Question 1

Regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time are called ____.

Accepted Answer

A) Trends 
B) Seasonal patterns 
C) Cyclical patterns 
D) Irregular variation 
A) Trends 
B) Seasonal patterns 
C) Cyclical patterns 
D) Irregular variation

Question 2

Sales of a new CD at a store for the last 4 weeks are shown below.   
a.Find a 3 period moving average forecast for the next week.
b.Find a 4 period moving average forecast for the next week.
c.Actual sales for week 5 were 105 units. What would be the 3- and 4-period moving average forecasts for week 6?

Accepted Answer

a.(105 + 125 + 118)/3 = 116
b.

Question 3

Regression models are often used in forecasting to incorporate causal variables that may influence a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 4

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Accepted Answer

A) Use quantitative rather than qualitative methods. 
B) Combine forecasts from approaches that are similar. 
C) Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing. 
D) Use multiple measures of forecast accuracy. 
A) Use quantitative rather than qualitative methods. 
B) Combine forecasts from approaches that are similar. 
C) Ask experts to justify their forecasts in writing. 
D) Use multiple measures of forecast accuracy.

Question 5

Regression analysis

Accepted Answer

A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable 
A) Is limited to one dependent and one independent variable 
B) Is best with linear relationships 
C) Maximizes the sum of the squared deviations between the actual time series value and the estimated values of the dependent variable 
D) Can be used with time as the independent variable

Question 6

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 7

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Valentine's Day is the best day of the year for selling roses at River Road Florist. Dozens of roses sold on Valentine's Day over six years are as follows:   
a.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 3-period moving average?
b.What is the forecast for Valentine's Day in 2011 using a 5-period moving average?
c.What is the MAD for years 2008-2010 using a 3-period moving average?
d.What is the tracking signal for years 2008-2010 using a 3-period moving average?

Accepted Answer

a.F(2011) = (114 + 104 + 100)/3 = 106.00

Question 10

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

Accepted Answer

Forecast error is the difference between

Question 11

The following data represents the home mortgage loan interest rates at a local bank over an eight-month period:   
a.What is the forecast for month 8 using a moving average model with an AP = 4?
b.What is the forecast for month 9 using a moving average model with an AP = 6?

Accepted Answer

a.F(Day 8) = (8.8 + 8.4 + 8.6

Question 12

All of the following are important in choosing a forecasting method except

Accepted Answer

A) Smoothing constant ($\alpha$) 
B) Time span for which forecast is made 
C) Data requirements 
D) Quantitative skills needed 
A) Smoothing constant ($\alpha$) 
B) Time span for which forecast is made 
C) Data requirements 
D) Quantitative skills needed

Question 13

Based on the information shown below, develop forecasts for June using both a 2-period moving average model and an exponential smoothing model with $\alpha$ = 0.10. For the exponential smoothing model, assume the forecast for February was 800.

Accepted Answer

Moving average model:F_JUNE = (975 + 950)/2 =

Question 14

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 15

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

Statistical forecasting is based upon the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 18

A moving average model works best when ____ in the time series.

Accepted Answer

A) Only irregular variation is present 
B) Only a trend is present 
C) There is no trend, seasonal, or cyclical pattern 
D) Trend, seasonal, and cyclical patterns all exist 
A) Only irregular variation is present 
B) Only a trend is present 
C) There is no trend, seasonal, or cyclical pattern 
D) Trend, seasonal, and cyclical patterns all exist

Question 19

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Community General Hospital finds itself treating many bicycle accident victims. Data from the last seven 24-hour periods is shown below:   
a.What is the forecast for day 4 using a moving average model with AP = 3?
b.With an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data, what is the exponentially smoothed forecast for day 8?
c.What is the MAD for days 6 to 8 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?
d.What is the tracking signal for days 6 to 8 for an exponentially smoothed forecasting model with an alpha value of .5 and a starting forecast in day 4 equal to the actual data?

Accepted Answer

a.F(Day 4) = (4 + 8 + 6)/3 = 6
b.F(Day 5

Regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time are called ____.

Regression models are often used in forecasting to incorporate causal variables that may influence a time series.

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Regression analysis

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

The following data represents the home mortgage loan interest rates at a local bank over an eight-month period: a.What is the forecast for month 8 using a moving average model with an AP = 4? b.What is the forecast for month 9 using a moving average model with an AP = 6?

All of the following are important in choosing a forecasting method except

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Statistical forecasting is based upon the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

A moving average model works best when ____ in the time series.

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting and Demand Planning

Regular patterns in a data series that take place over long periods of time are called ____.

Regression models are often used in forecasting to incorporate causal variables that may influence a time series.

A group of international experts published a set of principles of forecasting that includes all of the following except

Regression analysis

Irregular variation and random variation both refer to unexplainable deviation of a time series from a predictable pattern.

Better operational decisions can be made by integrating forecasting with value chain and capacity management systems.

A single moving average is most appropriate for data with identifiable trends.

Define forecast error and describe ways that it is measured.

The following data represents the home mortgage loan interest rates at a local bank over an eight-month period: a.What is the forecast for month 8 using a moving average model with an AP = 4? b.What is the forecast for month 9 using a moving average model with an AP = 6?

All of the following are important in choosing a forecasting method except

Based on the information shown below, develop forecasts for June using both a 2-period moving average model and an exponential smoothing model with α\alphaα = 0.10. For the exponential smoothing model, assume the forecast for February was 800.

An exponential smoothing model can be found easily by applying the Excel Add Trendline option to a time series.

A major difference between MSE and MAD is that MAD is influenced much more by large forecast errors than by small errors.

Statistical forecasting is based upon the assumption that the future will be an extrapolation of the past.

Trends are characterized by repeatable periods of ups and downs over short periods of time.

A moving average model works best when ____ in the time series.

A long-range forecast typically covers a planning horizon of 3 to 12 months.

Goods, Services, and Operations Management

Value Chains

Measuring Performance in Operations

Operations Strategy

Technology and Operations Management

Goods and Service Design

Process Selection, Design, and Analysis

Facility and Work Design

Supply Chain Design

Capacity Management

Managing Inventories

Resource Management

Operations Scheduling and Sequencing

Quality Management

Quality Control and Spc

Lean Operating Systems

Project Management

Filters