randomly assigns them two groups. Group A consists of people who take part in Mane's fitness program for 5 hours a week, while group B consists of people who will undertake cardio and weight training, also 5 times a week. Both groups are instructed to maintain a balanced diet during the course of the experiment. After 3 months, Rachael finds that group A members have lost 10 percent of body fat, while group B members have lost 3 percent of body fat. The research category that best fits this study is

Consider the following passage: Julia sells exotic birds. She has placed four orders with wholesale bird supplier Papagayo Co., and all of them have been filled with healthy birds. Lately, however, some wholesale competitors have been trying to get her to order from them. But, when it's time to make the next order, she decides she's better off with Papagayo because she's pretty sure she'll get healthy birds. (Do not assume that you know anything about birds or the bird business.) The original passage is

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. Between 1984 and 1989, American consumption of oatmeal at breakfast went up 56 percent. Meanwhile, the consumption of coffee dropped 11 percent. For some reason, oatmeal must make coffee taste bad.

Evaluate the following analogical argument: We have visited seven cities in southern Spain, and every one of them has a bull ring. I'll bet there's one in the next Spanish city we visit.

Juanita has taken six courses at Valley Community College, and she has a grade average of B so far. All the courses she has taken have been in sociology and psychology. She's thinking of enrolling in another course next term, and she expects to make at least a B in whatever she takes. Suppose that when she took the previous courses, Juanita had done all her studying alone because she didn't know any of the other students at Valley but that now she knows several good students and plans to study with them when she takes her next course. Would her argument be stronger or weaker?

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: Women who take one to six aspirin tablets a week can lower their risk of heart attacks, according to a new study conducted at Boston's Brigham and Women's Hospital. The study followed 87,678 female nurses for six years. According to the study leader, Dr. JoAnn Manson, there was a 30 percent reduction in the risk of a first heart attack among women who took one to six aspirin tablets per week. Altogether, about 26 percent of the nurses studied took one to six aspirin a week, she said. -Adapted from an article by Judy Foreman, Boston Globe

Critically discuss the following analogical argument: Economic sanctions simply do not work. As a weapon of international persuasion, they are about as effective as popguns. The United Nations imposed drastic sanctions upon Rhodesia; they failed utterly. We imposed sanctions upon Poland; nothing happened. Our government has forbidden trade with Cuba for the past twenty-five years; Cuba goes its own way. Most recently, the president has laid heavy sanctions upon Libya; our noble allies have pooh-poohed the effort. You can count on the same kind of result if economic sanctions are imposed on North Korea.

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: A research was conducted to study the link between insulin production and hunger. 500 people from the age of 18 and 30 were chosen for this experiment. 250 people who had been diagnosed with low production of insulin were assigned to group A, while people with normal insulin production had been assigned to group B.Both groups had been adjusted for race, age, and socioeconomic differences.It was ensured that the participants had eaten before the experiment began.The members of both groups were shown images of various food items while an fMRI measured their brain activities.The part of brain responsible for signaling hunger, the hypothalamus, was activated in 80 percent people in group A, while it was activated in 27 percent people in group B.The researchers concluded that people's insulin production governs their eating habits.[This is a fictitious experiment.]

Evaluate the following argument in accordance with the criteria discussed in the text. "Being happy and having a positive outlook may help people with heart disease avoid heart attacks and other health problems. Approximately one in five coronary heart disease patients is seriously depressed, so be on guard against depression in yourself and your loved ones." -Sharon Faelten, Vitality

Analyze the following study according to the criteria set by your instructor: Smoking greatly increases the likelihood of premature facial wrinkling, according to University of Utah scientists reporting in the Annals of Internal Medicine. The scientists studied 109 smokers and 23 people who had never smoked, all between the ages of thirty-five and fifty-nine. The smokers had smoked three to fifty pack-years, with a pack-year equal to smoking one pack a day per year. Each subject estimated the number of hours spent in the sun, and that information was adjusted for pigmentation, place of residence, and use of sunscreen or protective clothing. The subjects' temples were then photographed and the pictures evaluated by two doctors, who did not know whether the subject smoked or not. The reviewers agreed on the degree of wrinkling 81 percent of the time, and disagreements were averaged. The results were adjusted for age and pigmentation. Heavy smokers were nearly five times more likely to show excessive skin wrinkling than their nonsmoking counterparts. -Adapted from Science News and AP reports