Question 1

The Box-Jenkins method requires about 12 periods of past data.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  False

Question 2

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Accepted Answer

A) When historic data are unreliable 
B) When it is impossible to obtain historic data 
C) For short-range,repetitive decisions 
D) When making major,costly decisions,such as facilities location 
A) When historic data are unreliable 
B) When it is impossible to obtain historic data 
C) For short-range,repetitive decisions 
D) When making major,costly decisions,such as facilities location C

Question 3

A small company that manufactures plastic containers is attempting to select a method of forecasting yearly demand for the next 10 years.The company typically uses forecasts from sales representatives for yearly forecasts.The company has expanded its facilities,doubling capacity over the past years.Sales data for the last fifteen years are readily available. Which of the following forecasting methods would be preferred?

Accepted Answer

A) Qualitative 
B) Simple exponential smoothing 
C) Econometric 
D) Box-Jenkins 
A) Qualitative 
B) Simple exponential smoothing 
C) Econometric 
D) Box-Jenkins A

Question 4

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 5

A regression model is an example of which type of forecasting method?

Accepted Answer

A) Causal 
B) Historical analogy 
C) Qualitative 
D) Life-cycle analogy 
A) Causal 
B) Historical analogy 
C) Qualitative 
D) Life-cycle analogy

Question 6

Using the data from question 11,calculate the moving average forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

Accepted Answer

A) 60 
B) 43.25 
C) 57.75 
D) 55.25 
A) 60 
B) 43.25 
C) 57.75 
D) 55.25

Question 7

Tracking signal is the ratio between cumulative forecast error and the most recent estimate of mean absolute deviation.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 8

What are the three ways to accommodate forecasting errors?

Accepted Answer

(1)Reduce the error through be

Question 9

Which of the following is NOT one of the most important factors in selecting a forecasting model?

Accepted Answer

A) User and system sophistication 
B) Time and resources available 
C) Data availability 
D) Customer sophistication 
E) Data pattern 
A) User and system sophistication 
B) Time and resources available 
C) Data availability 
D) Customer sophistication 
E) Data pattern

Question 10

A time-series forecast model has only level,trend,and seasonal factor terms in it.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 11

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F5 = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

Accepted Answer

A) 33 
B) 31.7 
C) 30 
D) 20 
A) 33 
B) 31.7 
C) 30 
D) 20

Question 12

|Demand - Forecast| is:

Accepted Answer

A) Forecast error 
B) Mean absolute percentage error 
C) Absolute deviation of forecast error 
D) Mean absolute deviation of forecast error 
A) Forecast error 
B) Mean absolute percentage error 
C) Absolute deviation of forecast error 
D) Mean absolute deviation of forecast error

Question 13

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 2? (Use F1 = 25 and alpha = 0.2)

Accepted Answer

A) 21.0 
B) 24.0 
C) 32.0 
D) 53.0 
A) 21.0 
B) 24.0 
C) 32.0 
D) 53.0

Question 14

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

Accepted Answer

A) Aggregate planning 
B) Scheduling 
C) Process design 
D) Inventory management 
A) Aggregate planning 
B) Scheduling 
C) Process design 
D) Inventory management

Question 15

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

Accepted Answer

A) Regression 
B) Econometric model 
C) Input-output model 
D) Simulation model 
E) Time-series model 
A) Regression 
B) Econometric model 
C) Input-output model 
D) Simulation model 
E) Time-series model

Question 16

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

Accepted Answer

A) A forecast 
B) A performance measure 
C) A goal 
D) A production plan 
A) A forecast 
B) A performance measure 
C) A goal 
D) A production plan

Question 17

You are given that the forecast for the current period of 70 turned out to be 6 units less than the actual demand.The forecast for the next period is 75.8.What must alpha equal (rounded to 4 decimals)if a simple exponential smoothing forecast method were being used?

Accepted Answer

A) 0.0042 
B) 0.9667 
C) 0.0400 
D) 0.0967 
E) None of the above 
A) 0.0042 
B) 0.9667 
C) 0.0400 
D) 0.0967 
E) None of the above

Question 18

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

Accepted Answer

A) The basic strategy of time-series forecasting is to identify the magnitude and form of each component based on available past data. 
B) Time-series methods are used to make detailed analyses of past demand patterns over time and to project these patterns forward into the future. 
C) Under time-series methods,demand can be divided into components such as average level,trend,seasonality,cycle and error. 
D) Time-series methods are useful for long-range forecasts. 
E) a,b,and c 
A) The basic strategy of time-series forecasting is to identify the magnitude and form of each component based on available past data. 
B) Time-series methods are used to make detailed analyses of past demand patterns over time and to project these patterns forward into the future. 
C) Under time-series methods,demand can be divided into components such as average level,trend,seasonality,cycle and error. 
D) Time-series methods are useful for long-range forecasts. 
E) a,b,and c

Question 19

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 20

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120
Forecast = 180
MAD15 = 50
Alpha = 0.3

Accepted Answer

A) 77 
B) 53 
C) 17 
D) 43 
A) 77 
B) 53 
C) 17 
D) 43

The Box-Jenkins method requires about 12 periods of past data.

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

A regression model is an example of which type of forecasting method?

Using the data from question 11,calculate the moving average forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

Tracking signal is the ratio between cumulative forecast error and the most recent estimate of mean absolute deviation.

What are the three ways to accommodate forecasting errors?

Which of the following is NOT one of the most important factors in selecting a forecasting model?

A time-series forecast model has only level,trend,and seasonal factor terms in it.

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F₅ = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

|Demand - Forecast| is:

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 2? (Use F₁ = 25 and alpha = 0.2)

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

You are given that the forecast for the current period of 70 turned out to be 6 units less than the actual demand.The forecast for the next period is 75.8.What must alpha equal (rounded to 4 decimals)if a simple exponential smoothing forecast method were being used?

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD₁₅ = 50 Alpha = 0.3

The Operations Function

Operations and Supply Chain Strategy

Product Design

Process Selection

Service Process Design

Process-Flow Analysis

Lean Thinking and Lean Systems

Managing Quality

Quality Control and Improvement

Supply Chain Management

Capacity Planning

Scheduling Operations

Project Planning and Scheduling

Independent Demand Inventory

Materials Requirements Planning and ERP

Filters

Exam 11: Forecasting

The Box-Jenkins method requires about 12 periods of past data.

When should qualitative methods NOT be used?

Simple exponential smoothing forecasts are reliable for forecasting long-term demand patterns.

A regression model is an example of which type of forecasting method?

Using the data from question 11,calculate the moving average forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:

Tracking signal is the ratio between cumulative forecast error and the most recent estimate of mean absolute deviation.

What are the three ways to accommodate forecasting errors?

Which of the following is NOT one of the most important factors in selecting a forecasting model?

A time-series forecast model has only level,trend,and seasonal factor terms in it.

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F5 = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

|Demand - Forecast| is:

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 2? (Use F1 = 25 and alpha = 0.2)

A qualitative forecast would most likely be used for:

A method of forecasting that best describes the flows from one sector of the economy to another is called:

If a sales representative tells his or her manager,"I hope to sell 20% more than last year," this should be considered:

You are given that the forecast for the current period of 70 turned out to be 6 units less than the actual demand.The forecast for the next period is 75.8.What must alpha equal (rounded to 4 decimals)if a simple exponential smoothing forecast method were being used?

Which of the following statements is/are true about time-series forecasting?

All forecasts should include two estimates: An estimate of the demand and an estimate of the forecasting error.

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD15 = 50 Alpha = 0.3

The Operations Function

Operations and Supply Chain Strategy

Product Design

Process Selection

Service Process Design

Process-Flow Analysis

Lean Thinking and Lean Systems

Managing Quality

Quality Control and Improvement

Supply Chain Management

Capacity Planning

Scheduling Operations

Project Planning and Scheduling

Independent Demand Inventory

Materials Requirements Planning and ERP

Filters

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 6? (Use F₅ = 33 and alpha = 0.0)

What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week 2? (Use F₁ = 25 and alpha = 0.2)

Given the following information for period 15,what will be the smoothed mean absolute deviation for period 16? Demand = 120 Forecast = 180 MAD₁₅ = 50 Alpha = 0.3