Question 1

As the number of replicates in a simulation increases the width of a confidence interval computed from the simulation results will

Accepted Answer

A) decrease. 
B) increase. 
C) remain the same. 
D) change depends on standard deviation. 
A) decrease. 
B) increase. 
C) remain the same. 
D) change depends on standard deviation. A

Question 2

What is the expected number of phone calls per hour based on the following distribution on the number of phone calls per hour?
 $\begin{array}{lllll}
&\text {A}&\text {B}&\text {C}&\text {D}\
&\text {\# of phone calls } & \text { P\# of phone calls)}&\text { \# of phone calls}&\text { P\# of phone calls) }\
1\
\hline2 & 1 & 0.10 & 1 & 0.10 \
3 & 2 & 0.40 & 2 & 0.50 \
4 & 3 & 0.30 & 3 & 0.80 \
5 & 4 & 0.15 & 4 & 0.95 \
6 & 5 & 0.05 & 5 & 1.00
\end{array}$

Accepted Answer

1*0.1)+2*0.4)+3*0.3)+4*0.15)+5*0.05)= 2.65

Question 3

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil.The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil.A case of oil generates a $10 profit.Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders the company loses the sale and profit).The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases.Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day.An average service level of 99% is desired.The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem.The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system.The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.
 $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | } 
\hline & \mathbf { A } & \mathbf { B } & \mathbf { C } & \mathbf { D } & \mathbf { E } & \mathbf { F } & \mathbf { G } \
\hline 1 & & & & & & & \
\hline
\end{array}$$  
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3,what formula should go in cell H8 to determine if an order should be placed?

Accepted Answer

A) =IFG8$D$3,1,0) 
C) =IFG8<$D$3,0,1) 
D) =IFG8<$D$4,1,0) 
A) =IFG8$D$3,1,0) 
C) =IFG8<$D$3,0,1) 
D) =IFG8<$D$4,1,0) A

Question 4

What is the correct Analytic Solver Platform function for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of children in families assume a reference to the current worksheet).
$$\begin{array} { c c c } 
& \text { A } & \text { B } \
& \text { \# of children } & \text { P\# of children) } \
1& & \
\hline 2 & 1 & 0.20 \
3 & 2 & 0.30 \
4 & 3 & 0.25 \
5 & 4 & 0.20 \
6 & 5 & 0.05
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

A) =PsiCustomA2:A6,B2:B6) 
B) =PsiRandomA2:A6,B2:B6) 
C) =PsiDiscreteA2:A6,B2:B6) 
D) =PsiUniformA2:A6,B2:B6) 
A) =PsiCustomA2:A6,B2:B6) 
B) =PsiRandomA2:A6,B2:B6) 
C) =PsiDiscreteA2:A6,B2:B6) 
D) =PsiUniformA2:A6,B2:B6)

Question 5

In running simulations under Analytic Solver Platform it is desirable to use more simulation runs because

Accepted Answer

A) confidence level regarding the decision precision is improved 
B) point estimates are more accurate 
C) simulation run length is decreased 
D) cost is decreased 
A) confidence level regarding the decision precision is improved 
B) point estimates are more accurate 
C) simulation run length is decreased 
D) cost is decreased

Question 6

How should one determine which RNGs to employ in a spreadsheet simulation model?

Accepted Answer

A) Use the Analytic Solver Platform gallery and pick a distribution. 
B) Generate thousands of samples and compare the resulting histogram to ensure the distribution is correct. 
C) Solve the deterministic model repeatedly and use Analytic Solver Platform distribution fitting tools. 
D) The distributions selected should represent the underlying pool of values expected to occur. 
A) Use the Analytic Solver Platform gallery and pick a distribution. 
B) Generate thousands of samples and compare the resulting histogram to ensure the distribution is correct. 
C) Solve the deterministic model repeatedly and use Analytic Solver Platform distribution fitting tools. 
D) The distributions selected should represent the underlying pool of values expected to occur.

Question 7

A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66.Of the 100 replications,11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100.What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

Accepted Answer

0.11 ± 1.9

Question 8

Jim Johnson operates a bus service to take college students to "The Big City" on Friday night and bring them back to school on Sunday night.The bus has 45 seats but sometimes there are empty seats.His records show that about 5% of ticket holders do not show up for their ride.Tickets cost $20 and are non-refundable.If Jim overbooks the bus and more than 45 passengers show up,some of them will be bumped and have to miss the trip.This bumping costs the company $40 because Jim has a double-your-money back policy for bumped passengers.Jim plans to accept 48 reservations overbook 3 seats).
 $\begin{array}{|c|c|c|c|}
\hline & \mathrm{A} & \text { B } & \mathrm{C} \
\hline 1 & & \text { Jim's Big City Bus } & \
\hline 2 & & \text { Reservation System } & \
\hline 3 & & & \
\hline 4 & & \text { SeatsAvailable } & 45 \
\hline 5 & & \text { Ticket Price per Seat } & \$ 20 \
\hline 6 & & \text { Prob. of No-Show } & 0.05 \
\hline 7 & & \text { Cost of Bumping } & \$ 40 \
\hline 8 & & \text { Reservations Accepted } & 48 \
\hline 9 & & & \
\hline 10 & & \text { P assengers to Board } & 47 \
\hline 11 & & & \
\hline 12 & & \text { Ticket Revenue } & \$ 960 \
\hline 13 & & \text { Opp. Cost of Empty Seats } & 0 \
\hline 14 & & \text { Cost of Bumping Passengers } & \$ 80 \
\hline 15 & & \text { Marginal Profit } & \$ 880 \
\hline & & \text { MODEL } & \
\hline
\end{array}$
 
What is Jim Johnson's expected marginal profit?

Accepted Answer

Revenue: 48 seats * $20 = $960
No shows:

Question 9

What is the probability that 3 or more phone calls are received in any hour of operation?
 $\begin{array}{lllll}
&\text {A}&\text {B}&\text {C}&\text {D}\
&\text {\# of phone calls } & \text { P\# of phone calls)}&\text { \# of phone calls}&\text { P\# of phone calls) }\
1\
\hline2 & 1 & 0.10 & 1 & 0.10 \
3 & 2 & 0.40 & 2 & 0.50 \
4 & 3 & 0.30 & 3 & 0.80 \
5 & 4 & 0.15 & 4 & 0.95 \
6 & 5 & 0.05 & 5 & 1.00
\end{array}$

Accepted Answer

1 ? P ? 2)

Question 10

Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information below.
The owner of Sal's Italian Restaurant wants to study the growth of his business using simulation.He is interested in simulating the number of customers and the amount ordered by customers each month.He currently serves 1000 customers per month and feels this can vary uniformly between a decrease of as much as 5% and an increase of up to 9%.The bill for each customer is a normally distributed random variable with a mean of $20 and a standard deviation of $5.The average order has been increasing steadily over the years and the owner expects the mean order will increase by 2% per month.You have created the following spreadsheet to simulate the problem.
-The spreadsheet model for Sal,from Exhibit 12.5,has been run 300 times to produce the following output.What is the best case scenario for Sal based on this output?
 $\begin{array}{|r|r|}
\hline \text { Simulation Statistics } & \
\hline \text { Name } & \text { Income/Revenue } \
\hline \begin{array}{c}
\text { Description } \

\end{array} & \text { Output } \
\hline \text { Cell } & \text { D21 } \
\hline \text { Minimum } & 211786.9 \
= & 2 \
\hline \text { Maximum } & 435002.7 \
= & 4 \
\hline \text { Mean= } & 4119518.9 \
&1\
\hline \text { Stcl } &  33831.4 \
 \text { Deviation= } &4 \
\hline
\end{array}$

Accepted Answer

The answer of Exhibit 12.5
The following questions use the information...

Question 11

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil.The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil.A case of oil generates a $10 profit.Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders the company loses the sale and profit).The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases.Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day.An average service level of 99% is desired.The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem.The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system.The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.
 $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | } 
\hline & \mathbf { A } & \mathbf { B } & \mathbf { C } & \mathbf { D } & \mathbf { E } & \mathbf { F } & \mathbf { G } \
\hline 1 & & & & & & & \
\hline
\end{array}$$  
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3,what Analytic Solver Platform function should be used for generating a random shipping time based on the Data spreadsheet distribution for shipping time?

Accepted Answer

A) =PsiCumul$B$6:$C$8) 
B) =PsiCustom$B$6:$B$8,$C$8:$C$8) 
C) =PsiGeneralData!$B$6,probability $C$8) 
D) =PsiDiscrete$B$6:$B$8,$C$8:$C$8) 
A) =PsiCumul$B$6:$C$8) 
B) =PsiCustom$B$6:$B$8,$C$8:$C$8) 
C) =PsiGeneralData!$B$6,probability $C$8) 
D) =PsiDiscrete$B$6:$B$8,$C$8:$C$8)

Question 12

Which of the following do not help determine the magnitude of risk in a decision-making problem?

Accepted Answer

A) The level of uncertainty in outcome. 
B) The magnitude of potential loss. 
C) The level of management interest in the problem. 
D) The level of uncertainty in input variables. 
A) The level of uncertainty in outcome. 
B) The magnitude of potential loss. 
C) The level of management interest in the problem. 
D) The level of uncertainty in input variables.

Question 13

Common discrete distributions available in Analytic Solver Platform are

Accepted Answer

A) binomial 
B) Poisson 
C) discrete 
D) all of the above 
A) binomial 
B) Poisson 
C) discrete 
D) all of the above

Question 14

Which of the following probability distributions are associated with continuous outcomes?
a.Poisson
b.Binomial
c.Custom
d.Triangular

Accepted Answer

d
Instructions: Answ

Question 15

Exhibit 12.3
The following questions use the information below.
An auto parts store wants to simulate its inventory system for engine oil.The company has collected data on the shipping time for oil and the daily demand for cases of oil.A case of oil generates a $10 profit.Customers can buy oil at any auto parts store so there are no backorders the company loses the sale and profit).The company orders 30 cases whenever the inventory position falls below the reorder point of 15 cases.Orders are placed at the beginning of the day and delivered at the beginning of the day so the oil is available on the arrival day.An average service level of 99% is desired.The following spreadsheets have been developed for this problem.The company has simulated 2 weeks of operation for their inventory system.The current level of on-hand inventory is 25 units and no orders are pending.
 $$\begin{array} { | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | l | } 
\hline & \mathbf { A } & \mathbf { B } & \mathbf { C } & \mathbf { D } & \mathbf { E } & \mathbf { F } & \mathbf { G } \
\hline 1 & & & & & & & \
\hline
\end{array}$$  
-Using the information in Exhibit 12.3,what formula should go in cell G9 to compute inventory position?

Accepted Answer

A) =G8+E9-IFH8=1,$D$4,0) 
B) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,$D$4,0) 
C) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,$D$5,0) 
D) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,0,$D$4) 
A) =G8+E9-IFH8=1,$D$4,0) 
B) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,$D$4,0) 
C) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,$D$5,0) 
D) =G8-E9+IFH8=1,0,$D$4)

Question 16

The best-case analysis approach to risk analysis

Accepted Answer

A) is optimistic 
B) is pessimistic 
C) is most likely 
D) is likely to produce good outcomes 
A) is optimistic 
B) is pessimistic 
C) is most likely 
D) is likely to produce good outcomes

Question 17

If a spreadsheet simulation user has a probability distribution that may assume 1 of 5 values with nearly equal probability,this user has what type of distribution?

Accepted Answer

A) A discrete distribution. 
B) A continuous distribution. 
C) A triangular distribution. 
D) A normal distribution. 
A) A discrete distribution. 
B) A continuous distribution. 
C) A triangular distribution. 
D) A normal distribution.

Question 18

Why would a manager be interested in analyzing risk?

Accepted Answer

A) To determine a most likely outcome. 
B) To determine a range of outcomes. 
C) To determine a distribution of outcomes. 
D) To determine a confidence interval on most likely outcomes. 
A) To determine a most likely outcome. 
B) To determine a range of outcomes. 
C) To determine a distribution of outcomes. 
D) To determine a confidence interval on most likely outcomes.

Question 19

Large sample size,n,is desirable because

Accepted Answer

A) upper and lower limits of the confidence interval for the true population proportion are closer to one another 
B) upper and lower limits of the confidence interval for the true population proportion are further apart 
C) point estimate of the population proportion is larger 
D) point estimate of the population proportion is smaller 
A) upper and lower limits of the confidence interval for the true population proportion are closer to one another 
B) upper and lower limits of the confidence interval for the true population proportion are further apart 
C) point estimate of the population proportion is larger 
D) point estimate of the population proportion is smaller

Question 20

Which Analytic Solver Platform function will generate random numbers between 3 and 7 from a continuous uniform distribution?

Accepted Answer

A) =PsiConUniform3,7) 
B) =PsiUniDist3,7) 
C) =PsiUniform3,7) 
D) =PsiTruncate3,7) 
A) =PsiConUniform3,7) 
B) =PsiUniDist3,7) 
C) =PsiUniform3,7) 
D) =PsiTruncate3,7)

As the number of replicates in a simulation increases the width of a confidence interval computed from the simulation results will

What is the expected number of phone calls per hour based on the following distribution on the number of phone calls per hour? A B C D \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) 1 2 1 0.10 1 0.10 3 2 0.40 2 0.50 4 3 0.30 3 0.80 5 4 0.15 4 0.95 6 5 0.05 5 1.00

What is the correct Analytic Solver Platform function for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of children in families assume a reference to the current worksheet). A B \# of children P\# of children) 1 2 1 0.20 3 2 0.30 4 3 0.25 5 4 0.20 6 5 0.05

In running simulations under Analytic Solver Platform it is desirable to use more simulation runs because

How should one determine which RNGs to employ in a spreadsheet simulation model?

A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66.Of the 100 replications,11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100.What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

What is the probability that 3 or more phone calls are received in any hour of operation? A B C D \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) 1 2 1 0.10 1 0.10 3 2 0.40 2 0.50 4 3 0.30 3 0.80 5 4 0.15 4 0.95 6 5 0.05 5 1.00

Which of the following do not help determine the magnitude of risk in a decision-making problem?

Common discrete distributions available in Analytic Solver Platform are

Which of the following probability distributions are associated with continuous outcomes? a.Poisson b.Binomial c.Custom d.Triangular

The best-case analysis approach to risk analysis

If a spreadsheet simulation user has a probability distribution that may assume 1 of 5 values with nearly equal probability,this user has what type of distribution?

Why would a manager be interested in analyzing risk?

Large sample size,n,is desirable because

Which Analytic Solver Platform function will generate random numbers between 3 and 7 from a continuous uniform distribution?

Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming

Modeling and Solving Lp Problems in a Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method

Network Modeling

Integer Linear Programming

Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization

Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization

Regression Analysis

Data Mining

Time Series Forecasting

Queuing Theory

Decision Analysis

Project Management Online

Filters

Exam 12: Introduction to Simulation Using Analytic Solver Platform

As the number of replicates in a simulation increases the width of a confidence interval computed from the simulation results will

What is the expected number of phone calls per hour based on the following distribution on the number of phone calls per hour? A B C D \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) 1 2 1 0.10 1 0.10 3 2 0.40 2 0.50 4 3 0.30 3 0.80 5 4 0.15 4 0.95 6 5 0.05 5 1.00

What is the correct Analytic Solver Platform function for generating random numbers from the following distribution on the number of children in families assume a reference to the current worksheet). A B \# of children P\# of children) 1 2 1 0.20 3 2 0.30 4 3 0.25 5 4 0.20 6 5 0.05

In running simulations under Analytic Solver Platform it is desirable to use more simulation runs because

How should one determine which RNGs to employ in a spreadsheet simulation model?

A simulation model was replicated 100 times yielding a mean of 82.59 with variance of 17.66.Of the 100 replications,11 replications yielded an outcome over a value of 100.What is the 95% confidence interval on the proportion of simulations whose outcomes exceeded a value of 100?

What is the probability that 3 or more phone calls are received in any hour of operation? A B C D \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) \# of phone calls P\# of phone calls) 1 2 1 0.10 1 0.10 3 2 0.40 2 0.50 4 3 0.30 3 0.80 5 4 0.15 4 0.95 6 5 0.05 5 1.00

Which of the following do not help determine the magnitude of risk in a decision-making problem?

Common discrete distributions available in Analytic Solver Platform are

Which of the following probability distributions are associated with continuous outcomes? a.Poisson b.Binomial c.Custom d.Triangular

The best-case analysis approach to risk analysis

If a spreadsheet simulation user has a probability distribution that may assume 1 of 5 values with nearly equal probability,this user has what type of distribution?

Why would a manager be interested in analyzing risk?

Large sample size,n,is desirable because

Which Analytic Solver Platform function will generate random numbers between 3 and 7 from a continuous uniform distribution?

Introduction to Modeling and Decision Analysis

Introduction to Optimization and Linear Programming

Modeling and Solving Lp Problems in a Spreadsheet

Sensitivity Analysis and the Simplex Method

Network Modeling

Integer Linear Programming

Goal Programming and Multiple Objective Optimization

Nonlinear Programming and Evolutionary Optimization

Regression Analysis

Data Mining

Time Series Forecasting

Queuing Theory

Decision Analysis

Project Management Online

Filters