Question 1

Which of the following are costs of an inaccurate forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) Lost sales. 
B) Inventory. 
C) An understaffed office. 
D) Lower profits. 
E) All of the above. 
A) Lost sales. 
B) Inventory. 
C) An understaffed office. 
D) Lower profits. 
E) All of the above. E

Question 2

Exponential smoothing with trend requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  True

Question 3

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean square error?

Accepted Answer

A) 5 
B) 9 
C) 25 
D) 29.67 
E) 89 
A) 5 
B) 9 
C) 25 
D) 29.67 
E) 89 D

Question 4

The mean square error is the square of the mean of the absolute deviations.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

The primary method for causal forecasting is:

Accepted Answer

A) sensitivity analysis. 
B) linear regression. 
C) moving-average. 
D) exponential smoothing. 
E) the Delphi method. 
A) sensitivity analysis. 
B) linear regression. 
C) moving-average. 
D) exponential smoothing. 
E) the Delphi method.

Question 6

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a last-value forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) 0. 
B) 0.01. 
C) 0.1. 
D) 0.5. 
E) 1. 
A) 0. 
B) 0.01. 
C) 0.1. 
D) 0.5. 
E) 1.

Question 7

Figure
An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A) 22,000. 
B) 20,000. 
C) 18,000. 
D) 15,000. 
E) 12,000. 
A) 22,000. 
B) 20,000. 
C) 18,000. 
D) 15,000. 
E) 12,000.

Question 8

Once accepted by managers,forecasts should not be overridden.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

The equation y = 350 - 2.5x is used to predict quarterly demand where x = 0 in the second quarter of last year.Quarterly seasonal factors are Q1 = 1.5,Q2 = 0.8,Q3 = 1.1,and Q4 = 0.6.What is the forecast for the last quarter of this year?

Accepted Answer

A) 199.5. 
B) 201. 
C) 266. 
D) 268. 
E) 335. 
A) 199.5. 
B) 201. 
C) 266. 
D) 268. 
E) 335.

Question 10

Which of the following would be considered a possible drawback of using executive opinions to develop a forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) It is difficult to interpret the results. 
B) Responsibility is diffused for the forecast. 
C) Extensive use of computers is needed. 
D) It brings together the knowledge of top managers. 
E) Forecasters are sometimes overly influenced by recent events. 
A) It is difficult to interpret the results. 
B) Responsibility is diffused for the forecast. 
C) Extensive use of computers is needed. 
D) It brings together the knowledge of top managers. 
E) Forecasters are sometimes overly influenced by recent events.

Question 11

Judgmental forecasting methods have been developed to interpret statistical data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

The mean absolute deviation is the sum of the absolute value of forecasting errors divided by the number of forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

The previous trend line has predicted 18,500 for two years ago,and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Accepted Answer

A) 100. 
B) 200. 
C) 400. 
D) 500. 
E) 800. 
A) 100. 
B) 200. 
C) 400. 
D) 500. 
E) 800.

Question 14

Figure
The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last four years?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800. 
A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800.

Question 15

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Accepted Answer

A) 67. 
B) 68. 
C) 69. 
D) 100. 
E) 115. 
A) 67. 
B) 68. 
C) 69. 
D) 100. 
E) 115.

Question 16

Figure
The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last three years?

Accepted Answer

A) 163. 
B) 180. 
C) 300. 
D) 467. 
E) 510. 
A) 163. 
B) 180. 
C) 300. 
D) 467. 
E) 510.

Question 17

The seasonal factor for any period of a year measures how that period compares to the same period last year.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

A moving-average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the time-series data when more values are included in the average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 19

Figure
An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last four years?

Accepted Answer

A) 22,000. 
B) 20,000. 
C) 18,000. 
D) 15,000. 
E) 12,000. 
A) 22,000. 
B) 20,000. 
C) 18,000. 
D) 15,000. 
E) 12,000.

Question 20

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method,the number of values in the average should be:

Accepted Answer

A) decreased. 
B) increased. 
C) multiplied by a larger $\alpha$ 
D) multiplied by a smaller $\alpha$ 
E) None of the above. 
A) decreased. 
B) increased. 
C) multiplied by a larger $\alpha$ 
D) multiplied by a smaller $\alpha$ 
E) None of the above.

Exam 11: Forecasting

Which of the following are costs of an inaccurate forecast?

Exponential smoothing with trend requires selection of two smoothing constants.

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean square error?

The mean square error is the square of the mean of the absolute deviations.

The primary method for causal forecasting is:

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a last-value forecast?

Figure An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Once accepted by managers,forecasts should not be overridden.

The equation y = 350 - 2.5x is used to predict quarterly demand where x = 0 in the second quarter of last year.Quarterly seasonal factors are Q1 = 1.5,Q2 = 0.8,Q3 = 1.1,and Q4 = 0.6.What is the forecast for the last quarter of this year?

Which of the following would be considered a possible drawback of using executive opinions to develop a forecast?

Judgmental forecasting methods have been developed to interpret statistical data.

The mean absolute deviation is the sum of the absolute value of forecasting errors divided by the number of forecasts.

The previous trend line has predicted 18,500 for two years ago,and 19,700 for last year.What was the mean absolute deviation for these forecasts?

Figure The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last four years?

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Figure The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last three years?

The seasonal factor for any period of a year measures how that period compares to the same period last year.

A moving-average forecast tends to be more responsive to changes in the time-series data when more values are included in the average.

Figure An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using a moving-average forecast based on the last four years?

In order to increase the responsiveness of a forecast made using the moving-average method,the number of values in the average should be:

Introduction

Linear Programming: Basic Concepts

Linear Programming: Formulation and Applications

The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets

What-If Analysis for Linear Programming

Network Optimization Problems

Using Binary Integer Programming to Deal With Yes-Or-No Decisions

Nonlinear Programming

Decision Analysis

Cd Supplement - Decision Analysis

Queueing Models

CD Supplement - Additional Queueing Models

Computer Simulation: Basic Concepts

CD Supplement - the Inverse Transformation Method for Generating Random Observations

Computer Simulation With Crystal Ball

CD - Solution Concepts for Linear Programming

CD - Transportation and Assignment Problems

CD - Pertcpm Models for Project Management

CD - Goal Programming

CD - Inventory Management With Known Demand

CD - Inventory Management With Uncertain Demand

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