Question 1

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Accepted Answer

A) its statistical properties are independent of time 
B) a plot of the time series will always exhibit a horizontal pattern 
C) the process generating the data has a constant mean 
D) there is no variability in the time series over time 
A) its statistical properties are independent of time 
B) a plot of the time series will always exhibit a horizontal pattern 
C) the process generating the data has a constant mean 
D) there is no variability in the time series over time

Question 2

The following time series shows the sales of a clothing store over a 10-week period.
   
a.Compute a 4-week moving average for the above time series.
b.Compute the mean square error (MSE) for the 4-week moving average forecast.
c.Use F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 = 0.3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series.
d.Forecast sales for week 11.

Accepted Answer

a.17, 18, 19, 19, 20, 19
b.7.6

Question 3

Below you are given the first two values of a time series. You are also given the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast.   If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period three is

Accepted Answer

A) 18 
B) 19.2 
C) 20 
D) 40 
A) 18 
B) 19.2 
C) 20 
D) 40

Question 4

The sales records of a company over a period of seven years are shown below.
   
a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series.
b.Forecast sales for period 10.

Accepted Answer

a.T_t = 12 +

Question 5

The following data show the quarterly sales of a major auto manufacturer (introduced in exercise 4) for the years 8 through 10.
   
a.Compute the four-quarter moving average values for the above time series.
b.Compute the seasonal factors for the four quarters.
c.Use the seasonal factors developed in Part b to adjust the forecast for the effect of season for year 9.

Accepted Answer

a.180.00, 188.75, 201.25, 217.

Question 6

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

Accepted Answer

A) regression analysis 
B) deseasonalization 
C) decomposition 
D) exponential smoothing 
A) regression analysis 
B) deseasonalization 
C) decomposition 
D) exponential smoothing

Question 7

Exhibit 15-2
Consider the following time series.
  
-Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 5 is

Accepted Answer

A) 10.0 
B) 2.5 
C) 12.5 
D) 4.5 
A) 10.0 
B) 2.5 
C) 12.5 
D) 4.5

Question 8

A method of smoothing a time series that can be used to identify the combined trend/cyclical component is

Accepted Answer

A) the moving average 
B) the percent of trend 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) the trend/cyclical index 
A) the moving average 
B) the percent of trend 
C) exponential smoothing 
D) the trend/cyclical index

Question 9

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which pattern can be ignored?

Accepted Answer

A) trend 
B) seasonal 
C) cyclical 
D) horizontal 
A) trend 
B) seasonal 
C) cyclical 
D) horizontal

Question 10

Connie Harris, in charge of office supplies at First Capital Mortgage Corp., would like to predict the quantity of paper used in the office photocopying machines per month. She believes that the number of loans originated in a month influence the volume of photocopying performed. She has compiled the following recent monthly data:
   
a. Develop the least-squares estimated regression equation that relates sheets of photocopy paper used to loans originated.b). Use the regression equation developed in part (a) to forecast the amount of paper used in a month when 65 loan originations are expected.

Accepted Answer

a. Thus, the estimated regress

Question 11

Below you are given the seasonal factors and the estimated trend equation for a time series. These values were computed on the basis of 5 years of quarterly data.   T = 126.23 - 1.6t
Produce forecasts for all four quarters of year 6 by using the seasonal and trend components.

Accepted Answer

111.156, 8

Question 12

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

Accepted Answer

A) smoothing constant 
B) trend pattern 
C) mean absolute error 
D) seasonal index 
A) smoothing constant 
B) trend pattern 
C) mean absolute error 
D) seasonal index

Question 13

The following data show the quarterly sales of Amazing Graphics, Inc. for the years 6 through 8.
   
a.Compute the four-quarter moving average values for the above time series.
b.Compute the seasonal factors for the four quarters.
c.Use the seasonal factors developed in Part b to adjust the forecast for the effect of season for year 6.

Accepted Answer

a.Centered Moving Averages: 1.

Question 14

Actual sales for January through April are shown below.
   Use exponential smoothing with F1F1F1S1F1F1F10 = 0.2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all of your computations.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Actual sales for January through April are...

Question 15

Exhibit 15-3
Consider the following time series.
  
-Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The forecast for period 10 is

Accepted Answer

A) 6.7 
B) -6.7 
C) 23.3 
D) 15 
A) 6.7 
B) -6.7 
C) 23.3 
D) 15

Question 16

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the

Accepted Answer

A) linear trend regression model 
B) multiplicative decomposition model 
C) additive time series model 
D) weighted moving average model 
A) linear trend regression model 
B) multiplicative decomposition model 
C) additive time series model 
D) weighted moving average model

Question 17

A component of the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend behavior of a time series is

Accepted Answer

A) a trend component 
B) a cyclical component 
C) a seasonal component 
D) an irregular component 
A) a trend component 
B) a cyclical component 
C) a seasonal component 
D) an irregular component

Question 18

The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the

Accepted Answer

A) trend pattern 
B) seasonal pattern 
C) cyclical pattern 
D) trend and seasonal pattern 
A) trend pattern 
B) seasonal pattern 
C) cyclical pattern 
D) trend and seasonal pattern

Question 19

Consider the following annual series on the number of people assisted by a county human resources department.
   
a.Prepare 3-year moving average values to be used as forecasts for periods 4 through 11. Calculate the mean squared error (MSE) measure of forecast accuracy for periods 4 through 11.
b.
b.Use a smoothing constant of .4 to compute exponential smoothing values to be used as forecasts for periods 2 through 11. Calculate the MSE.
c.Compare the results in Parts a and b.

Accepted Answer

a.24.667, 25.333, 24.667, 23.333, 22, 23

Question 20

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Accepted Answer

A) they generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts 
B) they assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future 
C) they are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable 
D) they are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available 
A) they generally involve the use of expert judgment to develop forecasts 
B) they assume the pattern of the past will continue into the future 
C) they are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not applicable 
D) they are appropriate when past data on the variable being forecast are not available

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Below you are given the first two values of a time series. You are also given the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast. If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period three is

The sales records of a company over a period of seven years are shown below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast sales for period 10.

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

Exhibit 15-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 5 is

A method of smoothing a time series that can be used to identify the combined trend/cyclical component is

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which pattern can be ignored?

Below you are given the seasonal factors and the estimated trend equation for a time series. These values were computed on the basis of 5 years of quarterly data. T = 126.23 - 1.6t Produce forecasts for all four quarters of year 6 by using the seasonal and trend components.

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. Use exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all of your computations.

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The forecast for period 10 is

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the

A component of the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend behavior of a time series is

The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Presentations

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Comparisons Involving Means, Experimental Design, and Analysis of Variance

Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of Independence

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

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Exam 15: Time Series Analysis and Forecastng

All of the following are true about a stationary time series except

Below you are given the first two values of a time series. You are also given the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast. If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period three is

The sales records of a company over a period of seven years are shown below. a.Develop a linear trend expression for the above time series. b.Forecast sales for period 10.

A method that uses a weighted average of past values for arriving at smoothed time series values is known as

Exhibit 15-2 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-2. The forecast for period 5 is

A method of smoothing a time series that can be used to identify the combined trend/cyclical component is

If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which pattern can be ignored?

Below you are given the seasonal factors and the estimated trend equation for a time series. These values were computed on the basis of 5 years of quarterly data. T = 126.23 - 1.6t Produce forecasts for all four quarters of year 6 by using the seasonal and trend components.

One measure of the accuracy of a forecasting model is the

Actual sales for January through April are shown below. Use exponential smoothing with  = 0.2 to calculate smoothed averages and forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all of your computations.

Exhibit 15-3 Consider the following time series. -Refer to Exhibit 15-3. The forecast for period 10 is

The model that assumes that the actual time series value is the product of its components is the

A component of the time series model that results in the multi-period above-trend and below-trend behavior of a time series is

The time series pattern that reflects a gradual shift or movement to a relatively higher or lower level over a longer time period is called the

All of the following are true about qualitative forecasting methods except

Data and Statistics

Descriptive Statistics: Tabular and Graphical Presentations

Descriptive Statistics: Numerical Measures

Introduction to Probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling and Sampling Distributions

Interval Estimation

Hypothesis Tests

Comparisons Involving Means, Experimental Design, and Analysis of Variance

Comparisons Involving Proportions and a Test of Independence

Simple Linear Regression

Multiple Regression

Statistical Methods for Quality Control

Filters