Question 1

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) Managerial opinion. 
B) Sales force composite. 
C) Time-series analysis. 
D) The Delphi method. 
E) Consumer market survey. 
A) Managerial opinion. 
B) Sales force composite. 
C) Time-series analysis. 
D) The Delphi method. 
E) Consumer market survey.

Question 2

In exponential smoothing with trend,the forecast consists of:

Accepted Answer

A) an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B) the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
C) the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
D) a moving-average and a trend factor. 
E) None of the above. 
A) an exponentially smoothed forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
B) the old forecast adjusted by a trend factor. 
C) the old forecast and a smoothed trend factor. 
D) a moving-average and a trend factor. 
E) None of the above.

Question 3

Using the latest value in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

Accepted Answer

A) a moving-average forecast. 
B) a last-value forecast. 
C) an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
D) a causal forecast. 
E) None of the above. 
A) a moving-average forecast. 
B) a last-value forecast. 
C) an exponentially smoothed forecast. 
D) a causal forecast. 
E) None of the above.

Question 4

If a time-series has exactly the same distribution for each and every time period,then the averaging forecasting method provides the best estimate of the mean.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

In exponential smoothing,an $\alpha$ of 0.3 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will an $\alpha$ of 0.2.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

Accepted Answer

A) sales force composites. 
B) consumer surveys. 
C) the Delphi method. 
D) time-series analysis. 
E) executive opinions. 
A) sales force composites. 
B) consumer surveys. 
C) the Delphi method. 
D) time-series analysis. 
E) executive opinions.

Question 7

Figure
The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with trend if \9\alpha\) = 0.5 and $\alpha$ = 0.3? Assume the forecast for last year was 21,000 and the forecast for two years ago was 19,000,and that the trend estimate for last years forecast was 1,500.

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800. 
A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800.

Question 8

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean square error?

Accepted Answer

A) 3. 
B) 4. 
C) 12. 
D) 12.5. 
E) 50. 
A) 3. 
B) 4. 
C) 12. 
D) 12.5. 
E) 50.

Question 10

Figure  
-What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

Accepted Answer

A) 58. 
B) 62. 
C) 60. 
D) 61. 
E) None of the above. 
A) 58. 
B) 62. 
C) 60. 
D) 61. 
E) None of the above.

Question 11

A smoothing constant of 0.1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of 0.3 will.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 1. 
B) 2. 
C) 2.5. 
D) 3. 
E) 12. 
A) 1. 
B) 2. 
C) 2.5. 
D) 3. 
E) 12.

Question 13

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 3. 
B) 4. 
C) 5. 
D) 6. 
E) 9. 
A) 3. 
B) 4. 
C) 5. 
D) 6. 
E) 9.

Question 14

Figure
An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = 0.2,if the forecast for last year was 15,000?

Accepted Answer

A) 20,000. 
B) 19,000. 
C) 17,500. 
D) 16,000. 
E) 15,000. 
A) 20,000. 
B) 19,000. 
C) 17,500. 
D) 16,000. 
E) 15,000.

Question 15

The moving-average forecasting method assigns equal weights to each value that is represented by the average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

The Delphi method involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

In exponential smoothing with trend,the forecast consists of:

Using the latest value in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

If a time-series has exactly the same distribution for each and every time period,then the averaging forecasting method provides the best estimate of the mean.

In exponential smoothing,an $\alpha$ of 0.3 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will an $\alpha$ of 0.2.

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience.

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean square error?

Figure -What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

A smoothing constant of 0.1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of 0.3 will.

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

The moving-average forecasting method assigns equal weights to each value that is represented by the average.

The Delphi method involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Introduction

Linear Programming: Basic Concepts

Linear Programming: Formulation and Applications

The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets

What-If Analysis for Linear Programming

Network Optimization Problems

Using Binary Integer Programming to Deal With Yes-Or-No Decisions

Nonlinear Programming

Decision Analysis

Cd Supplement - Decision Analysis

Queueing Models

CD Supplement - Additional Queueing Models

Computer Simulation: Basic Concepts

CD Supplement - the Inverse Transformation Method for Generating Random Observations

Computer Simulation With Crystal Ball

CD - Solution Concepts for Linear Programming

CD - Transportation and Assignment Problems

CD - Pertcpm Models for Project Management

CD - Goal Programming

CD - Inventory Management With Known Demand

CD - Inventory Management With Uncertain Demand

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting

Which of the following is not a type of judgmental forecasting?

In exponential smoothing with trend,the forecast consists of:

Using the latest value in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

If a time-series has exactly the same distribution for each and every time period,then the averaging forecasting method provides the best estimate of the mean.

In exponential smoothing,an α\alphaα of 0.3 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will an α\alphaα of 0.2.

The forecasting method which uses anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:

An advantage of the exponential smoothing forecasting method is that more recent experience is given more weight than less recent experience.

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean square error?

Figure -What is the last-value forecast for the next period?

A smoothing constant of 0.1 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of 0.3 will.

Given forecast errors of 5,0,-4,and 3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Given forecast errors of 4,8,and -3,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Figure An operation analyst is forecasting this year's demand for one of his company's products based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with α\alphaα = 0.2,if the forecast for last year was 15,000?

The moving-average forecasting method assigns equal weights to each value that is represented by the average.

The Delphi method involves the use of a series of questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast.

Introduction

Linear Programming: Basic Concepts

Linear Programming: Formulation and Applications

The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets

What-If Analysis for Linear Programming

Network Optimization Problems

Using Binary Integer Programming to Deal With Yes-Or-No Decisions

Nonlinear Programming

Decision Analysis

Cd Supplement - Decision Analysis

Queueing Models

CD Supplement - Additional Queueing Models

Computer Simulation: Basic Concepts

CD Supplement - the Inverse Transformation Method for Generating Random Observations

Computer Simulation With Crystal Ball

CD - Solution Concepts for Linear Programming

CD - Transportation and Assignment Problems

CD - Pertcpm Models for Project Management

CD - Goal Programming

CD - Inventory Management With Known Demand

CD - Inventory Management With Uncertain Demand

Filters

In exponential smoothing,an $\alpha$ of 0.3 will cause a forecast to react more quickly to a large error than will an $\alpha$ of 0.2.