Question 1

The goal of time-series forecasting methods is to estimate the mean of the underlying probability distribution of the next value of the time-series as closely as possible.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 2

Figure
The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800. 
A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800.

Question 3

Figure
The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A) 163. 
B) 180. 
C) 300. 
D) 467. 
E) 510. 
A) 163. 
B) 180. 
C) 300. 
D) 467. 
E) 510.

Question 4

In business,forecasts are the basis for:

Accepted Answer

A) sales planning. 
B) inventory planning. 
C) production planning. 
D) budgeting. 
E) All of the above. 
A) sales planning. 
B) inventory planning. 
C) production planning. 
D) budgeting. 
E) All of the above.

Question 5

Given an actual latest demand of 59,a previous forecast of 64,and $\alpha$ = 0.3,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Accepted Answer

A) 36.9. 
B) 57.5. 
C) 60.5. 
D) 62.5. 
E) 65.5. 
A) 36.9. 
B) 57.5. 
C) 60.5. 
D) 62.5. 
E) 65.5.

Question 6

The sales force composite method is a top-down approach to forecasting.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Given forecast errors of -5,-10,and 15,what is the mean absolute deviation?

Accepted Answer

A) 0. 
B) 5. 
C) 10. 
D) 30. 
E) None of the above. 
A) 0. 
B) 5. 
C) 10. 
D) 30. 
E) None of the above.

Question 8

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Accepted Answer

A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) All of the above. 
A) estimate the trend line. 
B) eliminate forecast errors. 
C) measure forecast accuracy. 
D) seasonally adjust the forecast. 
E) All of the above.

Question 9

Figure
The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = 0.5,if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Accepted Answer

A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800. 
A) 18,750. 
B) 19,500. 
C) 21,000. 
D) 22,650. 
E) 22,800.

Question 10

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Accepted Answer

A) 17. 
B) 18. 
C) 19. 
D) 20. 
E) 18.5. 
A) 17. 
B) 18. 
C) 19. 
D) 20. 
E) 18.5.

Question 11

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

Accepted Answer

A) The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs. 
B) The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions. 
C) The sales staff is often aware of customer's future plans. 
D) Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas. 
E) None of the above. 
A) The sales staff is least affected by changing customer needs. 
B) The sales force can easily distinguish between customer desires and probable actions. 
C) The sales staff is often aware of customer's future plans. 
D) Salespeople are least likely to be biased by sales quotas. 
E) None of the above.

Question 12

The mean absolute deviation is more sensitive to large deviations than the mean square error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 13

Forecasts can help a manager to:

Accepted Answer

A) anticipate the future. 
B) develop strategies. 
C) make staffing decisions. 
D) All of the above. 
E) None of the above. 
A) anticipate the future. 
B) develop strategies. 
C) make staffing decisions. 
D) All of the above. 
E) None of the above.

Question 14

Figure
Professor Z needs to allocate time among several tasks next week to include time for students' appointments.Thus,he needs to forecast the number of students who will seek appointments.He has gathered the following data:  
-What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = 0.2,if the forecast for two weeks ago was 90?

Accepted Answer

A) 49. 
B) 50. 
C) 52. 
D) 65. 
E) 78. 
A) 49. 
B) 50. 
C) 52. 
D) 65. 
E) 78.

Question 15

Figure  
-What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods.

Accepted Answer

A) 58. 
B) 62. 
C) 60. 
D) 61. 
E) None of the above. 
A) 58. 
B) 62. 
C) 60. 
D) 61. 
E) None of the above.

Question 16

The last-value forecasting method requires a linear trend line.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

The last-value forecasting method:

Accepted Answer

A) is quick and easy to prepare. 
B) is easy for users to understand. 
C) ignores all values except one. 
D) All of the above. 
E) None of the above. 
A) is quick and easy to prepare. 
B) is easy for users to understand. 
C) ignores all values except one. 
D) All of the above. 
E) None of the above.

Question 18

Given an actual latest demand of 105,a previous forecast of 97,and $\alpha$ = 0.4,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Accepted Answer

A) 80.8. 
B) 93.8. 
C) 100.2. 
D) 101.8. 
E) 108.2. 
A) 80.8. 
B) 93.8. 
C) 100.2. 
D) 101.8. 
E) 108.2.

Question 19

Which of the following possible values of $\alpha$ would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Accepted Answer

A) 0. 
B) 0.01. 
C) 0.05. 
D) 0.1. 
E) 0.15. 
A) 0. 
B) 0.01. 
C) 0.05. 
D) 0.1. 
E) 0.15.

Question 20

Forecasts are rarely perfect.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

The goal of time-series forecasting methods is to estimate the mean of the underlying probability distribution of the next value of the time-series as closely as possible.

Figure The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Figure The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

In business,forecasts are the basis for:

Given an actual latest demand of 59,a previous forecast of 64,and $\alpha$ = 0.3,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

The sales force composite method is a top-down approach to forecasting.

Given forecast errors of -5,-10,and 15,what is the mean absolute deviation?

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

The mean absolute deviation is more sensitive to large deviations than the mean square error.

Forecasts can help a manager to:

Figure -What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods.

The last-value forecasting method requires a linear trend line.

The last-value forecasting method:

Given an actual latest demand of 105,a previous forecast of 97,and $\alpha$ = 0.4,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Which of the following possible values of $\alpha$ would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Forecasts are rarely perfect.

Introduction

Linear Programming: Basic Concepts

Linear Programming: Formulation and Applications

The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets

What-If Analysis for Linear Programming

Network Optimization Problems

Using Binary Integer Programming to Deal With Yes-Or-No Decisions

Nonlinear Programming

Decision Analysis

Cd Supplement - Decision Analysis

Queueing Models

CD Supplement - Additional Queueing Models

Computer Simulation: Basic Concepts

CD Supplement - the Inverse Transformation Method for Generating Random Observations

Computer Simulation With Crystal Ball

CD - Solution Concepts for Linear Programming

CD - Transportation and Assignment Problems

CD - Pertcpm Models for Project Management

CD - Goal Programming

CD - Inventory Management With Known Demand

CD - Inventory Management With Uncertain Demand

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting

The goal of time-series forecasting methods is to estimate the mean of the underlying probability distribution of the next value of the time-series as closely as possible.

Figure The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

Figure The business analyst for Ace Business Machines,Inc.wants to forecast this year's demand for manual typewriters based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using the last-value forecasting method?

In business,forecasts are the basis for:

Given an actual latest demand of 59,a previous forecast of 64,and α\alphaα = 0.3,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

The sales force composite method is a top-down approach to forecasting.

Given forecast errors of -5,-10,and 15,what is the mean absolute deviation?

The mean absolute deviation is used to:

Figure The president of State University wants to forecast student enrollment for this academic year based on the following historical data: -What is the forecast for this year using exponential smoothing with α\alphaα = 0.5,if the forecast for two years ago was 16,000?

Given the following historical data,what is the moving-average forecast for period 6 based on the last three periods?

Which of the following would be an advantage of using a sales force composite to develop a demand forecast?

The mean absolute deviation is more sensitive to large deviations than the mean square error.

Forecasts can help a manager to:

Figure -What is the moving-average forecast for the next period based on the last three periods.

The last-value forecasting method requires a linear trend line.

The last-value forecasting method:

Given an actual latest demand of 105,a previous forecast of 97,and α\alphaα = 0.4,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Which of the following possible values of α\alphaα would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?

Forecasts are rarely perfect.

Introduction

Linear Programming: Basic Concepts

Linear Programming: Formulation and Applications

The Art of Modeling With Spreadsheets

What-If Analysis for Linear Programming

Network Optimization Problems

Using Binary Integer Programming to Deal With Yes-Or-No Decisions

Nonlinear Programming

Decision Analysis

Cd Supplement - Decision Analysis

Queueing Models

CD Supplement - Additional Queueing Models

Computer Simulation: Basic Concepts

CD Supplement - the Inverse Transformation Method for Generating Random Observations

Computer Simulation With Crystal Ball

CD - Solution Concepts for Linear Programming

CD - Transportation and Assignment Problems

CD - Pertcpm Models for Project Management

CD - Goal Programming

CD - Inventory Management With Known Demand

CD - Inventory Management With Uncertain Demand

Filters

Given an actual latest demand of 59,a previous forecast of 64,and $\alpha$ = 0.3,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Given an actual latest demand of 105,a previous forecast of 97,and $\alpha$ = 0.4,what would be the forecast for the next period using the exponential smoothing method?

Which of the following possible values of $\alpha$ would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors?