Exam 13: Regression and Forecasting Models
Exam 1: Introduction to Modeling30 Questions
Exam 2: Introduction to Spreadsheet Modeling30 Questions
Exam 3: Introduction to Optimization Modeling30 Questions
Exam 4: Linear Programming Models31 Questions
Exam 5: Network Models30 Questions
Exam 6: Optimization Models With Integer Variables30 Questions
Exam 7: Nonlinear Optimization Models30 Questions
Exam 8: Evolutionary Solver: An Alternative Optimization Procedure30 Questions
Exam 9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty30 Questions
Exam 10: Introduction to Simulation Modeling30 Questions
Exam 11: Simulation Models30 Questions
Exam 12: Queueing Models30 Questions
Exam 13: Regression and Forecasting Models30 Questions
Exam 14: Data Mining30 Questions
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In regression analysis,we can often use the standard error of estimate se to judge which of several potential regression equations is the most useful.
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Correct Answer:
True
The biggest challenge of regression is:
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B
A time series can consist of four different components: trend,seasonal,cyclical,and random (or noise).
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True
When using the moving average method,you must select ____ which represent(s)the number of terms in the moving average.
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Exhibit 13-2
The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below:
-Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Use the information above to estimate the linear regression model.

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In multiple regression,the regression coefficients reflect the expected change in:
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A model that uses temperature,season of the year (fall,winter,spring,summer),and whether or not it is a weekend,to predict the # of customers for the day would include how many independent variables
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The percentage of variation explained R2 is the square of the correlation between the observed Y values and the fitted Y values.
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Exhibit 13-2
The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below:
-Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients of the regression model above.

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In regression analysis,the variable we are trying to explain or predict is called the
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Exhibit 13-3
The quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of a large bank are recorded in the table below.
-Refer to Exhibit 13-3.Obtain a time series chart.Which of the forecasting models (one or more)do you think should be used for forecasting based on this chart
Why

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The residual is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted,or fitted values of the response variable.
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The adjusted R2 is used primarily to monitor whether extra explanatory variables really belong in a multiple regression model.
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A useful graph in almost any regression analysis is a scatterplot of residuals (on the vertical axis)versus fitted values (on the horizontal axis),where a "good" fit not only has small residuals,but it has residuals scattered randomly around zero with no apparent pattern.
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Exhibit 13-2
The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below:
-Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Identify and interpret the percentage of variation explained (R2)for the model.

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In reference to the equation ,the value 0.10 is the expected change in Y per unit change in X.
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The smoothing constant used in simple exponential smoothing is analogous to the span in moving averages.
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