A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Demand } \\ \hline \text { Tanuary } & 111 \\ \hline \text { February } & 127 \\ \hline \text { March } & 146 \\ \hline \text { April } & 159 \\ \hline \text { May } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fune } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fuly } & 178 \\ \hline \text { August } & 182 \\ \hline \text { September } & 191 \\ \hline \text { October } & 208 \\ \hline \text { November } & 223 \\ \hline \text { December } & 228 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -What is the forecast for July if the service uses a simple moving average of three periods?

A) 169 B) 163 C) 157 D) 178 A) 169 B) 163 C) 157 D) 178

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Demand } \\ \hline \text { Tanuary } & 111 \\ \hline \text { February } & 127 \\ \hline \text { March } & 146 \\ \hline \text { April } & 159 \\ \hline \text { May } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fune } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fuly } & 178 \\ \hline \text { August } & 182 \\ \hline \text { September } & 191 \\ \hline \text { October } & 208 \\ \hline \text { November } & 223 \\ \hline \text { December } & 228 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -What is the forecast for August if a regression equation is used to model this data?

A) 188.3 B) 179.9 C) 180.6 D) 175.7 A) 188.3 B) 179.9 C) 180.6 D) 175.7

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Demand } \\ \hline \text { Tanuary } & 111 \\ \hline \text { February } & 127 \\ \hline \text { March } & 146 \\ \hline \text { April } & 159 \\ \hline \text { May } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fune } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fuly } & 178 \\ \hline \text { August } & 182 \\ \hline \text { September } & 191 \\ \hline \text { October } & 208 \\ \hline \text { November } & 223 \\ \hline \text { December } & 228 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -What is the forecast for August if the forecast for June was 164 and the service uses exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.8?

A) 164.80 B) 188.93 C) 180.67 D) 175.36 A) 164.80 B) 188.93 C) 180.67 D) 175.36

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: \[\begin{array} { | l | c | } \hline { \text { Month } } & \text { Demand } \\ \hline \text { Tanuary } & 111 \\ \hline \text { February } & 127 \\ \hline \text { March } & 146 \\ \hline \text { April } & 159 \\ \hline \text { May } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fune } & 165 \\ \hline \text { fuly } & 178 \\ \hline \text { August } & 182 \\ \hline \text { September } & 191 \\ \hline \text { October } & 208 \\ \hline \text { November } & 223 \\ \hline \text { December } & 228 \\ \hline \end{array}\] -What is the forecast for March if an adjusted exponential smoothing model is used with ?=0.8 and ?=0.7? The unadjusted forecast for January is 123.5.

A) 135.44 B) 138.53 C) 129.76 D) 144.34 A) 135.44 B) 138.53 C) 129.76 D) 144.34

Exam 9: Forecasting

As yet another earthquake rattled her china cabinet, the data scientist decided to test whether hydraulic fracturing (where water is injected into the Earth)truly was predictive of the number of earthquakes in the region. What is the slope of the regression equation based on the data? Injections Earthquakes 137 682 331 833 360 905 442 1008 478 1482 529 1742

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 61

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: Month Demand Tanuary 111 February 127 March 146 April 159 May 165 fune 165 fuly 178 August 182 September 191 October 208 November 223 December 228 -What is the forecast for July if the service uses a simple moving average of three periods?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 62

A long-term movement up or down in a time series is called:

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 63

When there is a significant upward or downward trend in the data, the two of the best forecasting models to use are adjusted exponential smoothing and linear regression.

(True/False)

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Question 64

________ is unpredictable movement from one time period to the next.

(Short Answer)

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Question 65

What distinguishes collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)systems from traditional planning approaches is the emphasis on forecasting.

(True/False)

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Question 66

A(n)________ forecasting model bases all forecasts on past actual values all the way back to the first period.

(Short Answer)

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Question 67

In order to indicate ________ in a forecast model, you should use the mean forecast error approach rather than the mean absolute deviation approach.

(Short Answer)

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Question 68

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed (layer pellets and scratch), water, and the output of his laying hens. For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced. After running a multiple regression model, he obtains the following report. What is the best interpretation of these statistics? Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.993633 R Square 0.987307 Adjusted R Square 0.98096 Standard Error 0.213764 Observations 10

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 69

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: Month Demand Tanuary 111 February 127 March 146 April 159 May 165 fune 165 fuly 178 August 182 September 191 October 208 November 223 December 228 -What is the forecast for August if a regression equation is used to model this data?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 70

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: Month Demand Tanuary 111 February 127 March 146 April 159 May 165 fune 165 fuly 178 August 182 September 191 October 208 November 223 December 228 -What is the forecast for August if the forecast for June was 164 and the service uses exponential smoothing with an alpha of 0.8?

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 71

What is a collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment system and how might it benefit those who choose to use it?

(Essay)

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Question 72

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed (layer pellets and scratch), water, and the output of his laying hens. For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced. After running a multiple regression model, he obtains the following report. What is the best interpretation of these statistics? Coefficients Std Error t Stat P -value Intercept 1.256 1.249 1.006 0.353 Scratch 0.185 0.032 5.714 0.001 Layer Pellets 0.295 0.026 11.539 0.000 Water 0.149 0.041 3.587 0.012

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 73

A poultry farmer that dabbles in statistics is interested in exploring the relationship between two types of feed (layer pellets and scratch), water, and the output of his laying hens. For ten days he records the number of ounces of layer pellets and scratch the hens consume and the number of fluid ounces of water and tracks the number of eggs that are produced. What is his regression equation based on the data? Scratch Layer Pellets Water Eggs 48 29 36 24 44 27 34 22 41 22 31 20 42 21 32 20 48 23 34 22 44 28 34 23 42 22 37 21 41 28 33 22 42 22 31 20 47 29 37 24

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 74

Develop forecasts for periods 7 through 10 for the demand data in the table using a three period moving average, a weighted moving average using 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1, and exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.7. Use a 6^th period forecast of 135 as the starting point for the exponential smoothing technique. Period Actual MA n=3 WMA Exp. Smoothing 1 64 2 84 3 91 4 97 5 115 6 135 7 137 8 144 9 153 10 171

(Essay)

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Question 75

The chief meteorologist quit in a huff one afternoon and the station manager turned to a demented walrus to prepare the forecast for the following nine days during sweeps week. The walrus was a ratings hit, but his forecasts, displayed in the table below, were not entirely accurate. Calculate MAD, MAPE and a tracking signal for the forecasts. Period Actual Forecast 1 26 12 2 7 23 3 12 4 4 20 19 5 27 22 6 14 8 7 10 28 8 27 10 9 27 26

(Essay)

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Question 76

A counseling service records the number of calls to their hotline for the last year. use this table to answer the following questions: Month Demand Tanuary 111 February 127 March 146 April 159 May 165 fune 165 fuly 178 August 182 September 191 October 208 November 223 December 228 -What is the forecast for March if an adjusted exponential smoothing model is used with ?=0.8 and ?=0.7? The unadjusted forecast for January is 123.5.

(Multiple Choice)

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Question 77

Fluctuations in demand due to seasonality are greater than those due to randomness.

(True/False)

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Question 78

Exponential smoothing with an alpha of one will yield identical results to a last period forecast.

(True/False)

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Question 79

A long-term movement up or down in a time series is called:

When there is a significant upward or downward trend in the data, the two of the best forecasting models to use are adjusted exponential smoothing and linear regression.

________ is unpredictable movement from one time period to the next.

What distinguishes collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)systems from traditional planning approaches is the emphasis on forecasting.

A(n)________ forecasting model bases all forecasts on past actual values all the way back to the first period.

In order to indicate ________ in a forecast model, you should use the mean forecast error approach rather than the mean absolute deviation approach.

What is a collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment system and how might it benefit those who choose to use it?

Fluctuations in demand due to seasonality are greater than those due to randomness.

Exponential smoothing with an alpha of one will yield identical results to a last period forecast.

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