Exam 6: Probability

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A(n)____________________ of a random experiment is a list of all possible outcomes of the experiment.

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College Professorship A Ph.D.graduate has applied for a job with two colleges: A and B.The graduate feels that she has a 60% chance of receiving an offer from college A and a 50% chance of receiving an offer from college B.If she receives an offer from college B,she believes that she has an 80% chance of receiving an offer from college A.Let A = receiving an offer from college A,and let B = receiving an offer from college B. -{College Professorship Narrative} What is the probability that at least one college will make her an offer?

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.6 + .5 -.4 = 0.7

If A and B are mutually exclusive events with P(A)= 0.30 and P(B)= 0.40,then P(A or B)is:

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C

P(A)+ P(B)= 1 for any events A and B that are mutually exclusive.

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If P(A)= 0.35,P(B)= 0.45,and P(A and B)= 0.25,then P(A|B)is:

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If two events are collectively exhaustive,what is the probability that both occur at the same time?

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Two events A and B are said to be independent if P(A)= P(A|B).

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Construction Bids A construction company has submitted bids on two separate state contracts,A and B.The company feels that it has a 60% chance of winning contract A,and a 50% chance of winning contract B.Furthermore,the company believes that it has an 80% chance of winning contract A if it wins contract B. -{Construction Bids Narrative} What is the probability that the company will win both contracts?

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A(n)____________________ is a collection or set of one or more simple events in a sample space.

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Thomas ____________________ first employed the calculation of conditional probability.

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If events A and B cannot occur at the same time,they are called mutually exclusive.

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If A and B are independent events with P(A)= 0.20 and P(B)= 0.60,then P(A|B)is:

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Cysts After researching cysts of a particular type,a doctor learns that out of 10,000 such cysts examined,1,500 are malignant and 8,500 are benign.A diagnostic test is available which is accurate 80% of the time (whether the cyst is malignant or not).The doctor has discovered the same type of cyst in a patient. -{Cysts Narrative} In the absence of any test,what is the probability that the cyst is malignant?

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The probability of the union of two mutually exclusive events A and B is 0.

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Certification Test A standard certification test was given at three locations.1,000 candidates took the test at location A,600 candidates at location B,and 400 candidates at location C.The percentages of candidates from locations A,B,and C who passed the test were 70%,68%,and 77%,respectively.One candidate is selected at random from among those who took the test. -{Certification Test Narrative} What is the probability that the selected candidate took the test at location C and failed?

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -Two events A and B are independent if P(A and B)= 0.

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If A and B are disjoint events with P(A)= 0.70,then P(B):

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A posterior probability value is a prior probability value that has been:

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Condo Sales and Interest Rates The probability that condo sales will increase in the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.30.The probability that the interest rates on condo loans will go up in the same period is estimated to be 0.75.The probability that condo sales or interest rates will go up during the next 6 months is estimated to be 0.90. -Bayes' Law can be used to calculate posterior probabilities,prior probabilities,as well as new conditional probabilities.

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Equity Loan Rates A survey of banks estimated the following probabilities for the interest rate being charged on a equity loan based on a 30-year loan,based on past records. Interest Rate 0.0\% 6.5\% 7.0\% 7.5\% >7.5\% Probability 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 .04 -The probability of the intersection is called a joint probability.

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