Question 1

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Accepted Answer

A) When historic data are unreliable 
B) When it is impossible to obtain historic data 
C) For short-range,repetitive decisions 
D) When making major,costly decisions,such as facilities location 
A) When historic data are unreliable 
B) When it is impossible to obtain historic data 
C) For short-range,repetitive decisions 
D) When making major,costly decisions,such as facilities location C

Question 2

Given the following weekly demand figures,what is the MAD at the end of week 5? $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | } 
\hline \text { Week } & \text { Demand } & \text { Forecast } \
\hline 1 & 100 & 120 \
\hline 2 & 120 & 130 \
\hline 3 & 110 & 120 \
\hline 4 & 130 & 125 \
\hline 5 & 160 & 145 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) 10.8 
B) 11.8 
C) 12.0 
D) 13.0 
A) 10.8 
B) 11.8 
C) 12.0 
D) 13.0 C

Question 3

Describe each of the five demand components in a time-series (of past demand data).

Accepted Answer

Level is the relatively constant average demand during a time interval. Trend is an increase or decrease in the average demand over time. Seasonality is a regularly repeated pattern of increasing or decreasing demand,such as yearly,each semester,weekly,or daily. Cycle is increasing or decreasing demand over long time periods,often many years.These changes can be due to changes in the overall economy or changes in product or service life cycles. Random error reflects short-term fluctuations in demand that cannot be forecast.

Question 4

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 6

The Box-Jenkins method requires 12 periods of past data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

_____ models are usually more accurate than ______ models for medium-to-long-range forecasts.

Accepted Answer

A) Time-series,causal 
B) Causal,time-series 
C) Time-series,qualitative 
D) Qualitative,time-series 
A) Time-series,causal 
B) Causal,time-series 
C) Time-series,qualitative 
D) Qualitative,time-series

Question 8

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

Accepted Answer

A) Aggregate planning 
B) Scheduling 
C) Process design 
D) Inventory management 
A) Aggregate planning 
B) Scheduling 
C) Process design 
D) Inventory management

Question 9

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique?

Accepted Answer

A) Consumer survey 
B) Individual opinions 
C) Rounds of anonymous data collection 
D) Test markets 
A) Consumer survey 
B) Individual opinions 
C) Rounds of anonymous data collection 
D) Test markets

Question 10

Using exponential smoothing,if we want forecasts to be very responsive to recent demand,the value of alpha should be:

Accepted Answer

A) Large 
B) Moderate 
C) Small 
D) The value of alpha does not matter. 
A) Large 
B) Moderate 
C) Small 
D) The value of alpha does not matter.

Question 11

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120
Forecast = 180
MAD15 = 50
Alpha = 0.3

Accepted Answer

A) 77 
B) 53 
C) 17 
D) 43 
A) 77 
B) 53 
C) 17 
D) 43

Question 12

The Grand Bakery produces 60 special sourdough rolls every day.Any rolls that are not sold each day are given to the employees.They have collected sales data from the past week: $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Day } & \text { Rolls sold } \
\hline 1 & 50 \
\hline 2 & 50 \
\hline 3 & 48 \
\hline 4 & 60 \
\hline 5 & 53 \
\hline 6 & 60 \
\hline
\end{array}$$ What is the value of F6 if they use a 3-day weighted moving average with W1 = 0.6,W2 = 0.2,and W3 = 0.2?

Accepted Answer

A) 51.4 
B) 53.4 
C) 58.6 
D) None of the above 
A) 51.4 
B) 53.4 
C) 58.6 
D) None of the above

Question 13

Which of the following is NOT true about Collaborative Planning,Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)?

Accepted Answer

A) The basic idea is to share forecasting information with the suppliers and customers in the supply chain. 
B) It is best applied to a few customers representing the bulk of demand. 
C) It creates visibility in the supply chain minimizing the occurrence of the bullwhip in supply chains. 
D) It requires advanced forecasting tools such as Box-Jenkins to improve the forecasting accuracy. 
A) The basic idea is to share forecasting information with the suppliers and customers in the supply chain. 
B) It is best applied to a few customers representing the bulk of demand. 
C) It creates visibility in the supply chain minimizing the occurrence of the bullwhip in supply chains. 
D) It requires advanced forecasting tools such as Box-Jenkins to improve the forecasting accuracy.

Question 14

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) The basic strategy is to identify the magnitude and form of each component based on available past data. 
B) It is used to make detailed analyses of past demand patterns over time and to project these patterns forward into the future. 
C) Demand can be divided into components such as average level,trend,seasonality,cycle and error. 
D) All of the above 
A) The basic strategy is to identify the magnitude and form of each component based on available past data. 
B) It is used to make detailed analyses of past demand patterns over time and to project these patterns forward into the future. 
C) Demand can be divided into components such as average level,trend,seasonality,cycle and error. 
D) All of the above

Question 15

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

Accepted Answer

A) A forecast 
B) A performance measure 
C) A goal 
D) A production plan 
A) A forecast 
B) A performance measure 
C) A goal 
D) A production plan

Question 16

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

Accepted Answer

A) Regression 
B) Econometric model 
C) Input-output model 
D) Simulation model 
A) Regression 
B) Econometric model 
C) Input-output model 
D) Simulation model

Question 17

A time-series forecast model includes only a level (average)term,representing past average demand.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

The difference between actual demand and the forecast is:

Accepted Answer

A) Forecast error 
B) Mean absolute percentage error 
C) Absolute deviation of forecast error 
D) Mean absolute deviation of forecast error 
A) Forecast error 
B) Mean absolute percentage error 
C) Absolute deviation of forecast error 
D) Mean absolute deviation of forecast error

Question 19

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F5 = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

Accepted Answer

A) 33 
B) 31.7 
C) 30 
D) 20 
A) 33 
B) 31.7 
C) 30 
D) 20

Question 20

Using the data from question 11,calculate the forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

Accepted Answer

A) 60 
B) 43.25 
C) 57.75 
D) 55.25 
A) 60 
B) 43.25 
C) 57.75 
D) 55.25

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Given the following weekly demand figures,what is the MAD at the end of week 5? Week Demand Forecast 1 100 120 2 120 130 3 110 120 4 130 125 5 160 145

Describe each of the five demand components in a time-series (of past demand data).

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

The Box-Jenkins method requires 12 periods of past data.

_ models are usually more accurate than __ models for medium-to-long-range forecasts.

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique?

Using exponential smoothing,if we want forecasts to be very responsive to recent demand,the value of alpha should be:

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD₁₅ = 50 Alpha = 0.3

Which of the following is NOT true about Collaborative Planning,Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)?

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

A time-series forecast model includes only a level (average)term,representing past average demand.

The difference between actual demand and the forecast is:

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F₅ = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

Using the data from question 11,calculate the forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

The Operations Function

Operations and Supply Chain Strategy

Product Design

Process Selection

Service Delivery System Design

Process-Flow Analysis

Lean Thinking and Lean Systems

Managing Quality

Quality Control and Improvement

Supply Chain Management

Capacity Planning

Scheduling Operations

Project Planning and Scheduling

Independent Demand Inventory

Materials Requirements Planning and ERP

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Given the following weekly demand figures,what is the MAD at the end of week 5? Week Demand Forecast 1 100 120 2 120 130 3 110 120 4 130 125 5 160 145

Describe each of the five demand components in a time-series (of past demand data).

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

The Box-Jenkins method requires 12 periods of past data.

_____ models are usually more accurate than ______ models for medium-to-long-range forecasts.

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

Which phrase most closely describes the Delphi forecasting technique?

Using exponential smoothing,if we want forecasts to be very responsive to recent demand,the value of alpha should be:

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD15 = 50 Alpha = 0.3

Which of the following is NOT true about Collaborative Planning,Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR)?

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

A time-series forecast model includes only a level (average)term,representing past average demand.

The difference between actual demand and the forecast is:

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F5 = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

Using the data from question 11,calculate the forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

The Operations Function

Operations and Supply Chain Strategy

Product Design

Process Selection

Service Delivery System Design

Process-Flow Analysis

Lean Thinking and Lean Systems

Managing Quality

Quality Control and Improvement

Supply Chain Management

Capacity Planning

Scheduling Operations

Project Planning and Scheduling

Independent Demand Inventory

Materials Requirements Planning and ERP

Filters

_ models are usually more accurate than __ models for medium-to-long-range forecasts.

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD₁₅ = 50 Alpha = 0.3

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F₅ = 33 and alpha = 0.0)