Exam 4: Basic Probability

TABLE 4-12 Jake woke up late in the morning on the day that he has to go to school to take an important test. He can either take the shuttle bus which is usually running late 20% of the time or ride his unreliable motorcycle which breaks down 40% of the time. He decides to toss a fair coin to make his choice. -Referring to Table 4-12, if Jake, in fact, gets to the test on time, what is the probability that he took the bus?

If P(A and B) = 0, then A and B must be collectively exhaustive.

Suppose A and B are events where P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.5, and P(A and B) = 0.1. Then P(B|A) = ________.

Suppose A and B are independent events where P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.5. Then P(A or B) = ________.

TABLE 4-9 A survey conducted by the Segal Company of New York found that in a sample of 189 large companies, 40 offered stock options to their board members as part of their non-cash compensation packages. For small- to mid-sized companies, 43 of the 180 surveyed indicated that they offer stock options as part of their noncash compensation packages to their board members. -Referring to Table 4-9, if a company is selected at random, what is the probability that the company is small to mid-sized or offered stock options to their board members?

There are 10 finalists at a national dog show. How many different orders of finishing can there be for all the 10 finalists?

TABLE 4-11 A sample of 300 adults is selected. The contingency table below shows their registration status and their preferred source of information on current events. -Referring to Table 4-11, if an adult is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she is a registered voter who prefer to get his/her current information from the television?

The probability that a new advertising campaign will increase sales is assessed as being 0.80. The probability that the cost of developing the new ad campaign can be kept within the original budget allocation is 0.40. Assuming that the two events are independent, the probability that the cost is kept within budget and the campaign will increase sales is

Seven passengers are on a waiting list for an overbooked flight. As a result of cancellations, 3 seats become available. How many different ways can those 3 available seats be filled regardless of the order?

TABLE 4-10 Are whites more likely to claim bias? It was found that 60% of the workers were white, 30% were black and 10% are other races. Given that a worker was white, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 30%. Given that a worker was black, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 40%. Given that a worker was other race, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 0%. -Referring to Table 4-10, if a randomly selected worker had not claimed bias, what is the probability that the worker is white?

TABLE 4-2 An alcohol awareness task force at a Big-Ten university sampled 200 students after the midterm to ask them whether they went bar hopping the weekend before the midterm or spent the weekend studying, and whether they did well or poorly on the midterm. The following result was obtained. -Referring to Table 4-2, the events "Did Well on Midterm" and "Studying for Exam" are

TABLE 4-1 Mothers Against Drunk Driving is a very visible group whose main focus is to educate the public about the harm caused by drunk drivers. A study was recently done that emphasized the problem we all face with drinking and driving. Four hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: -Referring to Table 4-1, what proportion of accidents involved more than one vehicle?

TABLE 4-10 Are whites more likely to claim bias? It was found that 60% of the workers were white, 30% were black and 10% are other races. Given that a worker was white, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 30%. Given that a worker was black, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 40%. Given that a worker was other race, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 0%. -Referring to Table 4-10, what is the probability that a randomly selected worker had not claimed bias?

TABLE 4-4 Suppose that patrons of a restaurant were asked whether they preferred water or whether they preferred soda. 70% said that they preferred water. 60% of the patrons were male. 80% of the males preferred water. -Referring to Table 4-4, suppose a randomly selected patron prefers water. Then the probability the patron is a male is ________.

An investment consultant is recommending a certain class of mutual funds to the clienteles based on its exceptionally high probability of gain. It is an ethical practice to explain to the clienteles what the meaning of probability is.

TABLE 4-1 Mothers Against Drunk Driving is a very visible group whose main focus is to educate the public about the harm caused by drunk drivers. A study was recently done that emphasized the problem we all face with drinking and driving. Four hundred accidents that occurred on a Saturday night were analyzed. Two items noted were the number of vehicles involved and whether alcohol played a role in the accident. The numbers are shown below: -Referring to Table 4-1, given that alcohol was not involved, what proportion of the accidents were multiple vehicle?

A business venture can result in the following outcomes (with their corresponding chance of occurring in parentheses): Highly Successful (10%), Successful (25%), Break Even (25%), Disappointing (20%), and Highly Disappointing (?). If these are the only outcomes possible for the business venture, what is the chance that the business venture will be considered Highly Disappointing?

TABLE 4-7 The next state lottery will have the following -Referring to Table 4-7, the probability that you win at least $100.00 is ________.

A company has 2 machines that produce widgets. An older machine produces 23% defective widgets, while the new machine produces only 8% defective widgets. In addition, the new machine produces 3 times as many widgets as the older machine does. What is the probability that a randomly chosen widget produced by the company is defective?

TABLE 4-10 Are whites more likely to claim bias? It was found that 60% of the workers were white, 30% were black and 10% are other races. Given that a worker was white, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 30%. Given that a worker was black, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 40%. Given that a worker was other race, the probability that the worker had claimed bias was 0%. -Referring to Table 4-10, what is the probability that a randomly selected worker is black and had not claimed bias or is white and has claimed bias?