Question 1

The time series component that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called:

Accepted Answer

A)  long-term trend 
B)  cyclical variation 
C)  seasonal variation 
D)  random variation 
A)  long-term trend 
B)  cyclical variation 
C)  seasonal variation 
D)  random variation B

Question 2

We compute the five-period moving averages for all time periods except the first two and last two time periods.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False  True

Question 3

The trend line and seasonal indexes shown below were computed from four weeks of daily observations.Forecast the seven values for the next week.
Trend Line: $\tilde { y } _ { t }$ = 145 + 1.66t (t = 1,2,3,...28)
 $$\begin{array} { | l | c | } 
\hline \text { Day } & \boldsymbol { SI } _ { \mathbf { t } } \
\hline \text { Sunday } & 1.403 \
\text { Munday } & {0 .517 } \
\text { Tuesday } & 0 .515 \
\text { Wednesday } & 0.621 \
\text { Thursday } & 0 .675 \
\text { Friday } & 1.145 \
\text { Saturday } & 2.124 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

The answer of The trend line and seasonal indexes shown...

Question 4

Which of the following will not be present in a deseasonalized time series?

Accepted Answer

A)  Trend effects 
B)  Cyclical variation 
C)  Seasonal variation 
D)  Random variation 
A)  Trend effects 
B)  Cyclical variation 
C)  Seasonal variation 
D)  Random variation

Question 5

Which of the following statements about the method of exponential smoothing is not true?

Accepted Answer

A)  It gives greater weight to more recent data 
B)  It can be used for forecasting 
C)  It uses all earlier observations in each smoothing calculation 
D)  It gives greater weight to the earlier observations in the series 
A)  It gives greater weight to more recent data 
B)  It can be used for forecasting 
C)  It uses all earlier observations in each smoothing calculation 
D)  It gives greater weight to the earlier observations in the series

Question 6

Photo Equipment Store Earnings
The quarterly earnings of a chain of Photo Equipment stores have been recorded for the years 2011-2014.These data (in millions of dollars)are shown in the accompanying table.
 $$\begin{array}{l}
\text { Year }\
\begin{array} { | c | c c c c | } 
\hline \text { Quarter } & 2011 & 2012 & 2013 & 2014 \
\hline 1 & 65 & 70 & 73 & 79 \
2 & 80 & 88 & 90 & 95 \
3 & 98 & 103 & 107 & 111 \
4 & 67 & 74 & 76 & 80 \
\hline
\end{array}
\end{array}$$
-The trend line $\tilde { y } _ { t }$ = 1800 + 75t - 2t2 and seasonal indexes shown in the table below were computed from five years of quarterly observations.Forecast the four quarterly values for next year.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c | } 
\hline \text { Quarter } & \mathbf { SI } _ { \mathbf { t } } \
\hline 1 & 0.575 \
2 & 0.825 \
3 & 1.225 \
4 & 1.375 \
\hline
\end{array}$$

Accepted Answer

The answer of Photo Equipment Store Earnings
The quarterly earnings of...

Question 7

Which of the four time series components is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Las Vegas from 1964 to 2004?

Accepted Answer

A)  Long-term trend 
B)  Cyclical variation 
C)  Seasonal variation 
D)  Random variation 
A)  Long-term trend 
B)  Cyclical variation 
C)  Seasonal variation 
D)  Random variation

Question 8

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 9

Quarterly Sales
The quarterly sales (in millions of dollars)of a Motorcycle Dealership were recorded for the years 2011-2014.They are listed below.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | c c | } 
\hline \text { Year } & \text { Quarter } & \text { Sales } \
\hline 2011 & 1 & 21 \
& 2 & 36 \
& 3 & 28 \
& 4 & 44 \
\hline 2012 & 1 & 25 \
& 2 & 23 \
& 3 & 39 \
& 4 & 36 \
\hline 2013 & 1 & 30 \
& 2 & 41 \
& 3 & 47 \
& 4 & 55 \
\hline 2014 & 1 & 34 \
& 2 & 29 \
& 3 & 32 \
& 4 & 48 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{Quarterly Sales Narrative} Graph the time series and the moving averages.What can you conclude from your time-series smoothing?

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& There appears to be

Question 10

If avoiding large errors is important,____________________ should be used because it penalizes large deviations more heavily than does MAD.

Accepted Answer

SSE
sum of

Question 11

Smoothing time series data by the moving average method or exponential smoothing method is an attempt to remove the effect of the random variation component.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 12

Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows.
 $$\begin{array} { l | l } 
2011 & 270 \
2012 & 356 \
2013 & 398 \
2014 & 456 \
2015 & 358 \
2016 & 500 \
2017 & 410 \
2018 & 376
\end{array}$$
-{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 3-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2015 is ____________________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor...

Question 13

Coffee Imports
The coffee imports (in millions of dollars)from a Latin American country for 10 years are shown below.
 $$\begin{array} { | c | r c | } 
\hline \text { Year } & t & \text { Exports } \
\hline 2011 & 1 & 96 \
2012 & 2 & 110 \
2013 & 3 & 125 \
2014 & 4 & 141 \
2015 & 5 & 132 \
2016 & 6 & 126 \
2017 & 7 & 118 \
2018 & 8 & 125 \
2019 & 9 & 133 \
2020 & 10 & 148 \
\hline
\end{array}$$
-{The Pyramids of Giza Narrative} Calculate the four-quarter centered moving averages and use it to calculate the seasonal (quarterly)indexes.

Accepted Answer

@#IMG-DLM& \[\begin{array} { | c | c c c c | c | }

Question 14

Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows.
 $$\begin{array} { l | l } 
2011 & 270 \
2012 & 356 \
2013 & 398 \
2014 & 456 \
2015 & 358 \
2016 & 500 \
2017 & 410 \
2018 & 376
\end{array}$$
-{Liquor Sales Narrative} A centered 5-year moving average is to be constructed for the liquor sales.The moving average for 2013 is ____________________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor...

Question 15

The principle of parsimony indicates that the simplest model that gets the job done adequately should be used.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 16

The trend line $\tilde { y } _ { t }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is 0.86.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

Question 17

MAD stands for ____________________ absolute deviation.

Accepted Answer

The answer of MAD stands for ____________________ absolute deviation....

Question 18

For which of the following values of the smoothing constant w will the smoothed series catch up most quickly whenever the original time series changes direction?

Accepted Answer

A)  0.90 
B)  0.50 
C)  0.40 
D)  0.10 
A)  0.90 
B)  0.50 
C)  0.40 
D)  0.10

Question 19

Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor sold by a liquor wholesaler in an 8-year period follows.
 $$\begin{array} { l | l } 
2011 & 270 \
2012 & 356 \
2013 & 398 \
2014 & 456 \
2015 & 358 \
2016 & 500 \
2017 & 410 \
2018 & 376
\end{array}$$
-{Liquor Sales Narrative} Exponential smoothing with a weight or smoothing constant of 0.4 will be used to forecast liquor sales.The forecast for 2019 is ____________________.

Accepted Answer

The answer of Liquor Sales
The number of cases of liquor...

Question 20

The easiest way of measuring the long-term trend is by regression analysis,where time is the dependent variable.

Accepted Answer

A) True 
 B)False

The time series component that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called:

We compute the five-period moving averages for all time periods except the first two and last two time periods.

Which of the following will not be present in a deseasonalized time series?

Which of the following statements about the method of exponential smoothing is not true?

Which of the four time series components is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Las Vegas from 1964 to 2004?

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

If avoiding large errors is important,____________________ should be used because it penalizes large deviations more heavily than does MAD.

Smoothing time series data by the moving average method or exponential smoothing method is an attempt to remove the effect of the random variation component.

The principle of parsimony indicates that the simplest model that gets the job done adequately should be used.

The trend line $\tilde { y } _ { t }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is 0.86.

MAD stands for ____________________ absolute deviation.

For which of the following values of the smoothing constant w will the smoothed series catch up most quickly whenever the original time series changes direction?

The easiest way of measuring the long-term trend is by regression analysis,where time is the dependent variable.

What Is Statistics

Graphical Descriptive Techniques I

Graphical Descriptive Techniques II

A: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

B: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

C: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

Data Collection and Sampling

Probability

A: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

B: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling Distributions

Introduction to Estimation

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Inference About a Population

Inference About Comparing Two Populations

Analysis of Variance

Chi-Squared Tests

A: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

B: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

Multiple Regression

Model Building

Nonparametric Statistics

Statistical Process Control

Decision Analysis

Conclusion

Filters

Exam 20: Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting

The time series component that reflects a wavelike pattern describing a long-term trend that is generally apparent over a number of years is called:

We compute the five-period moving averages for all time periods except the first two and last two time periods.

Which of the following will not be present in a deseasonalized time series?

Which of the following statements about the method of exponential smoothing is not true?

Which of the four time series components is more likely to exhibit the relative steady growth of the population of Las Vegas from 1964 to 2004?

Given a data set with 15 yearly observations,there are only thirteen 3-year moving averages.

If avoiding large errors is important,____________________ should be used because it penalizes large deviations more heavily than does MAD.

Smoothing time series data by the moving average method or exponential smoothing method is an attempt to remove the effect of the random variation component.

The principle of parsimony indicates that the simplest model that gets the job done adequately should be used.

The trend line y~t\tilde { y } _ { t }y~​t​ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is 0.86.

MAD stands for ____________________ absolute deviation.

For which of the following values of the smoothing constant w will the smoothed series catch up most quickly whenever the original time series changes direction?

The easiest way of measuring the long-term trend is by regression analysis,where time is the dependent variable.

What Is Statistics

Graphical Descriptive Techniques I

Graphical Descriptive Techniques II

A: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

B: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

C: Numerical Descriptive Techniques

Data Collection and Sampling

Probability

A: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

B: Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

Continuous Probability Distributions

Sampling Distributions

Introduction to Estimation

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing

Inference About a Population

Inference About Comparing Two Populations

Analysis of Variance

Chi-Squared Tests

A: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

B: Simple Linear Regression and Correlation

Multiple Regression

Model Building

Nonparametric Statistics

Statistical Process Control

Decision Analysis

Conclusion

Filters

The trend line $\tilde { y } _ { t }$ = 0.75 + 0.005t was calculated from quarterly data for 2000-2004,where t = 1 for the first quarter of 2000.The trend value for the second quarter of the year 2005 is 0.86.