Exam 13: Simple Linear Regression

The sample correlation coefficient between X and Y is 0.375. It has been found out that the p-value is 0.744 when testing H₀: ρ = 0 against the one-sided alternative H₁: ρ < 0. To test H₀: ρ = 0 against the two-sided alternative H₁: ρ ≠ 0 at a significance level of 0.1, the p-value is

The strength of the linear relationship between two numerical variables may be measured by the

TABLE 13-10 The management of a chain electronic store would like to develop a model for predicting the weekly sales (in thousands of dollars) for individual stores based on the number of customers who made purchases. A random sample of 12 stores yields the following results: Customers Sales (Thousands of Dollars) 907 11.20 926 11.05 713 8.21 741 9.21 780 9.42 898 10.08 510 6.73 529 7.02 460 6.12 872 9.52 650 7.53 603 7.25 -Referring to Table 13-10, generate the scatter plot.

TABLE 13-7 An investment specialist claims that if one holds a portfolio that moves in the opposite direction to the market index like the S&P 500, then it is possible to reduce the variability of the portfolio's return. In other words, one can create a portfolio with positive returns but less exposure to risk. A sample of 26 years of S&P 500 index and a portfolio consisting of stocks of private prisons, which are believed to be negatively related to the S&P 500 index, is collected. A regression analysis was performed by regressing the returns of the prison stocks portfolio (Y) on the returns of S&P 500 index (X) to prove that the prison stocks portfolio is negatively related to the S&P 500 index at a 5% level of significance. The results are given in the following Excel output. Coefficients Standard Error T Stat p -value Intercept 4.8660 0.3574 13.6136 8.7932-13 S \&P -0.5025 0.0716 -7.0186 2.94942-07 Note: 2.94942E-07 = 2.94942*10⁻⁷ -Referring to Table 13-7, to test whether the prison stocks portfolio is negatively related to the S&P 500 index, the appropriate null and alternative hypotheses are, respectively,

TABLE 13-13 In this era of tough economic conditions, voters increasingly ask the question: "Is the educational achievement level of students dependent on the amount of money the state in which they reside spends on education?" The partial computer output below is the result of using spending per student ($) as the independent variable and composite score which is the sum of the math, science and reading scores as the dependent variable on 35 states that participated in a study. The table includes only partial results. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.3122 R Square 0.0975 Adjusted R 0.0701 Square Standard 26.9122 Error Observations 35 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Regression 1 2581.5759 Residual 724.2674 Total 34 26482.4000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 595.540251 22.115176 Spending per Student () 0.007996 0.004235 -Referring to Table 13-13, the conclusion on the test of whether composite score depends linearly on spending per student using a 10% level of significance is ________

TABLE 13-4 The managers of a brokerage firm are interested in finding out if the number of new clients a broker brings into the firm affects the sales generated by the broker. They sample 12 brokers and determine the number of new clients they have enrolled in the last year and their sales amounts in thousands of dollars. These data are presented in the table that follows. 1 27 52 2 11 37 3 42 64 4 33 55 5 15 29 6 15 34 7 25 58 8 36 59 9 28 44 10 30 48 11 17 31 12 22 38 -Referring to Table 13-4, the coefficient of correlation is ________.

TABLE 13-9 It is believed that, the average numbers of hours spent studying per day (HOURS) during undergraduate education should have a positive linear relationship with the starting salary (SALARY, measured in thousands of dollars per month) after graduation. Given below is the Excel output for predicting starting salary (Y) using number of hours spent studying per day (X) for a sample of 51 students. NOTE: Only partial output is shown. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.8857 R Square 0.7845 Adjusted R Square 0.7801 Standard Error 1.3704 Observations 51 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 335.0472 335.0473 178.3859 Residual 1.8782 Total 50 427.0798 Standard Coefficients Error t Stat P-value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept -1.8940 0.4018 -4.7134 2.051-05 -2.7015 -1.0865 Hours 0.9795 0.0733 13.3561 5.944-18 0.8321 1.1269 Note: 2.051E - 05 = 2.051*10⁻⁰⁵ and 5.944E - 18 = 5.944*10⁻¹⁸. -Referring to Table 13-9, to test the claim that SALARY depends positively on HOURS against the null hypothesis that SALARY does not depend linearly on HOURS, the p-value of the test statistic is

The Y-intercept (b₀)represents the

TABLE 13-4 The managers of a brokerage firm are interested in finding out if the number of new clients a broker brings into the firm affects the sales generated by the broker. They sample 12 brokers and determine the number of new clients they have enrolled in the last year and their sales amounts in thousands of dollars. These data are presented in the table that follows. 1 27 52 2 11 37 3 42 64 4 33 55 5 15 29 6 15 34 7 25 58 8 36 59 9 28 44 10 30 48 11 17 31 12 22 38 -Referring to Table 13-4, the managers of the brokerage firm wanted to test the hypothesis that the population slope was equal to 0. At a level of significance of 0.01, the null hypothesis should be ________ (rejected or not rejected).

TABLE 13-10 The management of a chain electronic store would like to develop a model for predicting the weekly sales (in thousands of dollars) for individual stores based on the number of customers who made purchases. A random sample of 12 stores yields the following results: Customers Sales (Thousands of Dollars) 907 11.20 926 11.05 713 8.21 741 9.21 780 9.42 898 10.08 510 6.73 529 7.02 460 6.12 872 9.52 650 7.53 603 7.25 -Referring to Table 13-10, what is the p-value of the t test statistic when testing whether the number of customers who make a purchase affects weekly sales?

Regression analysis is used for prediction, while correlation analysis is used to measure the strength of the association between two numerical variables.

TABLE 13-11 A computer software developer would like to use the number of downloads (in thousands) for the trial version of his new shareware to predict the amount of revenue (in thousands of dollars) he can make on the full version of the new shareware. Following is the output from a simple linear regression along with the residual plot and normal probability plot obtained from a data set of 30 different sharewares that he has developed: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.8691 R Square 0.7554 Adjusted R Square 0.7467 Standard Error 44.4765 Observations 30.0000 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 171062.9193 171062.9193 86.4759 0.0000 Residual 28 55388.4309 1978.1582 Total 29 226451.3503 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95\% \multicolumn 1 r Upper 95\% Intercept -95.0614 26.9183 -3.5315 0.0015 -150.2009 -39.9218 Download 3.7297 0.4011 9.2992 0.0000 2.9082 4.5513 -Referring to Table 13-11, which of the following is the correct alternative hypothesis for testing whether there is a linear relationship between revenue and the number of downloads?

If the plot of the residuals is fan shaped, which assumption is violated?

TABLE 13-5 The managing partner of an advertising agency believes that his company's sales are related to the industry sales. He uses Microsoft Excel to analyze the last 4 years of quarterly data (i.e., n = 16) with the following results: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.802 R Square 0.643 Adjusted R Square 0.618 Standard Error SYX 0.9224 Observations 16 ANOVA df SS MS F Sig.F Regression 1 21.497 21.497 25.27 0.000 Error 14 11.912 0.851 Total 15 33.409 p -value Intercept 3.962 1.440 2.75 0.016 Industry 0.040451 0.008048 5.03 0.000 Durbin-Watson Statistic $1.59$ -Referring to Table 13-5, the estimates of the Y-intercept and slope are ________ and ________, respectively.

TABLE 13-12 The manager of the purchasing department of a large saving and loan organization would like to develop a model to predict the amount of time (measured in hours) it takes to record a loan application. Data are collected from a sample of 30 days, and the number of applications recorded and completion time in hours is recorded. Below is the regression output: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9447 R Square 0.8924 Adjusted R 0.8886 Square Standard 0.3342 Error Observations 30 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 25.9438 25.9438 232.2200 4.3946-15 Residual 28 3.1282 0.1117 Total 29 29.072 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P -value Lower 95\% Upper 95\% Intercept 0.4024 0.1236 3.2559 0.0030 0.1492 0.6555 Applications Recorded 0.0126 0.0008 15.2388 4.3946-15 0.0109 0.0143 Note: 4.3946E-15 is 4.3946*10^-15 -Referring to Table 13-12, the p-value of the measured t test statistic to test whether the number of loan applications recorded affects the amount of time is

TABLE 13-4 The managers of a brokerage firm are interested in finding out if the number of new clients a broker brings into the firm affects the sales generated by the broker. They sample 12 brokers and determine the number of new clients they have enrolled in the last year and their sales amounts in thousands of dollars. These data are presented in the table that follows. 1 27 52 2 11 37 3 42 64 4 33 55 5 15 29 6 15 34 7 25 58 8 36 59 9 28 44 10 30 48 11 17 31 12 22 38 -Referring to Table 13-4, set up a scatter plot.

TABLE 13-13 In this era of tough economic conditions, voters increasingly ask the question: "Is the educational achievement level of students dependent on the amount of money the state in which they reside spends on education?" The partial computer output below is the result of using spending per student ($) as the independent variable and composite score which is the sum of the math, science and reading scores as the dependent variable on 35 states that participated in a study. The table includes only partial results. Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.3122 R Square 0.0975 Adjusted R 0.0701 Square Standard 26.9122 Error Observations 35 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Regression 1 2581.5759 Residual 724.2674 Total 34 26482.4000 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 595.540251 22.115176 Spending per Student () 0.007996 0.004235 -Referring to Table 13-13, if the state decides to spend 1,000 dollar more per student, the estimated change in mean composite score is ________.

TABLE 13-11 A computer software developer would like to use the number of downloads (in thousands) for the trial version of his new shareware to predict the amount of revenue (in thousands of dollars) he can make on the full version of the new shareware. Following is the output from a simple linear regression along with the residual plot and normal probability plot obtained from a data set of 30 different sharewares that he has developed: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.8691 R Square 0.7554 Adjusted R Square 0.7467 Standard Error 44.4765 Observations 30.0000 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 171062.9193 171062.9193 86.4759 0.0000 Residual 28 55388.4309 1978.1582 Total 29 226451.3503 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95\% \multicolumn 1 r Upper 95\% Intercept -95.0614 26.9183 -3.5315 0.0015 -150.2009 -39.9218 Download 3.7297 0.4011 9.2992 0.0000 2.9082 4.5513 -Referring to Table 13-11, the homoscedasticity of error assumption appears to have been violated.

TABLE 13-11 A computer software developer would like to use the number of downloads (in thousands) for the trial version of his new shareware to predict the amount of revenue (in thousands of dollars) he can make on the full version of the new shareware. Following is the output from a simple linear regression along with the residual plot and normal probability plot obtained from a data set of 30 different sharewares that he has developed: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.8691 R Square 0.7554 Adjusted R Square 0.7467 Standard Error 44.4765 Observations 30.0000 $\text { ANOVA }$ df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 171062.9193 171062.9193 86.4759 0.0000 Residual 28 55388.4309 1978.1582 Total 29 226451.3503 Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95\% \multicolumn 1 r Upper 95\% Intercept -95.0614 26.9183 -3.5315 0.0015 -150.2009 -39.9218 Download 3.7297 0.4011 9.2992 0.0000 2.9082 4.5513 -Referring to Table 13-11, the normality of error assumption appears to have been violated.

TABLE 13-5 The managing partner of an advertising agency believes that his company's sales are related to the industry sales. He uses Microsoft Excel to analyze the last 4 years of quarterly data (i.e., n = 16) with the following results: Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.802 R Square 0.643 Adjusted R Square 0.618 Standard Error SYX 0.9224 Observations 16 ANOVA df SS MS F Sig.F Regression 1 21.497 21.497 25.27 0.000 Error 14 11.912 0.851 Total 15 33.409 p -value Intercept 3.962 1.440 2.75 0.016 Industry 0.040451 0.008048 5.03 0.000 Durbin-Watson Statistic $1.59$ -If the Durbin-Watson statistic has a value close to 0, which assumption is violated?