Question 1

Mature products with stable demand

Accepted Answer

A)  are usually easiest to forecast. 
B)  are usually hardest to forecast. 
C)  cannot be forecast. 
D)  do not need to be forecast. 
A)  are usually easiest to forecast. 
B)  are usually hardest to forecast. 
C)  cannot be forecast. 
D)  do not need to be forecast. A

Question 2

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Accepted Answer

A)  aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B)  disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C)  short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D)  long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts. 
A)  aggregate forecasts are usually less accurate than disaggregate forecasts. 
B)  disaggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than aggregate forecasts. 
C)  short-term forecasts are usually less accurate than long-term forecasts. 
D)  long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts. D

Question 3

Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for March. What is the forecast if α = 0.7?

Accepted Answer

A)  27.5 
B)  31.25 
C)  28.75 
D)  29.25 
A)  27.5 
B)  31.25 
C)  28.75 
D)  29.25 A

Question 4

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

Accepted Answer

A)  scheduling. 
B)  sales-force allocation. 
C)  promotions. 
D)  budgetary planning. 
A)  scheduling. 
B)  sales-force allocation. 
C)  promotions. 
D)  budgetary planning.

Question 6

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

Accepted Answer

A)  are extremely simple. 
B)  are relatively straightforward. 
C)  are extremely difficult. 
D)  should not be attempted. 
A)  are extremely simple. 
B)  are relatively straightforward. 
C)  are extremely difficult. 
D)  should not be attempted.

Question 7

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

Accepted Answer

A)  Qualitative 
B)  Time-series 
C)  Causal 
D)  Simulation 
A)  Qualitative 
B)  Time-series 
C)  Causal 
D)  Simulation

Question 9

The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is

Accepted Answer

A)  mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D)  the tracking signal. 
A)  mean squared error (MS
E) . 
B)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
C)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
D)  the tracking signal.

Question 10

A static method of forecasting

Accepted Answer

A)  assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B)  assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed. 
C)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D)  All of the above are true. 
A)  assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B)  assumes that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component vary as new demand is observed. 
C)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D)  All of the above are true.

Question 11

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

Accepted Answer

A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality.

Question 12

Use this table to answer the following question: 
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Period } & \text { Demand } \
\hline 1 & 173 \
\hline 2 & 177 \
\hline 3 & 180 \
\hline 4 & 151 \
\hline 5 & 168 \
\hline 6 & 184 \
\hline 7 & 198 \
\hline 8 & 191 \
\hline 9 & 167 \
\hline 10 & 177 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the largest value for the tracking signal (either under or overforecasting) if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2?

Accepted Answer

A)  1.86 
B)  -2.07 
C)  2.58 
D)  3.24 
A)  1.86 
B)  -2.07 
C)  2.58 
D)  3.24

Question 13

Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
Develop forecasts for June through October using these techniques: moving average of two period, simple exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.8, and Holt's method. For the exponential smoothing model assume that the forecast for May is the actual demand for May. Comment on the use of these three methods to generate a forecast in this situation.

Accepted Answer

The moving average of two periods result

Question 14

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

Accepted Answer

A)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
B)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C)  bias. 
D)  the tracking signal. 
A)  mean absolute deviation (MA
D) . 
B)  mean absolute percentage error (MAP
E) . 
C)  bias. 
D)  the tracking signal.

Question 15

In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

Accepted Answer

A)  -2.5 
B)  10.3 
C)  2.5 
D)  6.4 
A)  -2.5 
B)  10.3 
C)  2.5 
D)  6.4

Question 17

Marshmallow Madness
Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table.
$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Month } & \text { Demand } \
\hline \text { January } & 11 \
\hline \text { February } & 18 \
\hline \text { March } & 31 \
\hline \text { April } & 39 \
\hline \text { May } & 44 \
\hline \text { June } & 53 \
\hline \text { July } & 67 \
\hline \text { August } & 82 \
\hline \text { September } & 96 \
\hline
\end{array}$
-Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for July. What is the forecast?

Accepted Answer

A)  67 
B)  58 
C)  48.5 
D)  45.3 
A)  67 
B)  58 
C)  48.5 
D)  45.3

Question 18

In adaptive forecasting,

Accepted Answer

A)  there is an assumption that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new demand is observed. 
C)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D)  All of the above are true. 
A)  there is an assumption that the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component do not vary as new demand is observed. 
B)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality within the systematic component are not adjusted as new demand is observed. 
C)  the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation. 
D)  All of the above are true.

Question 19

The moving average forecast method is used when

Accepted Answer

A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality. 
A)  demand has observable trend or seasonality. 
B)  demand has no observable trend or seasonality. 
C)  demand has observable trend and seasonality. 
D)  demand has no observable level or seasonality.

Question 20

The goal of any forecasting method is to

Accepted Answer

A)  predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component. 
B)  predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component. 
C)  predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component. 
D)  predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component. 
A)  predict the random component of demand and estimate the systematic component. 
B)  predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component. 
C)  predict the seasonal component of demand and estimate the random component. 
D)  predict the random component of demand and estimate the seasonal component.

Mature products with stable demand

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for March. What is the forecast if α = 0.7?

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is

A static method of forecasting

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for July. What is the forecast?

In adaptive forecasting,

The moving average forecast method is used when

The goal of any forecasting method is to

Understanding the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to e-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand in a Supply Chain

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Determining the Optimal Level of Product Availability

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters

Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

Mature products with stable demand

One of the characteristics of forecasts is

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -Use exponential smoothing to forecast the demand for March. What is the forecast if α = 0.7?

Collaborative forecasting based on sales to the end customer can help enterprises further up the supply chain reduce forecast error.

Production can utilize forecasts to make decisions concerning

When either the supply of raw materials or the demand for the finished product is highly variable, forecasting and the accompanying managerial decisions

Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when there is good historical data available or when experts do not have market intelligence that is critical in making the forecast.

________ forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.

The measure of forecast error where the amount of error of each forecast is squared and then an average is calculated is

A static method of forecasting

The simple exponential smoothing forecast method is appropriate when

The measure of whether a forecast method consistently over- or underestimates demand is

In adaptive forecasting, the estimates of level, trend, and seasonality are updated after each demand observation.

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -Use a simple moving average of three periods to forecast the demand for July. What is the forecast?

In adaptive forecasting,

The moving average forecast method is used when

The goal of any forecasting method is to

Understanding the Supply Chain

Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and Scope

Supply Chain Drivers and Metrics

Designing Distribution Networks and Applications to e-Business

Network Design in the Supply Chain

Designing Global Supply Chain Networks

Aggregate Planning in a Supply Chain

Sales and Operations Planning: Planning Supply and Demand in a Supply Chain

Coordination in a Supply Chain

Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle Inventory

Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety Inventory

Determining the Optimal Level of Product Availability

Transportation in a Supply Chain

Sourcing Decisions in a Supply Chain

Pricing and Revenue Management in a Supply Chain

Sustainability and the Supply Chain

Filters