Exam 10: Managing Demand and Forecasting

The Delphi method of forecasting is useful when

A causal model,time cannot be used as an independent variable.

The stability of a moving average forecast is inversely related to the number of periods included in the moving average.

The moving average gives a forecast of the mean value of demand in future periods,if there is no noticeable trend or seasonality in the data.

The process of developing a forecast based on gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity is called the Delphi method.

Table 10.7 -Use the information in Table 10.7.What is the MAD for months 2 through 5?

________ forecasting is a method that selects the best forecast from a group of forecasts generated by simple techniques.

Only a handful of organizations experience seasonal demand for their goods or services.

Table 10.4 -Use the information in Table 10.4.Use the three-month moving average method to forecast sales for June.

Table 10.9 -Use the information in Table 10.9.What is the standard deviation of forecast errors for the data?

There is an expectation that forecasting models do make errors.

There will be a lag behind the trend in actual demand when using single smooth forecasts.

One of the basic time series patterns is random.

The advantage of the simple moving average forecast is that it allows you to emphasize recent demand over earlier demand.

Table 10.7 -TOMBOW is a small manufacturer of pencils and has had the following sales record for the most recent five months: Use the information in Table 10.7.The forecast for month 2 is

The exponential smoothing method is a sophisticated weighted moving average method.

________ variables are the variables in linear regression analysis that are used to predict the measure or quantity being forecast

With the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing method,

In developing a regression equation of the form Y = a + bX,the intent is to use values of X to predict the likely outcome for the dependent variable Y.

Aggregating the sales of several products (product family forecasts)provides less accurate forecasts for total sales than developing separate forecasts for each product and adding up to forecast values.