Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecastng

Which of the following forecasting methods puts the least weight on the most recent time series value?

The objective of smoothing methods is to smooth out

Given an actual demand of 61, forecast of 58, and an  of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

Weekly sales of the Weber Dicamatic food processor for the past ten weeks have been: a. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three period or four period simple moving average model gives a better forecast for this problem. b. For each model, forecast sales for week 11.

Student enrollment at a university over the past six years is given below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast enrollment for year 10.

The temperature in Chicago has been recorded for the past seven days. You are given the information below. a.Produce exponential smoothing forecasts for the series using a smoothing constant of .2. b.Compute the mean square error for the forecasts produced with a smoothing constant of .2. c.What is the forecasted temperature for day 8? d.Is a smoothing constant of .2 or .3 better for the temperature data? Explain.

If the estimate of the trend component is 158.2, the estimate of the seasonal component is 94%, the estimate of the cyclical component is 105%, and the estimate of the irregular component is 98%, then the multiplicative model will produce a forecast of

The number of haircuts performed each day at KwikKuts in the last four weeks are listed below. a. Plot the sales data. Do you see both trend and seasonality components in the data? b. Forecast the number of haircuts to be performed in each workday of week 6.

The yearly series below exhibits a long-term trend. Use the appropriate forecasting technique to produce forecasts for years 11 and 12.

The time series pattern that exists when the data fluctuate around a constant mean is the

Gradual shifting or movement of a time series to relatively higher or lower values over a longer period of time is called

The time series pattern that reflects repeating variability within a single year is called the

The trend pattern is easy to identify by using

The sales records of a major auto manufacturer over the past ten years are shown below. Develop a linear trend expression and project the sales (the number of cars sold) for time period t = 11

The time series pattern showing an alternating sequence of points below and above the trend line lasting more than one year is the

Common types of data patterns that can be identified when examining a time series plot include all of the following except

Using exponential smoothing, the demand forecast for time period 10 equals the demand forecast for time period 9 plus

In situations where you need to compare forecasting methods for different time periods, the most appropriate accuracy measure is

Exhibit 15-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The slope of linear trend equation, b₁, is