Exam 10: Managing Demand and Forecasting

The owner of the Crossed Connections electronic appliance repair shop is enjoying increasing demand for her services.Total weekly demand,measured in standard labor hours,has been increasing.The owner uses trend-adjusted exponential smoothing to make forecasts for the following week so that she can plan work schedules and staffing levels.She has the following data to prepare her forecast: A_t-1 = 100 hours α = 0.30 T_t-1 = 10 hours β = 0.10 D_t = 120 hours Assuming she is now at the end of week t,what is the forecast for week t + 1?

Forecasts always contain errors.

Table 10.1 -Use the information in Table 10.1.What would be the forecast for September if the exponential smoothing technique were used? (α = 0.30 and the forecast for March was 55)

Delphi forecasting refers to a change in the forces that have acted on demand in the past.

Table 10.5 -Use the information in Table 10.5.Using the simple moving average technique for the most recent three months,what will be the forecasted demand for November?

Table 10.6 -Use the information in Table 10.6.Use the exponential smoothing method with ? = 0.5 to forecast the sales for year 5.

The management of a company specializing in securities analysis has been using two forecasting methods to follow a new stock issue. Forecast Method Which one of the following statements is TRUE?

Demand for a new five-inch color TV during the last six periods has been as follows: What is the forecast for period 7 if the company uses the simple moving average method with n = 4?

A seasonal demand time series has a repeatable of pattern increases or decreases in demand based on the week,month,or seasons of the year.

Consider the following data concerning the performance of a forecasting method.

A tracking signal greater than zero and a mean absolute deviation greater than zero imply that the forecast has

Demands for a newly developed salad bar at the Great Professional restaurant for the first six months of this year are shown below. What is the forecast for July if the weighted moving average method is used? (Use weights of 0.5 for the most recent demand,0.3,and 0.2. )

Table 10.5 -Use the information in Table 10.5.Using the weighted moving average technique and the following weights,what is the forecasted demand for November?

Table 10.6 -Use the information in Table 10.6.Use an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of 0.30 to forecast sales for year 5.

Table 10.5 -Use the information in Table 10.5.Using the exponential smoothing method,with alpha equal to 0.2,what is the forecasted demand for November? Use an initial value for the forecast (July)equal to 277 units.

Exponential smoothing is an expensive forecasting method.

Table 10.2 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly.Recent demand has been: -Use the information from Table 10.2.If a four-week weighted moving average were used,what would be the forecast for week 7? (The weights are 0.77,0.11,0.11,and 0.01. )

Table 10.8 A manager wants to forecast the monthly demand for a machine the company produces. -Use the information in Table 10.8.Calculate the MAD for months 4 through 6 for the three-month moving average forecasts.

Table 10.7 -The Classical Consultant Company provides forecasting research for clients such as a group of five doctors associated with a new hospital health maintenance program.The company has been asked to forecast the number of patients requesting blood analysis per week.The past weekly average is 38 and for the trend is 2 per week.This week's demand was 42 blood tests.How many patients Will come next week? (Suppose α = 0.10 and β = 0.30. )

An initial forecast must be obtained by another method,before beginning a series of exponentially smoothed forecasts.