Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

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Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577 A B C D E F 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Seasonal effects are typically modeled using

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Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 388.88 X Variable 1 10.052 X Variable 2 4.248 X Variable 3 -79.917 X Variable 4 -296.008 X Variable 5 -84.924  Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 1 \end{array} & 10.052 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 2 \end{array} & 4.248 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 3 \end{array} & -79.917 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 4 \end{array} & -296.008 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 5 \end{array} & -84.924 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What formula should be entered in cell I3 to compute the Seasonal Value for year 1 Quarter 1? -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What formula should be entered in cell I3 to compute the Seasonal Value for year 1 Quarter 1?

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Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. A B C D E F G H I J 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sale s Level Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 331.25 -47.250 alpha 0.764 4 2 2 184 331.25 -147.250 beta 1.0 5 3 3 365 331.25 33.750 6 4 4 492 331.25 160.750 7 2 1 5 485 484.85 0.146 284.00 8 2 6 277 438.54 -161.541 337.60 10 4 8 722 556.41 165.591 701.47 11 3 1 9 763 714.17 48.827 556.56 12 2 10 593 745.02 -152.022 552.63 13 3 11 912 822.74 89.260 810.30 14 4 12 1145 942.47 202.534 988.33 15 16 17688.77 -Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

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Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regrassion Satisties Coefficients Intercept 114.136 X Variable 69.979 A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

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Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. A B C D E F G H I J 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sale s Level Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 331.25 -47.250 alpha 0.764 4 2 2 184 331.25 -147.250 beta 1.0 5 3 3 365 331.25 33.750 6 4 4 492 331.25 160.750 7 2 1 5 485 484.85 0.146 284.00 8 2 6 277 438.54 -161.541 337.60 10 4 8 722 556.41 165.591 701.47 11 3 1 9 763 714.17 48.827 556.56 12 2 10 593 745.02 -152.022 552.63 13 3 11 912 822.74 89.260 810.30 14 4 12 1145 942.47 202.534 988.33 15 16 17688.77 -Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the additive seasonal effects method?

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Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet? -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What are predicted sales for time period 13 using the data in the spreadsheet?

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Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. A B C D E F G H I J 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sale s Level Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 331.25 -47.250 alpha 0.764 4 2 2 184 331.25 -147.250 beta 1.0 5 3 3 365 331.25 33.750 6 4 4 492 331.25 160.750 7 2 1 5 485 484.85 0.146 284.00 8 2 6 277 438.54 -161.541 337.60 10 4 8 722 556.41 165.591 701.47 11 3 1 9 763 714.17 48.827 556.56 12 2 10 593 745.02 -152.022 552.63 13 3 11 912 822.74 89.260 810.30 14 4 12 1145 942.47 202.534 988.33 15 16 17688.77 -Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell G12 to compute the forecast for time period 10?

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Exhibit 11.2 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. A B C D E F 1 Number of 2-Month Weighted 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Avg. Weights 3 1 70 w1 0.244 4 2 80 w2 0.756 5 3 66 sum 1.000 6 4 74 76.59 7 5 64 67.95 8 6 76 71.56 9 7 72 66.93 10 8 82 75.02 11 9 82 74.44 12 10 76 82.00 13 11 84 80.54 14 12 80 77.95 15 16 MSE 26.72 -Refer to Exhibit 11.2.Which cell in the spreadsheet is the objective cell in the Risk Solver Platform RSP)task pane area?

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Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 388.88 X Variable 1 10.052 X Variable 2 4.248 X Variable 3 -79.917 X Variable 4 -296.008 X Variable 5 -84.924  Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 1 \end{array} & 10.052 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 2 \end{array} & 4.248 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 3 \end{array} & -79.917 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 4 \end{array} & -296.008 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 5 \end{array} & -84.924 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box? -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Exhibit 11.9 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a linear trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regrassion Satisties Coefficients Intercept 114.136 X Variable 69.979 A B C D E 1 Time Actual Linear 2 Year Qtr Period Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 184 254.1 5 3 3 365 324.1 6 4 4 492 394.1 7 2 1 5 485 464.0 8 2 6 277 534.0 9 3 7 606 604.0 10 4 8 722 674.0 11 3 1 9 763 743.9 12 2 10 593 813.9 13 3 11 912 883.9 14 4 12 1145 953.9 -Refer to Exhibit 11.9.What is the Input Y Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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Which of the following describes a multiplicative seasonal effect in times series data?

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Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 388.88 X Variable 1 10.052 X Variable 2 4.248 X Variable 3 -79.917 X Variable 4 -296.008 X Variable 5 -84.924  Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 1 \end{array} & 10.052 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 2 \end{array} & 4.248 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 3 \end{array} & -79.917 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 4 \end{array} & -296.008 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 5 \end{array} & -84.924 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

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A technique that analyzes past behavior of a time-series variable to predict the future is referred to as

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Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell H9 to compute the trend using the double moving average model with k = 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell H9 to compute the trend using the double moving average model with k = 4?

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Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 388.88 X Variable 1 10.052 X Variable 2 4.248 X Variable 3 -79.917 X Variable 4 -296.008 X Variable 5 -84.924  Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 1 \end{array} & 10.052 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 2 \end{array} & 4.248 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 3 \end{array} & -79.917 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 4 \end{array} & -296.008 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 5 \end{array} & -84.924 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box? -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What is the Input X Range in the Regression command settings dialog box?

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A time series which has a significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

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The term "stationary data" means that

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Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577  Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|r|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

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A time series which has no significant upward or downward trend is referred to as

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