Exam 4: Decision Analysis

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States of nature

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Which of the following approaches to decision making requires knowledge of the probabilities of the states of nature?

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Circular nodes in a decision tree indicate that it would be incorrect to choose a path from the node.

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Which of the methods for decision making best protects the decision maker from undesirable results?

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Lakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores.Information on pricing,sales,and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table,in thousands. ​ ​ Lakewood Fashions must decide how many lots of assorted ski wear to order for its three stores.Information on pricing,sales,and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table,in thousands. ​ ​     a.What decision should be made by the optimist? b.What decision should be made by the conservative? c.What decision should be made using minimax regret? a.What decision should be made by the optimist? b.What decision should be made by the conservative? c.What decision should be made using minimax regret?

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​Decision tree probabilities refer to the probability of

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Square nodes in a decision tree indicate that a decision must be made.

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A payoff table is given as ​ A payoff table is given as ​     a.What decision should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b.What decision should be made by the conservative decision maker? c.What decision should be made under minimax regret? d.​ If the probabilities of s<sub>1</sub>,s<sub>2</sub>,and s<sub>3</sub> are .2,.4,and .4,respectively,then what decision should be made under expected value? e.What is the EVPI? a.What decision should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b.What decision should be made by the conservative decision maker? c.What decision should be made under minimax regret? d.​ If the probabilities of s1,s2,and s3 are .2,.4,and .4,respectively,then what decision should be made under expected value? e.What is the EVPI?

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​Which of the following is not an advantage of using decision tree analysis?

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