Exam 13: Regression and Forecasting Models

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In regression analysis,we can often use the standard error of estimate se to judge which of several potential regression equations is the most useful.

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The biggest challenge of regression is:

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A time series can consist of four different components: trend,seasonal,cyclical,and random (or noise).

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A "fan" shape in a scatterplot indicates:

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When using the moving average method,you must select ____ which represent(s)the number of terms in the moving average.

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Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​ Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​   -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Use the information above to estimate the linear regression model. -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Use the information above to estimate the linear regression model.

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In multiple regression,the regression coefficients reflect the expected change in:

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A model that uses temperature,season of the year (fall,winter,spring,summer),and whether or not it is a weekend,to predict the # of customers for the day would include how many independent variables

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The percentage of variation explained R2 is the square of the correlation between the observed Y values and the fitted Y values.

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The term autocorrelation refers to:

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Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​ Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​   -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients of the regression model above. -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Interpret each of the estimated regression coefficients of the regression model above.

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In regression analysis,the variable we are trying to explain or predict is called the

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Exhibit 13-3 The quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of a large bank are recorded in the table below. Exhibit 13-3 The quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a branch office of a large bank are recorded in the table below.    -Refer to Exhibit 13-3.Obtain a time series chart.Which of the forecasting models (one or more)do you think should be used for forecasting based on this chart  Why -Refer to Exhibit 13-3.Obtain a time series chart.Which of the forecasting models (one or more)do you think should be used for forecasting based on this chart Why

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The residual is defined as the difference between the actual and predicted,or fitted values of the response variable.

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The adjusted R2 adjusts R2 for:

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The adjusted R2 is used primarily to monitor whether extra explanatory variables really belong in a multiple regression model.

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A useful graph in almost any regression analysis is a scatterplot of residuals (on the vertical axis)versus fitted values (on the horizontal axis),where a "good" fit not only has small residuals,but it has residuals scattered randomly around zero with no apparent pattern.

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Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​ Exhibit 13-2 The station manager of a local television station is interested in predicting the amount of television (in hours) that people will watch in the viewing area. The explanatory variables are: X1 age (in years), X2 education (highest level obtained, in years) and X3 family size (number of family members in household). The multiple regression output is shown below: ​   -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Identify and interpret the percentage of variation explained (R<sup>2</sup>)for the model. -Refer to Exhibit 13-2.Identify and interpret the percentage of variation explained (R2)for the model.

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In reference to the equation Y^=0.70+0.10X\hat { Y } = - 0.70 + 0.10 X ,the value 0.10 is the expected change in Y per unit change in X.

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The smoothing constant used in simple exponential smoothing is analogous to the span in moving averages.

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