Question 1

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

Accepted Answer

A) it is often due to multi-year business cycles 
B) it is often combined with long-term trend patterns and called trend-cycle patterns 
C) it is an alternating sequence of data points above and below the trend line 
D) it is usually easier to forecast than a seasonal pattern due to less variability 
A) it is often due to multi-year business cycles 
B) it is often combined with long-term trend patterns and called trend-cycle patterns 
C) it is an alternating sequence of data points above and below the trend line 
D) it is usually easier to forecast than a seasonal pattern due to less variability

Question 2

In the linear trend equation, T = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the

Accepted Answer

A) time 
B) slope of the trend line 
C) trend value in period 1 
D) the Y intercept 
A) time 
B) slope of the trend line 
C) trend value in period 1 
D) the Y intercept

Question 3

The following time series shows the number of units of a particular product sold over the past six months.
   
a.Compute a 3-month moving average (centered) for the above time series.
b.Compute the mean square error (MSE) for the 3-month moving average.
c.Use F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.
d.Forecast the sales volume for month 7.

Accepted Answer

a.5, 4, 7
b.MSE = 73

Question 4

Exhibit 15-2
Consider the following time series.
  
-Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 10 is

Accepted Answer

A) 10.0 
B) 25.0 
C) 30.0 
D) 22.5 
A) 10.0 
B) 25.0 
C) 30.0 
D) 22.5

Question 5

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is

Accepted Answer

A) moving averages 
B) mean squared error 
C) mean average deviation 
D) qualitative forecasting methods 
A) moving averages 
B) mean squared error 
C) mean average deviation 
D) qualitative forecasting methods

Question 6

Delta Corp's plant in Austin has been experiencing imbalances in its inventory of components used in the production of a line of computer printers. Both stock shortages and overstock conditions are occurring.
The production analysis group is studying the pattern of demand for component PS2400, a power supply used in many of Delta's products. The group believes that the most recent 12 weeks of demand for the PS2400 is representative of the future weekly demand:
   
a. Use a four-week moving average to develop a forecast of the demand for the PS2400 component in week 13.
b. Use a four-week weighted moving average with weights of .4 (for the most recent datum), .3, .2, and .1 to forecast the demand for the PS2400 component in week 13.

Accepted Answer

a. F₁₃ = (188 + 168 + 198 + 159)

Question 7

Exhibit 15-3
Consider the following time series.
  
-Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The slope of linear trend equation, b1, is

Accepted Answer

A) -1.5 
B) +1.5 
C) 8.3 
D) -8.3 
A) -1.5 
B) +1.5 
C) 8.3 
D) -8.3

Question 8

Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods.   The estimated regression equation for these data is
Yt = 16.23 + .52Yt-1 + .37Yt-2
The forecasted value for time period 27 is

Accepted Answer

A) 53.23 
B) 109.5 
C) 116.65 
D) 116.95 
A) 53.23 
B) 109.5 
C) 116.65 
D) 116.95

Question 9

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3,and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.

Accepted Answer

The answer of What is the forecast for July based...

Question 10

John has collected the following information on the amount of tips he has collected from parking cars the last seven nights.
   
a.Compute the 3-day moving averages for the time series.
b.Compute the mean square error for the forecasts.
c.Compute the mean absolute deviation for the forecasts.
d.Forecast John's tips for day 7.

Accepted Answer

a.19, 19,

Question 11

The quarterly sales (in thousands of copies) for a specific educational software over the past three years are given in the following table.
   
a.Compute the four seasonal factors (Seasonal Indexes). Show all of your computations.
b.The trend for these data is Trend = 174 + 4 t (t represents time, where t=1 for Quarter 1 of 2003 and t=12 for Quarter 4 of 2005). Forecast sales for the first quarter of 2006 using the trend and seasonal indexes. Show all of your computations.

Accepted Answer

a. @#IMG-DLM& b.Trend = 174 + 4 t = 174

Question 12

Exhibit 15-3
Consider the following time series.
  
-Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The intercept, b0, is

Accepted Answer

A) -1.5 
B) +1.5 
C) 8.3 
D) -8.3 
A) -1.5 
B) +1.5 
C) 8.3 
D) -8.3

Question 13

The actual demand for a product and the forecast for the product are shown below. Calculate MAD and MSE. Show all of your computations.

Accepted Answer

The answer of The actual demand for a product and...

Question 14

You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series:   The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is

Accepted Answer

A) .997 
B) 1.18 
C) 4 
D) 3 
A) .997 
B) 1.18 
C) 4 
D) 3

Question 15

You are given the following information on the quarterly profits for Ajax Corporation.
   
a.Find the four-quarter centered moving averages.
b.Compute the seasonal-irregular component.
c.Compute the seasonal factors for all four quarters.
d.Represent the deseasonalized series.

Accepted Answer

a.145, 146.25, 150, 153.75, 157.5, 161.2

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

In the linear trend equation, T = b₀ + b_1t, b₀ represents the

Exhibit 15-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 10 is

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The slope of linear trend equation, b₁, is

Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods. The estimated regression equation for these data is Y_t = 16.23 + .52Y_t-1 + .37Y_t-2 The forecasted value for time period 27 is

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3,and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The intercept, b₀, is

The actual demand for a product and the forecast for the product are shown below. Calculate MAD and MSE. Show all of your computations.

You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series: The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is

You are given the following information on the quarterly profits for Ajax Corporation. a.Find the four-quarter centered moving averages. b.Compute the seasonal-irregular component. c.Compute the seasonal factors for all four quarters. d.Represent the deseasonalized series.

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Presentations

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Comparisons Involving Means, Experimental Design, and Analysis of Variance

Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of Independence

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Filters

Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecastng

All of the following are true about a cyclical pattern except

In the linear trend equation, T = b0 + b1t, b0 represents the

Exhibit 15-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 10 is

The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The slope of linear trend equation, b1, is

Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods. The estimated regression equation for these data is Yt = 16.23 + .52Yt-1 + .37Yt-2 The forecasted value for time period 27 is

What is the forecast for July based on a three-month weighted moving average applied to the following past demand data and using the weights: 5, 3,and 2 (largest weight is for most recent data)? Show all of your computations for April through July.

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The intercept, b0, is

The actual demand for a product and the forecast for the product are shown below. Calculate MAD and MSE. Show all of your computations.

You are given the following information on the seasonal-irregular component values for a quarterly time series: The seasonal index for Quarter 1 is

You are given the following information on the quarterly profits for Ajax Corporation. a.Find the four-quarter centered moving averages. b.Compute the seasonal-irregular component. c.Compute the seasonal factors for all four quarters. d.Represent the deseasonalized series.

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Presentations

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Comparisons Involving Means, Experimental Design, and Analysis of Variance

Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of Independence

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Filters

In the linear trend equation, T = b₀ + b_1t, b₀ represents the

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The slope of linear trend equation, b₁, is

Below you are given some values of a time series consisting of 26 time periods. The estimated regression equation for these data is Y_t = 16.23 + .52Y_t-1 + .37Y_t-2 The forecasted value for time period 27 is

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The intercept, b₀, is