Exam 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain

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Use this table to answer the following question: Period Demand 1 173 2 177 3 180 4 151 5 168 6 184 7 198 8 191 9 167 10 177 -Calculate the MSE for this Table if the forecasts for periods 1-10 are in order, 176.6, 174.2, 176.1, 178.7, 160.4, 165.4, 177.7, 191.1, 191.0, and 175.2.

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For pull processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to plan the level of available capacity and inventory.

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The measure of forecast error where the absolute amount of error of each forecast is averaged is

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Long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.

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Long-term forecasts are usually less accurate than short-term forecasts because

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Marshmallow Madness Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 -What is the level component of Holt's model for period 0?

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The additive form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

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The mixed form of the systematic component of demand is shown as

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Forecasts should include both the expected value of the forecast and a measure of forecast error.

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The trend corrected exponential smoothing (Holt's Model) forecast method is appropriate when

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When all stages of a supply chain produce a collaborative forecast, it tends to be

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Qualitative forecasting methods are most appropriate when

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The forecast of demand forms the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain.

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For push processes, a manager must forecast what customer demand will be in order to

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Forecasts are always wrong and therefore

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Mature products with stable demand are usually the most difficult to forecast.

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Which forecasting methods are the simplest to implement and can serve as a good starting point for a demand forecast?

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The goal of any forecasting method is to predict the systematic component of demand and estimate the random component.

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Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate than disaggregate forecasts, as they tend to have a smaller standard deviation of error relative to the mean.

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Which of the following is a commonly used measure for measuring forecast error?

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