Question 1

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  False

Question 2

Consider the sales for six consecutive weeks for Sam's Strawberries. The sales are in "flats" sold.   
a.Using a 3-period moving average, forecast the sales for weeks four through six.
b.Use exponential smoothing with $\alpha$ = .3 to forecast sales for weeks four through six.
c.Use linear regression (time series) to develop a prediction equation that will forecast sales. Then use that prediction equation to get forecasts for weeks four through six.
d.Use MAD to pick the best forecasting method of A through C.

Accepted Answer

a.Week 4:Week 4: (16 + 18 + 14)/3 = 16.0 Week 5:Week 5: (18 + 14 + 10)/3 = 14.0 Week 6:Week 6: (14 + 10 + 20)/3 = 14.7 b.F_t = F_t₁+ $\alpha$(A_t1-F_t1) F₂ = 10 + .3(16 -10) = 11.8 F₃ = 11.8 + .3(18 - 11.8) = 13.7 F₄ = 13.7 + .3(14 - 13.7) = 13.8 F₅ = 13.8 + .3(10 - 13.8) = 12.7 F₆ = 12.7 + .3(20 - 12.7) = 14.9 c. MAD MA:19.3/3 = 6.43 MAD ES:18.2/3 = 6.07 MAD LR:12.1/3 = 4.03 Linear regression has the lowest MAD.

Question 3

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed. Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

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Question 3

Correct Answer:

Verified

MAD (Forecast 1) = 16/6 = 2.67
MAD (Forecast 2) = 17/6 = 2.83
Model 1 is the better model.

Accepted Answer

MAD (Forecast 1) = 16/6 = 2.67
MAD (Forecast 2) = 17/6 = 2.83
Model 1 is the better model.

Question 4

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ($\alpha$) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

Accepted Answer

@#LAT-DLM&= 2/(k + 1

Question 5

Define regression analysis and explain how it is an approach to forecasting.

Accepted Answer

Regression Analysis is a method for buil

Question 6

The manager of a gas station along an interstate highway has observed that gasoline sales generally increase each week over the summer months as more families travel by car on vacations. He also believes that sales are sensitive to fluctuations in the price of gasoline. He developed the following regression model:
Sales = 59407 + 509 (Week) -16463 (Price/gallon)
a.Interpret the coefficients of the independent variables in this model.
b.What is the sales forecast for the 11th week of the summer if the price per gallon is estimated to be $3.00?

Accepted Answer

a.Sales increase on average by 509 gallo

Question 7

For single exponential smoothing,

Accepted Answer

A) Large values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
B) Small values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
C) Very volatile time series with substantial random variability should use a large value for alpha ($\alpha$) 
D) Very stable time series with little random variability should use small values for alpha ($\alpha$) 
A) Large values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
B) Small values of alpha ($\alpha$) place more emphasis on recent data 
C) Very volatile time series with substantial random variability should use a large value for alpha ($\alpha$) 
D) Very stable time series with little random variability should use small values for alpha ($\alpha$)

Question 8

MAD, MSE, and MAPE forecast error metrics generally give similar numerical results so it doesn't matter which one is used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Using the data shown below, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown.

Accepted Answer

Mean square error = [(180 -170)² + (200 -

Question 10

State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as shown below:   
a.Using a 3-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?
b.Using a 5-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?

Accepted Answer

a.F(April, 1) = (211 + 196 + 2

Question 11

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks:   What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

Accepted Answer

F(Friday)

Question 12

Explain the difference between statistical forecasting and judgment forecasting.

Accepted Answer

Statistical forecasting is based on the

Question 13

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are:  
 Forecast sales for July using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.40. Assume that the forecast for May was 36.25.

Accepted Answer

F_JUN = 36.25 + 0.4(51 -

Question 14

What is a time series, and what types of characteristics typically make up time series?

Accepted Answer

A time series is a set of observations m

Question 15

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

An R2 of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

Explain how forecasting is used at different levels of an organization.

Accepted Answer

Top managers need long-range forecasts e

Question 19

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Accepted Answer

A) Time bucket 
B) Trend 
C) Cyclical 
D) Random variation 
A) Time bucket 
B) Trend 
C) Cyclical 
D) Random variation

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed. Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( $\alpha$ ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

Define regression analysis and explain how it is an approach to forecasting.

For single exponential smoothing,

MAD, MSE, and MAPE forecast error metrics generally give similar numerical results so it doesn't matter which one is used.

Using the data shown below, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown.

State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as shown below: a.Using a 3-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April? b.Using a 5-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks: What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

Explain the difference between statistical forecasting and judgment forecasting.

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are: Forecast sales for July using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.40. Assume that the forecast for May was 36.25.

What is a time series, and what types of characteristics typically make up time series?

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

An R² of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Explain how forecasting is used at different levels of an organization.

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

Judgmental forecasting should only be used if no historical data are available.

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are shown below along with the results of two different forecasting models that were developed. Which is the better forecasting model, based on the MAD criterion?

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( α\alphaα ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

Define regression analysis and explain how it is an approach to forecasting.

For single exponential smoothing,

MAD, MSE, and MAPE forecast error metrics generally give similar numerical results so it doesn't matter which one is used.

Using the data shown below, compute the mean square error, mean absolute deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for the forecasts shown.

State Division of Motor Vehicles (DMV) statistics show the rate of new driver's license applications to be as shown below: a.Using a 3-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April? b.Using a 5-week moving average, what is the forecast for the first week in April?

The Espresso Cart has had the following pattern of espresso sales over the last two weeks: What is the forecast for Friday's sales using a three-day moving average?

Explain the difference between statistical forecasting and judgment forecasting.

Ed Rogers owns an appliance store. Sales data on a particular model of a DVD player for the past six months are: Forecast sales for July using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.40. Assume that the forecast for May was 36.25.

What is a time series, and what types of characteristics typically make up time series?

Single exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant value of .25 puts the same weight on the most recent actual demand as a 4-period moving average.

The Delphi method is a forecasting approach that is based on expert opinion.

An R2 of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.

Explain how forecasting is used at different levels of an organization.

Exponential smoothing models "never forget" past data as long as the smoothing constant is strictly between 0 and 1. In contrast, moving average methods "completely forget" all data older than k periods in the past.

Which of the following is not one of the five characteristics of a time series?

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Filters

A 7-month simple moving average would approximately equate with what alpha ( $\alpha$ ) factor for simple exponential smoothing?

An R² of 0.70 mean 30% of the variability in the dependent variable was explained by the independent variable.