Exam 11: Time Series Forecasting

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Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577  Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|r|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1? -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell F3 to compute the quadratic trend for year 1 Quarter 1?

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D

Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell E6 and copied to E7:E14)to compute the first average when using the double moving average method with k = 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell E6 and copied to E7:E14)to compute the first average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

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C

Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577 A B C D E F 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10.How is a quadratic term added to the problem if we want to develop a quadratic trend model?

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Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577  Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|r|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell C18 to compute the Seasonal Index value for quarter 1? -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell C18 to compute the Seasonal Index value for quarter 1?

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Exhibit 11.1 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. A B C 1 Number of 4-Month 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Ave 3 1 70 4 2 80 5 3 66 6 4 74 7 5 64 8 6 76 71.00 9 7 72 70.00 10 8 82 71.50 11 9 82 73.50 12 10 76 7.00 13 11 84 78.00 14 12 80 81.00 15 13 16 14 17 18 MSE 40.59 -Refer to Exhibit 11.1.If predicting the cars sold for time period 14,what formula must be placed in cell B16?

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How many indicator variables are required if there are p seasons in a time series and you are forecasting with a seasonal regression model?

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Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 388.88 X Variable 1 10.052 X Variable 2 4.248 X Variable 3 -79.917 X Variable 4 -296.008 X Variable 5 -84.924  Exhibit 11.12 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a seasonal regression model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is provided in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|c|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 388.88 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 1 \end{array} & 10.052 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 2 \end{array} & 4.248 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 3 \end{array} & -79.917 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 4 \end{array} & -296.008 \\ \hline \begin{array}{c} \text { X Variable } \\ 5 \end{array} & -84.924 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What Excel command can be used in cells F4:F14 in lieu of a formula based on the regression statistics? -Refer to Exhibit 11.12.What Excel command can be used in cells F4:F14 in lieu of a formula based on the regression statistics?

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Exhibit 11.4 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using the additive seasonal method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. A B C D E F G H I J 1 Time Actual Base Seasonal Predicted 2 Year Qtr Period Sale s Level Factor Sales 3 1 1 1 284 331.25 -47.250 alpha 0.764 4 2 2 184 331.25 -147.250 beta 1.0 5 3 3 365 331.25 33.750 6 4 4 492 331.25 160.750 7 2 1 5 485 484.85 0.146 284.00 8 2 6 277 438.54 -161.541 337.60 10 4 8 722 556.41 165.591 701.47 11 3 1 9 763 714.17 48.827 556.56 12 2 10 593 745.02 -152.022 552.63 13 3 11 912 822.74 89.260 810.30 14 4 12 1145 942.47 202.534 988.33 15 16 17688.77 -Refer to Exhibit 11.4.What formula should be entered in cell E7 to compute the remaining expected levels?

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The determination of the MSE-minimizing value of the wi is a non-linear optimization problem because

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Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method? -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell E3 to compute the base level when using the multiplicative seasonal effects method?

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Exhibit 11.2 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using weighted moving averages. A B C D E F 1 Number of 2-Month Weighted 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Avg. Weights 3 1 70 w1 0.244 4 2 80 w2 0.756 5 3 66 sum 1.000 6 4 74 76.59 7 5 64 67.95 8 6 76 71.56 9 7 72 66.93 10 8 82 75.02 11 9 82 74.44 12 10 76 82.00 13 11 84 80.54 14 12 80 77.95 15 16 MSE 26.72 -Refer to Exhibit 11.2.What formula should be entered in cell C6 to compute the 2-month weighted moving average forecast for month 3?

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Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577  Exhibit 11.11 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using seasonal indices.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table.   \begin{array}{|c|r|} \hline \begin{array}{l} \text { Regression } \\ \text { Statistics } \end{array} & \\ \hline & \text { Coefficients } \\ \hline \text { Intercept } & 263.4545 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 1 } & 5.985514 \\ \hline \text { X Variable 2 } & 4.922577 \\ \hline \end{array}     -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the Actual as a % of Trend value for year 1 Quarter 1? -Refer to Exhibit 11.11.What formula should be entered in cell G3 to compute the "Actual as a % of Trend" value for year 1 Quarter 1?

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Exhibit 11.10 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using a quadratic trend model.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.The relevant regression output is in the following table. Regression Statistics Coefficients Intercept 263.4545 X Variable 1 5.985514 X Variable 2 4.922577 A B C D E F 1 Time Actual Quadratic 2 Year Qtr Period 2 Sales Trend 3 1 1 1 1 284 4 2 2 4 184 295.1 5 3 3 9 365 325.7 6 4 4 16 492 366.2 7 2 1 5 25 485 416.4 8 2 6 36 277 476.6 9 3 7 49 606 546.6 10 4 8 64 722 626.4 11 3 1 9 81 763 716.1 12 2 10 100 593 815.6 13 3 11 121 912 924.9 14 4 12 144 1145 1044.1 -Refer to Exhibit 11.10.What are predicted sales for the fourth quarter of year 4?

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Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the Trend value for year 2 Quarter 1? -Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the Trend value for year 2 Quarter 1?

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Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model. Exhibit 11.5 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the multiplicative seasonal effects model.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the multiplicative seasonal effects model? -Refer to Exhibit 11.5.What formula should be entered in cell F7 to compute the seasonal factor using the multiplicative seasonal effects model?

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Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4. Exhibit 11.6 The following questions use the data below. A store wants to predict quarterly sales.The owner has collected 3 years of sales data and wants your help in analyzing the data using the double moving average model with k = 4.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell F9 to compute the second average when using the double moving average method with k = 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.6.What formula should be entered in cell F9 to compute the second average when using the double moving average method with k = 4?

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Seasonality in a time series is indicated by

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Which of the following describes an additive seasonal effect in times series data?

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Exhibit 11.1 The following questions use the data below. Honest Al's Used Cars wants to predict how many cars are sold each month.He has collected data for 12 months.He needs your help in analyzing this data using moving averages. A B C 1 Number of 4-Month 2 Time Period Cars Sold Moving Ave 3 1 70 4 2 80 5 3 66 6 4 74 7 5 64 8 6 76 71.00 9 7 72 70.00 10 8 82 71.50 11 9 82 73.50 12 10 76 7.00 13 11 84 78.00 14 12 80 81.00 15 13 16 14 17 18 MSE 40.59 -Refer to Exhibit 11.1.What Excel function will compute the root mean squared error in cell C18 of the spreadsheet?

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Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data. Exhibit 11.8 The following questions use the data below. Joe's Sporting Goods wants to forecast quarterly sales figures using Winter's method.The store has collected 12 quarters of data and needs your help to analyze the data.    -Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4? -Refer to Exhibit 11.8.What are predicted sales for the first quarter of year 4?

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